Fantasy Preview: Milwaukee Bucks

Categorized as: Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Draft Guide 2006, Milwaukee Bucks
Posted on: August 7th, 2006

Since I don’t have anything clever to write about anything having to do with Milwaukee, except maybe that delicious beverage Old Milwaukee, I thought it apropos to follow on the coat tails of the big trade sending STEVE BLAKE! to the Bucks with the fantasy review for the Milwaukee Bucks. This serves a dual purpose: to (1) hit up the review when people’s interest in the Bucks has peaked (and I think we can all agree that it peaked about a week ago) and (2) allow me to totally plagiarize other people’s work, including Nels’ throughout review of the trade’s fantasy implications. I mean, with that review, Nels is practically begging me to mail this in.

I will admit that the more interesting fantasy implications of this trade are on the Blazers’ side, but since I’m strictly eastside, you’ll have to wait for Nels to touch on the Blazers. It would also be amiss if I didn’t mention Henry Abbott’s throughout analysis of “What’s Wrong with Jamaal Magloire”, in which he even goes through the trouble of analyzing video. It creates a persuasive message when someone takes the time to combine visual and statistical information into a single comprehensive analysis. I wish I had the time to be so throughout with my analyses instead of just making up shit off the top of my head.

2005/2006 RANKINGS
(20) Michael Redd
(77) Bobby Simmons
(105) Maurice Williams
(108) Andrew Bogut
(156) Charlie Bell
(194) Joe Smith
(256) Toni Kukoc
(283) Dan Gadzuric
(317) Jiri Welsch
(407) Jermaine Jackson
(430) Ervin Johnson
(445) Reece Gaines

OUT
(80) TJ Ford
(198) Jamaal Magloire

IN
(99) Charlie Villanueva
(144) Steve Blake
(293) Brian Skinner
(399) Ha Seung-Jin

The Bucks are treating their roster like a restless fantasy owner, mixing thing up to see if the new pieces fit any better. Villanueva, Steve Blake, Brian Skinner, and Ha Seung-Jin are in and TJ Ford and Magloire are shipped out (forgive me if I’ve left anyone out). By the way, I never understood why a team (Toronto in this case) would give up on a player (Villanueva) after a successful first year. He was good enough to draft 7th just last year, but not good enough to build around? I know they say they saw an opportunity and went with it, but it strikes me as weird.

Here’s the Bucks fantasy outlook with notes on what some of the other stellar fantasy bloggers have to say.

BUY

Andrew Bogut – BV over at Fantasy Basketblog has Bogut as a big winner from the Magloire trade. I, on the other hand, agree with Nels that Bogut’s value won’t be increased all too much from the trade. Bogut was going to get his minutes with or without Magloire on the team and, I don’t see 5 more minutes making him a top center in the league (although to be fair, BV didn’t think so either). For some reason, I want to contrast Bogut to Emeka Okafor, who jumped into the NBA and put up a line of 15/11 and 1.7 blks his rookie season compared to Bogut’s 9.4/7 and 0.8 blks. Granted, Okafor was a year older than Bogut as a rookie, but both these guys should have been able to jump right in and play, and Bogut didn’t quite jump as well. Not being Emeka Okafor isn’t damning, especially with the ability to stay healthy, and I still have Bogut as a buy. I just don’t see Bogut as a star in this league. Prorating his stats last year over 35 minutes – 11.5/9/ with 1 blk – is what I think he’ll do next year.

Michael Redd – I’m shocked that Michael Redd was the 20th ranked player last year – because that would make him the least talked about 2nd rounder in the history of fantasy sports. That’s the price of playing in Milwaukee I guess. I like the progression of his season stats throughout his career, in which he goes from a three point specialist in 2002 to a legitimate franchise player in 2006. Is he going to get even better? Probably not, but even if he’s peaked at age 27, Redd could be a steal if he slips enough under the radar in your draft.

In the course of research, I also discovered that after signing a 90 million contract last year, he bought a church where is father serves as pastor.

Charlie Villanueva – I would argue that Magloire’s departure benefits Villanueva the most on the Bucks from a fantasy perspective. He’ll now be asked to log some big minutes instead of splitting time with Magloire or in some kind of big man rotation. From the rankings, you can see that he slightly outplayed Bogut last year and – if forced to choose – I’d pick him to outplay Bogut again this year. Plus he sounds like an all around good guy and he is a bald man of the week recipient.

HOLD

Bobby Simmons – I absolutely loved the Bobby Simmons who played an all-out 37 minutes a night for the Clippers with a decent all around game and good percentages. The Bobby Simmons who plays an all-out 33 minutes for the Bucks… he’s not quite as exciting. He’s still eighth round good, but in the process of losing 10% of his minutes, he’s gone from underrated to properlyrated.

SELL

Ha Seung Jin/Brian Skinner/Joe Smith/Dan Gadzuric – Nels indicated that Dan Gadzuric might have non-insignificant value next season, but to me, Gadzuric is a Volkswagen Jetta – I’ve tried him out a few times and never been close to satisfied with the performance. [Nels has now slightly backed off his Gadzuric stance after being called out by a real-life Bucks fan]. I was going to recommend Joe Smith before I realized he sucks too. Lets just say that if your team is relying on any of these four guys next year, you won’t be taking home a championship.

Mo Williams/Charlie Bell/Steve Blake/Lynn Greer: Anywhere from one to all of the potential point guards/backup shooting guards are going to lose out, unless someone is moved before the start of the season. Which leads me to…

WATCH

The four headed point-guard monster of Mo Williams/Charlie Bell/Steve Blake/Lynn Greer and how that will play out. Sam Kirchner of 5 Point Bucks has a post that talks not only about what he’ll like to see happen, but also what he thinks will happen based on Terry Stotts’ subbing patterns (starting: Mo Williams; backup: Steve Blake) and even tries to get in Larry Harris’ head to discuss a trade that would make a lot of sense – a Mo Williams and Joe Smith package. Based upon the Bucks’ off-season so far, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucks aren’t done trading quite yet.

Where I’d pick em (in a 10 team league)
Michael Redd – 3rd
Andrew Bogut – 7th (C eligibility helps his cause)
Charlie Villanueva – 7th
Bobby Simmons – 8th
Maurice Williams – Depending on what happens as the season nears, he might be worth an 11th or 12th round pick. But platoons ruin fantasy value enough that I wouldn’t make the pick without seeing what develops.
Steve Blake – Not worth your time unless he wins the starting job outright, in which case, snag him towards the end of the draft.

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