October 31, 2006
So, NBA.com claims to have live scoring on their site. But PJ Brown has been stuck at 13 fantasy points for more than a half hour now… Oh wait. It’s because he’s on the bench since the Bulls are up by 23 points!
Oh, and if you notice a distinct Bulls bent to this blog (I’ll be doing my part at the least), it’s because I’m marginally salty about not being invited to do a preview on NBAPreview.wordpress.com. I don’t care if everyone in all of my leagues knows I’m a townie, because I don’t let it cloud my judgement. To be honest, I have a Bull on each of my 3 teams, but it’s really more of a coincidence than any pretermination on my part: in my KFBA league, Ben Gordon was a good keeper pick for me; in the HoopsAddict league, I got Bad Bad PJ Brown on my team only because I couldn’t find anyone else to pick at 178 and he was autodrafted for me; my only real townie pick was in the DroppingDimes league, where I took Tyrus Thomas with my very last pick.
So, you can trust me to provide unbiased fantasy basketball coverage all season, but you can also trust me to Big Up the Bulls when I get the chance. Chi-town Basketball!
Hours before the start of the 2006 NBA season, I just wanted to wish all those fantasy teams out there good luck. Well, everyone except the other guys in my leagues. I’m sure they’ll understand.
And remember, if you want to be a winner like me, just follow these few easy steps to fantasy greatness.*
1. Know your league: Unlike some other fantasy sports, the variety of fantasy basketball leagues and scoring categories is astounding. It’s vitally important to know your league’s setup. Is it head to head, rotisserie, or points-based? Daily changes or weekly? What are the scoring categories? Is there a limit on the number of games per position? And what are the positions in the league? One center, two, three? The value of any given player is dependent on all these factors.
2. Draft well and the rest is easy: Whoops, a little late for that. Onto…
2.5. Trade well and the rest is easy: Some people love it, others not so much. But trading is an important part of the game and a way to get up on the competition, just make sure you know how to do it correctly. Here is a great article on trading. My two cents - beware of the guy who only offers 2-for-1 deals and dammit, don’t trade for a guy because he was on fire during week 1.
3. Wavers: Unless you’re unbelievably lucky or don’t give a crap about your suck-ass team, chances are you’re going to have to work wavers throughout the season. I don’t advise being the guy who hangs out in the league immediately after the games wrap up and adds and drops guys 5 times a day. Instead, watch for trends and injuries and pick roles players that fit with your team. Or temporarily add a guy who has 5 games during the upcoming week (although make sure he can play a little - Eddie Griffin - I’m looking in your direction). And don’t be afraid to drop guys who aren’t performing - after you’ve given them a chance to suck of course.
4. Injuries always last twice as long as is first reported: I wouldn’t be in a rush to get back on the court either if I was sitting on a guaranteed 50+ million dollars.
5. Don’t be the guy who abandons his team by January: Isiah Thomas is taking responsibility for his mess, be a man and take responsibility for yours.
6. STRIKE FIRST. STRIKE HARD. NO MERCY.
* Results not typical and definitely not guaranteed.
My third and final fantasy basketball league conducted an auction the other night. Not many leagues run an auction, probably because you have to get everyone in the same room or on a conference call to make it work, but when they’re done right, it’s much more involved and intense than a draft.
The auction went down like this. It is a roto league that consists of 10 teams with 10 starters and 5 bench players each. Teams had $75 bucks to bid on as many or as few players as they wanted – however - if a team ran out of money they have to pick up their remaining players off wavers. So, there is certainly an incentive to not run out of money. Each keeper was $5. Every team took a turn, selected a player, and started the bidding. Bidding progressed until the high bid won. You can see there is some strategy in selecting players, starting bids, and knowing when to bid and when not to.
My basic strategy going into the auction was to go hard after a few of the top guys (especially Marion, Arenas, and Brand) and then fill the rest of my team with role players and sleepers. The rational was that the top guys: 1) went at a discount the past couple of years, and 2) were as sure things as you could get. I figured I could target enough sleepers to fill out the remaining 8 to 10 spots without too much trouble.
The plan did not go as I imagined - here’s what I ended up with:
Jason Richardson (keeper) - $5
Tracy McGrady - $9.25
Jermaine O’Neal - $9.50
Peja Stojakovic - $6.75
Ron Artest - $4.25
Josh Smith - $5.00
Stephon Marbury - $6.00
Ricky Davis - $4.00
Al Harrington - $4.75
Nenad Krstic - $3.25
Darko Milicic - $2.25
Mike Miller - $2.00
Andres Nocioni - $2.50
Luol Deng - $3.00
Josh Childress – $0.25
Total Spent - $67.75 ($7.25 remaining)
For some perspective, the bidding started with Kobe at $12.50, followed by Wade at $12.00, and Yao Ming at $12.25. A little later in the auction, Lebron was won for $15.75, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen for $13 each, Chris Paul for $12, Kevin Garnett for $16.25, and Brand went for $15.50. Arenas’ name didn’t get called until the back end of the auction, and by then a few guys with money to burn (one of whom may have been me) drove his price all the way to $17. Arenas was only the second most costly player though, as Marion went mid-auction for a whopping $17.25.
Despite any planning and good intentions that I might have had, no one wants to be the guy who goes out and blows half their budget right out of the gate. Kobe ended up being a steal at $12.50 and even my own calculations put his value around $14-15, but since he was the first guy out there, I threw in the towel after my bid of $12.25. Instead, I horded my money waiting for Marion and Arenas. Unfortunately, so did a couple of other teams, and a bidding war ensued for those guys. After I lost out on both Arenas and Marion, I was left with a bunch of money and bunch of mid-rounders on my team. Lesson #1: Don’t wait until the end of an auction to spend your money.
Overall, I see three glaring problems with my team:
1. In my fascination in looking for good value, I broke the cardinal rule of auctions: I left money on the table. A lot really, $7.25. That’s just horrible planning on my part. If I had used my money a little better, I could have gotten Kobe or Wade in exchange for someone like Al Harrington.
2. Also notice that I don’t have a single first rounder on my team. I’m not happy about that, especially since I could have had Kobe or Wade with a little better planning (see point 1).
3. The stars and planets need to align in harmony for this team to do well. If McGrady and O’Neal are healthy, if Peja and Marbury bounce back, if Artest doesn’t kill someone, if all the kids step it up, this team might be on to something. It’s never good to have that many things that need to go right for your team to do well.
What am I happy about? Well, I was able to achieve my goal of drafting Darko in each of the three leagues I’m in. I’m feeling the positive vibrations all the way from Orlando. And it’s not actually a bad team; I took enough chances that luck would dictate someone has to step it up, stay healthy, bounce back, whatever. Plus, I have a deep enough team that if someone should be a disappointment (almost guaranteed) I can swap in a decent bench guy like Miller or Deng on not miss out on too much. I just hope I’ll have enough firepower with my starting 10 to make some noise.
October 30, 2006
Welcome to the final installment of the Eastern Conference Fantasy Team Previews. Whew… that ended up being a little more work than I expected. But, I saved one of the more interesting teams for the finale – those crazy Chicago Bulls! Fantasy wise, the Bulls have a lot of talent but no real superstar, at least not yet. Hinrich, Nocioni, Deng, and Gordon all seem to have the talent to possibly breakout this year and become “the man” on this team (under the rule that every human endeavor with more than one person needs an alpha male). Also, this preview will serve as my thumbs up or down to Nels’ decision to keep Ben Gordon on his KFBA team as a fifth round pick. More on that to come.
2005/2006 Fantasy Rankings
(55) Kirk Hinrich
(92) Ben Gordon
(93) Andres Nocioni
(94) Luol Deng
(106) Chris Duhon
(239) Mike Sweetney
(316) Malik Allen
(419) Luke Schenscher
IN
(59) Ben Wallace
(121) P.J. Brown
(186) Adrian Griffin
(NA) Tyrus Thomas
OUT
(143) Tyson Chandler
(179) Darius Songaila
BUY
Kirk Hinrich - On the downside: his stats have pretty much flatlined since his rookie year. On the upside: he was still good for number 55 on the player rater last year and should be a solid #1 PG available in the mid rounds. And there’s always the chance he could take a big step forward and turn into something like a Steve Nash lite.
Luol Deng - Starter Alert! Deng seems to be getting a lot of love for a breakout year of sorts, or at least, nice sleeper material. Unlike some of the other Bulls, he did show (modest) improvement in most of his stats last year. Now he’ll be starting, he’s definitely worth taking a chance on this year.
Andres Nocioni - When you lose your starting job to PJ Brown, that’s not the best sign. Still, the potential is there - he finished last season ranked at 93 in only 27 minutes a game. So, even if he does come off the bench, he’ll get enough minutes to be a solid contributor.
HOLD
Ben Gordon - I’ve been a fan of Gordan since his days at UConn, however, like Hinrich, he’s another guy who didn’t improve much last year. Besides the 3’s (which have been very nice) and possibly points (this year) - his stats (42% on field goals, 2.7 rebs, 3 asts, 0.9 steals, and 0.1 blocks in 05/06) don’t exactly scream “draft me!”. He could be a good category specialist if you’re in need of 3’s and points – which seems a little high for a fifth rounder (sorry Nels) – I’d slot him more like a 8th – 10th rounder.
Ben Wallace – It should be no surprise what you’ll get from Wallace this year. His stats are starting on that downward slope, but he should still be good for over 10 rebounds and 2 blocks a game.
Chris Duhon – Won’t be starting, but someone’s got to backup Hinrich and Gordon.
SELL
P.J. Brown - I don’t care if he’s starting. He could average 48 minutes a game for the Bulls and I still wouldn’t want him anywhere near my fantasy team. Brown is easily the starting power forward for the Jeff Foster All Stars.
Mike Sweetney – Well, at least he made the 15 man roster.
WATCH
Just about everyone is predicting good things from the Bulls this season. Playoffs are all but guaranteed, and a trip deep into the playoffs is likely. I’m curious to see which one (or more) of the young guys is going to step up their game. This should be a fun year for Bulls fans.
Where We Drafted Em (Our 10 Team Mock Draft)*
Kirk Hinrich - 4th
Ben Wallace - 4th
Ben Gordon - 7th
Andres Nocioni - 8th
Luol Deng - 9th
* Although, it’s difficult for me to take credit for any of the above mentioned picks as Nels didn’t give me the chance to actually draft any Bulls during the mock draft.
October 29, 2006
October 28, 2006
With the start of the season is coming, I have two teams to go in order to finish the Eastern Conference Team Previews. And even though something like 98% of all fantasy leagues have already drafted, I’m going to get there before Tuesday. Unfortunately, the USB flash drive where I keep all my work disappeared from the face of the Earth last week, so I’m going to have to run condensed versions of the Knicks and Bulls previews. My apologies to any fans of those teams, but know that I did twice the work to get half the content.
If you only have time to remember one important fact about the Knicks, make it this one: while their disappointing performance in real life is due to the fascinating work of Isiah Thomas, their disappointing fantasy performance was more Larry Brown than Thomas. His inconsistent and seemingly random rotations coupled with injuries caused just about every Knick to finish the season below expectations. In fact, they had the worst “best†player (Marbury) in the league last year. With Thomas at the helm, expect more consistency and a better showing from the Knicks’ core.
2005/2006 RANKINGS
(84) Stephon Marbury
(88) Jamal Crawford
(91) Steve Francis
(126) Channing Frye
(168) Eddy Curry
(174) Jalen Rose
(211) Qyntel Woods
(213) Nate Robinson
(230) Quentin Richardson
(252) Jackie Butler
(253) David Lee
(292) Malik Rose
(365) Jerome James
IN
(193) Jared Jeffries
(332) Kelvin Cato
(NA) Renaldo Balkman
OUT
No one important
BUY
Stephon Marbury – Last year, he had his worst season since 1996. Healthy now, he should bounce back to his old self and be a steal in the 5th round of a draft.
Steve Francis – It appears that he’ll be starting along with Marbury – which is a good sign for his value. I have him pegged as a solid sleeper candidate if you need a PG towards the end of a draft.
Channing Frye – Probably hurt the most by Larry Brown’s inconsistent rotations – he was solid when he played – and more consistent playing time should lead to a nice improvement over last.
HOLD
Jamal Crawford – Despite the hot finish to last season, he’ll be coming off the bench again this year. I do think he’ll get enough minutes to be worthy of a 10th or so round pick and a spot on your team.
SELL
Jared Jeffries – Had the starting job, but a wrist injury will put him on the shelf until December. This will likely give Quentin Richardson an extending opportunity to take Jeffries spot outright (see below).
Eddy Curry – Looks like a change of scenery wasn’t the answer.
Jalen Rose – He could be of some value on the right team, but the Knicks aren’t the right team. His 19 points a game in 04/05 already seems like forever ago.
WATCH
Quentin Richardson – Knickerblogger writes that Jeffries injury gives him an opportunity to step up and so far in the preseason he’s done just that.
Where We Drafted Em (Our 10 Team Mock Draft)
Stephon Marbury – 5th
Steve Francis – 10th
Channing Frye – 10th
Jamal Crawford – 11th
Eddy Curry – 13th
Jared Jeffries – DND (injury)
October 26, 2006
Fantasy Bull Sports with the scoop (not Jackson). Confirmation by way of Slam Magazine.
Atlanta Hawk sophomore Marvin Williams has broken a metacarpal bone and is now out for the first two months of the year.
Two months is a long time to wait for a sleeper. That’s like a coma-style sleeper or something.
I’m pretty sure that everyone who drafted him is really mad now. I don’t mean that anyone needs to be kicking themselves, or wish that they’d picked someone else. M-Will looked like a pretty good candidate for a sleeper. There’s not a lot you can do when someone breaks their hand on October 26th and the season starts Oct 31st.
Pau Gasol is someone you can draft and wait two months (yes, even in Roto leagues). Marvin Williams’ 12 and 6 is not something for which you really need to wait. As Fantasy Bull Sports says, leave him on the wire. In Yahoo (and maybe some other sites) you can add him to your Watch List. Then when he starts posting numbers, you can see if it’s worth dropping someone else on your team.
The good news is for people who picked Josh Smith in the 2nd round; now he actually might get enough playing time be a 2nd round talent. If you managed to get him in the 3rd or even 4th round, he could be a steal. Y’know, if he just ups his steals just a bit.
One final note: If you really need a Williams in your lineup (I mean, who doesn’t?), Shelden Williams will be filling in for Marvin as the Hawks “Williams Sleeper Pick.”
And if anything, Hawks fans still have this to look forward to:
