9/1/2004 03:28:57 PM|||Shep|||Beginning a Rotisserie Analysis

Now, though I prefer head-to-head leagues, I know there probably more Rotisserie leagues out
there (in addition to other kinds that I don't even know about); so, I'm starting a statistical
analysis aimed at Rotisserie leagues which I hope will result in a way to value players based on
what they provide their fantasy teams. If the stars align (let me go check my moon calendar),
the results of this intensive study will be applicable to leagues outside of the Roto World.

The premise of my analysis begins with the realization that some stats - like Blocks and 3-
pointers - are more rare than others, say Points. My attempt at equation development jumps off from there... I hope people can understand it. I am happy to take any constructive criticism
and/or comments. That's why comments are enabled and there's a link to my email in the sidebar.

Without Further Ado

I started by totalling up common Roto categories for the entire NBA: 3-Pointers Made, Total
Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, Turnovers, and Points. Each of these categories was used as
a numerator in determining the percentage of total overall stats (I don't know how to say that
any better). Perhaps an example: The total number of Points scored in the league last year was 222,097. The total number of stats (for the denominator) was 439,612. So: 222,097 / 439,612 = 50.52%.

The percentages I came up with are as follow:
3PM: 2.8
REB: 22.83
AST: 11.52
STL: 4.29
BLK: 2.73
TO: 8.10
PTS: 50.52

The relative-value-of-rarer-stats light went off in my head last season, but I didn't know I'd
be writing a fantasy basketball weblog at that point, so a lot of the data I had was lost. So,
I decided to work on this during the off-season and post my work up here to hopefully stimulate
some conversation from people who might have done some work in this area before.
As a rough draft of my "equation" for calculating players' values I took the inverse of the %
and multiplied that by the player's actual stat total for that category. This method places
more emphasis on the rarer categories, and I hope will represent a true Roto value of a player.
I have only worked this equation mojo on a couple players so far, so I will post later with a
larger sample of results. I just wanted to post this to see if any readers had anything to say.|||109404899709909370|||Rotisserie Basketball Statistical Analysis (Part 1)