8/11/2004 11:11:52 PM|||Shep|||Well, the basketball news has slowed down significantly since last week... So, I've decided to actually write an article. I don't exactly have tons of free time on my hands, so I'm starting with a simple analysis of the top scorers from last season and how they should perform in the upcoming season (with respect to points only). I'll add other stats to my spreadsheet as I go for further (and more in depth) analysis. After all, the major sites don't have anything better in the way of fantasy basketball yet anyway. Their all so concerned with fantasy football. I look football a lot (and I think the recent football games [2004] are better than the same year's basketball games), but I don't have time for being an authority on both. At least not right now...

(As a side note, I don't think there's anyone in the top 50 scorers [I've got the top 10 below] who would be a bad pick if you're looking for someone to fill up the points category. That said, points is probably one of the easier stats to acquire - not that it's trivial, of course - just that's it's easier to influence than something like FG%).

Here we go:

1. Tracy McGrady - Houston Rockets: T-Mac led the league with 28 ppg last season. Of course, he was also on the worst team in the league. Now he's got the Ming Dynasty as his team's primary scoring option. I have to think his scoring will go down, but with Y-Ming collapsing defenses, he may get better looks than he had last season. I'll go with less points, but not too much less. Final answer.

2. Predrag Stojakovic - Sacramento Kings (?): Mr. December has asked for a trade and rumor has it he's peeved about the Kings letting his buddy Divac go to the Lakers. When C-Webb came back last season, P-Stoj's scoring went from 25 to 21 ppg. I'd be looking at somewhere in the 20-21 range for this season, putting him in the top 20, but not the top 10.

3. Kevin Garnett - Timberwolves: Same as last season (24 ppg). No reason things are going to change.

4. Kobe Bryant - Lakers: K-Bry is most certainly going to do more scoring than last season. Sure, he's got L-Od, and C-But to fill in the hole left by Shaq-O's departure. But he's not going to let them shoot it is he? Really? I don't think so. The Lakers are his team now. I can see him getting up to the 28 point range where T-Mac was last season.

5. Paul Pierce - Celtics: The Truth should be getting more open looks (hopefully) with running the offense in Boston. If that doesn't increase his point totals, it should at least improve his miserable 40% shooting (30% behind the arc).

6. Baron Davis - Hornets: B-Dave is money. His FG% is pretty bunk, but he'll put the ball in the hoop.

7. Vince Carter - Raptors: Vinsanity will once again be the #1 scoring option on the Raptors. This is assuming he doesn't get traded. At least not to the Heat, the Lakers, the Spurs or the T'Wolves. I think those are the only teams he could be on that would cause his scoring output to drop. His health is always a ?, but his scoring never is.

8. Tim Duncan - Spurs: 22.5 last season = 22.5 this season. The Barrister (as I have now dubbed Brent Barry) will take over H-Turk's scoring. Everything else is pretty much the same.

9. Dirk Nowitzki - Mavericks: Without A-Jam, Antoine Skywalker, and S-Nash around, Dirk should up his scoring from 22 back to his 2002 level of about 25. Without Jamison, SkyWalker, and Fortson around he'll probably pick up more rebounds as well. Not that he was ever not a first round pick, but I'd say put him up there.

10. Michael Redd - Bucks: M-Redd is "reddy." He's the #1 option on the Bucks, and their other options are Desmond Mason, Joe Smith, and KVH. The league knows about him, though, and they know what the Bucks other options are... so he might see more defense than in the past. He'll still be right around 20 ppg since he'll get the looks, but the pressure might lower his FG%.

So, that's 10 right there. I'll come with the rest when I get there... Also, after looking at a couple sites, I noticed that NBA.com only gave me players who played a minimum number of games or scored a minimum number of points. The guys left off the list are hard to overlook, though, so my omission doesn't mean that you should forget about Allen Iverson or anyone like that.
|||109215461499810943|||Top 50 Scorers (1-10)