Give Me The Rock

And it only took about 5 hours from the time I saw it on NBA.com to get to the Blogosphere. The aptly-named NBA Source gets the square.

First, the Meeting Minutes from last time:

Manu played 30/game. Bowen played 32. That leaves 34 for Barry and Finley to split. Barry had (emphasis on the HAD) 21.5 minutes last season. I’d expect with the lineup the way it is now that Duncan would spend more time at Center. Not that he’s going to necessarily play more than the 34 or so he did previously (apologies to everyone with him as their top keeper… also known as: Me). But with Captain Boring in the middle, the Spurs can probably get away with Manu at the point, Bowen at SG, Finley at SF, and Horry at PF.

Shows what I know about coaching a basketball team.

No matter how the cookie crumbles, nor how delicious the cookie is, Finley won’t be playing as much as last year. There’s just not 37 minutes there to give him. Which is probably fine by him since he’s 32, and I’m sure The Pop made it clear that he’d be filling a reserve role on the team.

Given that, Finley will certainly not be holding down the spot at number 45 again in this years fantasy drafts. His percent owned number is also likely to drop from the 96% he achieved in the double-0 5. Per 48, the dude’s only giving you 20, 5.3, and 3.4. If you cut that in half (or even in 2/3), it will clearly affect his chances to be a major part of anyone’s fantasy team. He’ll still probably hit about 2 three-pointers a game, which is good for something, but alongside 14, 4, 2 … it’s not hot like the summer in San Antonio. FT% will remain strong, so if you need some good free-throw shooting and a few extra three’s throw Finley a bone. Otherwise, I say look for someone a little meatier.

*Editor’s Note: This is one of those predictions that I don’t feel very strongly about. It’s more just a hunch than a real opinion that I’m willing to certify. That said, I don’t see how Finley could get enough time to produce more than what I’m aiming for here. But then again, maybe that’s the idea.

Another wonderful coincidence. A recent Daily Inspiration came to remind me of another article I’d been meaning to write. It’s kind of a short one, but this advice is good for life, as well as any fantasy sports in which one chooses to participate:

“Never regret. If it’s good, it’s wonderful. If it’s bad, it’s experience.”

– Victoria Holt

It’s really as simple as that. When drafting, trading, picking free agents or anything else related to fantasy basketball, don’t look back in anger. Don’t keep a single shred of doubt regarding any draft pick or trade you make. If you want to break this rule, just drop me an email and I’ll talk you out of it. Why? Because there’s just nothing that can be done. No use crying over spilt milk. And a million other cliches.

With the exception of drafting, you must be like an NBA shooter and always forget your last shot. Don’t even be tempted to check on the other guy over on that other team you just traded him too. Concentrate on the horses that are in your stable. Are your thoroughbreds performing? Then that’s that. Doesn’t matter if it’s Luol Deng for Latrell Spreewell or Mike Bibby for Gilbert Arenas.

Another reason not to keep tabs on players you trade is because asking for a tradeback is tacky. Even proposing a trade for a player you just traded away borders on questionable. Just forget about it already, okay?

Thanks.

I found the article referenced below, and it inspired me finally get around to writing about something I’ve been meaning to do for a while…

FREE AGENCY

Free agency is something you definitely need to take into account when drafting players. It’s not the end-all-be-all by any means, since a lot of times someone will be playing in a contract year and still play like they’ve already got an Amnesty Clause size contract. But, it’s often the case that when a player is dialing for dollars, they’ll work harder than they otherwise might.

So, the following is my list of candidates for the Most Greedy Player awards of 2005-06. Remember, this is not a guarantee that they’ll play well, nor that they won’t get injured… but it’s something that fantasy hedz like to pretend has an impact. So, if you want to be cool in fantasy hoopz circles, you should at least familiarize yourself with the list.*

Ben Wallace, Unrestricted - Big Ben will be 32 next summer, but he’s shown absolutely no signs of slowing down anytime soon. I’m a little surprised that Joe Dumars hasn’t worked out a contract extension with Wallace yet, but he’s reportedly more concerned with locking up Tayshaun Prince long-term. If the Pistons let Big Ben hit the market, it could be a sign that they’re willing to let him walk. Why would they do that? They have some kid on their bench who they have placed a lot of stock into— Darko Milicic. This is yet another reason why this season is so crucial for Darko and the Pistons. So why in the hell did they go out and sign Dale Davis, possibly pushing Darko back on the depth chart once again?!

Peja Stojakovic, Player Option - For all his faults (defense, injury-prone, certainly not a clutch player), he’s still arguably the league’s top shooter and one of its best scorers. Given that Peja can certainly earn more money by opting out (he’s due to earn about $8.1 million in 2006-07) and that he doesn’t appear to be in love with Sacramento (remember when he asked to be traded?), look for Stojakovic to hit the market next year demanding big bucks somewhere in the Larry Hughes/Michael Redd range. A team like Utah would love to have him and may be willing to fork over the dough.

Joel Przybilla, Unrestricted - Somebody must have lied to Przybilla and told him he was a free agent after last season, just check out his numbers in the last 2 months— 9.0 PPG, 55.0 FG%, 10.3 RPG, 3.6 BPG. There probably wasn’t a single player in the league who saw his stock rise as dramatically as Przybilla’s, but he’s going to have to replicate those numbers if he wants to reel in the big bucks (and we could be talking BIG BUCKS if he does)— young centers who can run the floor and defend are very tough to find.

Jason Terry, Unrestricted - Terry struggled in the early stages of last season, but really picked up his play once he was granted immunity as the Mavericks starting point guard. He was superb in the Playoffs (17.5 PPG, 49.1 3PT%, 4.2 RPG— up from 12.4 PPG, 42.0 3PT%, 2.4 RPG in the regular season), leading many to believe that last year’s lottery pick Devin Harris is now expendable. With next summer’s crop of free agent point guards being so thin, Terry could receive numerous tempting offers. It’s important that Dallas finds out whether Harris is able to inherit the reigns next year if Terry’s asking price is more than they’re willing to shell out.

Al Harrington, Unrestricted - Harrington’s stock took a mild hit this season in Atlanta after he failed to assume a starring role for a team that started Jason Collier and Obinna Ekezie at center for the better part of the year. He’s still going to incur a lot of interest next year simply because of his raw talent and experience in Indiana, which is actually why he’s a likely candidate to be moved to a contender before the trade deadline.

Lorenzen Wright, Unrestricted - Lo’s dealt with his share of injuries over the years, but he’ll only be 30 when he hits free agency next summer. Considering there’s been a slew of interest in Wright via the trade market recently, you can expect the same when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

Bonzi Wells, Unrestricted - Bonzi’s one of the best post-up guards in the league and a lot of teams would love to add that to their repertoire. Unfortunately some of those teams won’t give him the time of day because of his attitude. It’s truly a make-or-break year for Bonzi in Sacto.

Sam Cassell, Unrestricted - Cassell has proven in each of the last two years that he’s incapable of staying healthy for the duration of the year. Considering he’ll be 36 next summer and have even more mileage tacked onto his odometer, nobody will show him serious money.

Michael Olowokandi, Unrestricted - If Olowokandi put as much heart into his game as he does in the love letters he writes to female fans from the bench, then he might have been able to live up to half of the potential he boasted when the Clips selected him #1 overall. But oh wait, he’s over 7 feet so he’ll get paid.

Here’s the whole Hoops Vibe article on Free Agency for 2006.

* Please bear in mind that this level of knowledge may make it impossible to have a normal social interaction with another human being should the topic of basketball be broached. Since starting this weblog, the amount of information I’ve absorbed on the subject has many times nearly precluded me from actually being able to coherently communicate an opinion of a team/player.

About.com Fantasy Basketball: Surprisingly Similar Fantasy Basketball Players

Speaking of surprising… I’m surprised by About.com’s Fantasy Basketball coverage! Keep up the good work Brendan!

In the article linked above, B-Gov looks at players who - according to the About.com rating system - are surprisingly similar in the value the provide for your team. The first example is Shaq vs. Nazr Mohammed. Now, given the fact that no one really wants Nazr on their fantasy team in the first place, the fact that he shoots 73% from the line vs. Shaq’s 46% (with the first or second most attempts in the league) means that their contributions (positive and negative) to your team are nearly equal. Sure, the Diesel is going to score and rebound more, but considering you are pretty much conceding the FT% category when you draft him, it might make more sense to get someone who is going to hurt you less in that category, but also help you less in another… Just something to consider because soon you’ll be looking at a draft board and making this very decision. I can almost guarantee it.

Interesting that Reggie Miller and Michael Redd have the same birthday (obviously not in the same year). It’s also my wife’s half birthday!

(Doesn’t saying I have a wife make me sound old?)

Make all the jokes you want about the JailBlazers (but keep in mind that they’re getting pretty old) … but don’t let Travis Outlaw’s name fool you. And don’t mistake him for the other Outlaw of the League (Bo). Travis should be a prime GiveMeTheRockian Candidate this year. His season stats are enough to keep him under the radar… but look at what he did in March and April:

Okay… so maybe it doesn’t look that impressive… but trust me. Basketball Monster projects him to get 11.5 points, 3.5 rebounds (I’d be more generous than that), 1.5 assists, 1 steal and 1 block per game with 50% from the field, and 75% from the line. That puts him at about #138. If you can get him at 138, that seems like a steal to me. He should at least be able to perform to match that pick, and, as they say in the biz, he has huge UpSide. With the losses the Blazers have had this offseason (self-inflicted and otherwise), I can easily see Outlaw as the backup PF and SF behind Zach Randolph and Darius Miles.

It’s still a question mark, so I won’t go into the fantasy ramifications just yet, but seriously… if they get him… do they think they won’t turn into the Mavericks - ie: Too many stars, no role players? Shaq, Wade, Walker, Williams, and Finley? Sure, it’s a pretty firkin’ awesome starting lineup… especially with Haslem, Mourning, Posey, and (if they keep him) Damon Jones coming off the bench. That lineup itself is good enough to be the starting 4 for the Bobcats or the Hawks.

The only problem is that SWWWF all need the ball in their hands to do anything. I can’t see Walker or Finley becoming much better spot-up shooters than they already are. If the Heat do get Finley, it will probably call into question the fantasy relevance of any of the players with the possible exception of Wade (sorry, Shaq’s FT% is too low to say he’ll be worth picking with those others guys out there with him… the history of injuries doesn’t help, either). Posey might be a good fantasy pick since he’ll be playing against other teams second stringers, and he is definitely first string material.

I just can’t see 5 guys who need the ball being effective together. But at the same time, I hope it does happen just to watch what unfolds. Would they collapse under the weight of being such a heavy favorite? Or would they win 70+ games en route to being one of the greatest teams of all time?

Another question (trying to encourage some comments here): With the exception of the 4 HOF Laker team (Payton, Malone, Shaq, Kobe), has there been a lineup with more potential (or actual) HOFers? Shaq and Wade will be there (assuming Wade keeps playing like he did last year). Walker could arguably belong there. Williams and Finley are probably like 2nd Team Hall of Fame… Am I just making this up because these guys are big names for the era in which they played?

Speaking of HOF: I picked up “toy” sculptures of Julius Erving and Larry Bird while shopping for an 8-year-old this weekend. I was in the toy section for over an hour. And I’m still thinking about that Build Your Own Lightsaber kit.