Give Me The Rock
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A couple of months ago, I took a shot at measuring the effect that free throw percentages have on fantasy teams. Both my mother and grandmother said it was the greatest thing they ever read short of Die Verwandlung. At the time, I ran the results for the 2006 season up through the current date (January), but now with the regular season over, we can look back at the results for the entire year.
The basic gist of the process is to weight the contribution of a player’s free throw percentage based upon the number of free throws he attempts per game compared to the league average. This puts every player on a level playing field so to speak, by adjusting each player’s percentage to what it would have to be if they attempted a league average number of free-throws (resulting in an effective free throw percentage, or EFT%). The more free throws a player attempts either above or below average, the more their EFT% will deviate from their actual FT%.
This mysterious “league†I keep referring to is the top 150 fantasy players for 2006, which jives with many of the common fantasy leagues out there (no crying if you play in something crazy like a 4 team league; take your all star roster and go home). And if you feel like reading more about EFT%, you can look at this previous article (complete with everyone’s favorite… formulas!)
And the results? Here are the top rated players in terms of EFT% for 2006.
There are basically two types of players on this list, those who shoot fewer free throws at a high percentage (Allen, Peja, Nash) and those who shoot a lot at a slightly lower percentage (Kobe, Redd, Iverson). And then there is Dirk Nowitzki. In January, it was Billups who was running with an EFT% above 100, at the end of the season it’s Dirk with a percentage of 102. Will this, coupled with his playoff performance to date and that classic stoic German demeanor… ahem, I meant stoic demeanor, result in “Dirk: Fantasy Monster†next season? Color me interested.
As far as a fantasy strategy, it is the guys with the lower percentages who shoot a lot who you should be aiming for. Many of your lesser informed opponents look at a player like Nash and see that shiny free throw percentage, with little regard to how many he actually takes. Also, by loading up your team with guys who shoot a lot of free throws and shoot them well, you will also diffuse the effect of guys with bad EFT%, much like those guys on the list below.
A list full of big men and… Gerald Wallace? Well, there you go. Guys like Duncan, Howard, and the Wallaces are all going to end up on someone’s team, so again, having a few players with a high EFT% will help diffuse one or two of the guys on the list above. Shaq is a well known (and deserved) category killer. This list pretty much shows why. Ben Wallace, while shooting a worse percentage than Shaq, gets a pardon by only averaging 3.6 free throws a game.
By the way, if anyone has won a roto league with Shaq primarily involved, I would love to hear how it went down.
A Note About Field Goal Percentage:
Everything written about EFT% also applies to EFG%. However, the range of field goal percentages and the number shots attempted from the field (average of 11.5, std dev of 4.2) varies less than the number of free throws attempted (average of 4.2, std dev of 2.3), so EFG% stays fairly close to the standard FG% and is much less interesting to talk about. For example, Tracy McGrady, who took over 21 shots a game and made 40.6% of them, has an EFG% of 36.6%. For the most part, EFG% only varies about a percentage point or two from FG%.
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