Give Me The Rock

Ladies and gentlemen, YOUR 2006 NBA Champion Miami Heat!

Welcome to the first edition of the NBA off-season fantasy review/preview, and I can think of no better team to start off with than your 2006 NBA Champion Miami Heat. First, they are the victors, and winners always get first dibs and the hottest chicks at school, and second, they’re likely to have comparatively little free-agent player movement this summer. It just so happens that they have few free agents to worry about (as well as smartly locking up Wade for an additional 5 years) and the free agents they do have are either role players or just plain suck. So, how do the champs stack up fantasy-wise?

2005/2006 Miami Heat Fantasy Rankings (2005/2006 per game rank in parenthesis)

(7) Dwyane Wade
(82) Jason Williams
(90) Shaquille O’Neal
(115) Antoine Walker
(119) Udonis Haslem
(122) Alonzo Mourning
(125) James Posey
(153) Gary Payton
(212) Derek Anderson
(329) Michael Doleac
(333) Jason Kapono
(335) Wayne Simien
(349) Shandon Anderson
(359) Dorell Wright
(444) Earl Barron

In an actual case of fantasy mimicking reality, Miami’s fantasy prospects were lead solely by Dwyane Wade. Not having really watched him much before this year’s playoffs, I never really jumped on the Wade “fantasy monster” bandwagon and kept waiting for him to tumble down the rankings. I should have learned from 2004, because he didn’t, and slotted in at #7 behind only the top of the top guys like Marion, Kobe, and Garnett. I guess a guy who’s “only” 6-4 can be one of the best fantasy players in the league after all. Much like most people who eat at Taco Bell, Wade is good to go.

Other than Wade, no one else much appeals to me. Jason Williams had another Jason Williams type season (consistently boring and slightly hurt), although the decrease is assists (down to 4.9) can only be bad news going forward. Shaq is the free-throw shooting equivalent of an Uwe Boll movie, so horribly bad it seems to be intentional, and he’s someone who will never step within 500 feet of one of my teams. I had high hopes for Haslem going into last year, but he never really turned it up (I wish those blocks would go up a little… just a little). No one else on the Heat cracked 30 minutes a game, and unless you’re Manu Ginobili, that isn’t going to put you on many fantasy radars. Zo did have a flamingly great start to the season while Shaq was out, so maybe you were lucky enough to enjoy that short ride.

With a nod to that MBA spirit, here’s the PMad analyst outlook for the 2006/2007 fantasy season:

BUY
Dwyane Wade: So, I’m 2 years late to the party. There’s still room, right? It appears that only severe spinal trauma will be able to stop him.

HOLD
Shaq: Well, if you do happen to be a Shaq fan, you know what you’re going to get. Go ahead, punt that percentage category. He’s slowing down, but I don’t see a significant drop off just yet.

Udonis Haslem: His stats decreased last season from 2004, but he’s 26, and he’s as good a bet as anyone to get minutes on this team. Be aware that Haslem absolutely has no track record to indicate he’s going to be a breakout player, however, so he gets a hold. His most similar players by age (thanks Basketball Reference) include A.C. Green, Loy Vaught, Popeye Jones, and Jumaine Jones. That appears to be a ringing endorsement for mediocrity. Pencil him in for 11 and 9 a game.

James Posey: If you’re really desperate for threes that is. He resigned with the Heat and will likely get his 25-27 minutes a game and hit some threes. But, I think we can all do better than that.

SELL
Jason Williams: His assists and steals are down despite more minutes, his games played are down, he’s having surgery this summer on his knee (although he’ll be back in time for training camp), and the Heat are already looking into bringing in another point-guard. That’s less a warning light and more a full-on flashing siren.

Antoine Walker: He had a pretty, pretty, pretty good playoffs, I’ll give him that, which might lead to some optimistic feelings, hopes, or wishes for next year, but the Heat have indicated that they are looking to give the younger guys a shot. That in itself isn’t a damning verdict, but Walker’s fantasy value is especially tied up in his hogging of minutes and collecting counting stats. He only averaged 27 minutes a game last year and I don’t see how that will increase.

Gary Payton: The Glove wants back on the Heat. Don’t let him back on your fantasy team. And, if so, what the hell was he doing on your team in the first place?

Alonzo Mourning: Might not be back, was a backup anyway, only had a good three weeks last season… and so on.

WATCH
Jason Kapono! Just kidding. The Heat are looking for a point-guard, so keep an eye out for who they bring in. The minutes will be there. Eddie House anyone?

Other than that, this Heat team is going to look an awful lot like the one who won a championship last year, which is not surprising, cause they won. The problem is that they managed to win by jumping on the back of one man and then riding him and the refs all the way to the hoop. That’s a difficult recipe to repeat. But fantasy-wise, the Heat are still all Wade.

WHERE I’D DRAFT ‘EM (in a 10 team league)
Wade – Bottom 1st Round
Shaq – DND (Me) (9th if you swing that way)
Haslem – 10th
Williams – 11th or DND based upon Miami’s free-agent pick-ups
Walker – 12th (someone will inevitability draft him earlier)
Posey – DND
Payton – 157th