Give Me The Rock

To end last year, the Wizards finished 42 – 40 and made it into the playoffs as the 5th seed in the East. It was a good run, but they just couldn’t compete against LeBron James and the Cavs in the playoffs. Nonetheless, it was a successful year for Washington, as they were third in the league in points per game with 101.7 (behind Phoenix and Seattle). With the core roster and coaching staff intact, expect more of the same pace this year, which is good news for the Wizards fantasy prospects.

Yahoo.com had a whopping 21 guys listed on the Wizards roster. NBA.com has the Wizards with a more manageable 17 players on their roster, but forgive me if I don’t list each and every one of them. Also, you can clearly see below that the Wizards are in a similar predicament as the Nets, three strong and then not so much.

2005/2006 RANKINGS

(5) Gilbert Arenas
(37) Caron Butler
(41) Antawn Jamison
(163) Antonio Daniels
(180) Jarvis Hayes
(185) Brendan Haywood
(262) Etan Thomas
(327) Michael Ruffin
(334) Billy Thomas
(348) Donell Taylor
(383) Calvin Booth
(389) Andray Blatche

OUT
(193) Jared Jeffries

IN
(179) Darius Songaila
(195) Deshawn Stevenson
(NA) Oleksiy Pecherov

BUY

Gilbert Arenas – It seems like Arenas got more attention on the Internet this summer than Jen Sterger, the cowgirl herself (I’d post a picture, but I don’t want to distract you from this insightful analysis). Here’s Arenas on the upcoming season, about team USA, on his tattoo, on a nickname, posing for magazine covers, and of course, conducting an interview on The Basketball Jones. Oh, yeah, there were also some police charges that were dropped. And for the fantasy inclined, Arenas as Dropping Dimes, pick 7.

All this attention is deserved, because the guy has quickly become one the best players (and fantasy players) in the league. On the plus side, he’s the same age as Dwyane Wade (24). And while his most similar comp (via Basketball Reference) is Steve Francis, also included in his top comps are Wade and Kobe. So, he’s in good company there.

The only negative aspect to his game is that he led the league in turnovers last year with 3.7 and will likely be up at the top of the list again this year. If you play in a league that counts turnovers, push Arenas down a few spots. Regardless, he’s first round talent in almost any draft.

Caron Butler – His top comp from basketball reference is Jaamal Wilkes, who had a good run with the Lakers from 1979 (age 25) to 1984 (age 30). Butler just finished his age 25 season - a coincidence? I wouldn’t se surprised with a similar run from Butler over the next few years: 18/6/2.5 with decent steals and FT%.

HOLD

Antawn Jamison – I’ll admit, I’m a sucker for multicategory guys like AK and Donyell Marshall… err… the one from 2003. Just seeing that stat line sill up on any given day brings a smile to my face, and Jamison, as a 3 category guy, doesn’t excite me too much. That being said, even I can see that Jamison’s points and rebounds have value: his 05/06 was a fantasy success, as he played 40 minutes a game with 20.5 points, 9 rebounds, and 1.8 threes per game. With Darius Songaila coming to the Wizards, I’d expect some decrease in minutes this year, but he should still be a solid contributor to your fantasy team.

SELL

Brendan Haywood – The guys at FBB are right, Haywood’s stats have been flat since he came into the league. Don’t let the blocks fool you (and at 1.7 a game - those aren’t even that great), Haywood is not worth a spot on your team. I don’t care how desperate you are, 7 points and 6 rebounds from a second (or even third) center? Pass on that.

Antonio Daniels – According to insidehoops, he’ll be the starting SG for the Wizards. Yahoo is a little less kind and puts DeShawn Stevenson ahead of him on the depth chart. Or you can check out the Washington Wizards Blog, which provides actual quotes from Eddie Jordan, where Jordan shows some man love for DeShawn Stevenson so far in training camp. For fantasy owners, the important part of the quote is that, “We are trying to stay with a certain five right now. That’s basically been Gil, DeShawn, Antawn, Caron, and either Brendan or Etan”. Ok, that’s six guys, but as you already know, both Haywood and Etan are not worth your attention. So, in conclusion, you can probably do better than Daniels’ 9.6/2.2/3.6 (in 28.5 minutes) with mediocre percentages.

DeShawn Stevenson – Wow. He played 32 minutes a game last year and was the 195 ranked fantasy player in the league. For comparison, Bernard Robinson was ranked at 196 while playing a mere 19.5 minutes a game. Although Eddie Jordan might give him the starting job, he might end up challenging Jeff Foster for the most useless starter of the year award.

Jarvis Hayes – Is he going to be healthy this year? No, no, he’s not. And even if he is healthy, he’s not worth owning on your team (Hayes was a 10/4/2 – in 2004, the best stats of his career). Here’s all you need to know:

…if healthy, could emerge as the team’s fourth scoring option after Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler.

4th scoring option? Is that even something to be proud about?

Etan Thomas – Not that you’d even be thinking about picking him up, I just remember the year (2003, I think) when I grabbed him off wavers after he put together a particular promising week and he immediately shit the bed on me. I mention this because at least once a year, he’ll put together a run that will make you think about picking him up off wavers (for example, check out March 1 to March 8, 2006). Just don’t do it man.

WATCH

Darius Songaila – He’s a nice signing to fill in behind Jamison, but he’ll likely have little fantasy value as a backup. There is some mention that he’ll play center on occasion when the lineup goes small, but I don’t advocate drafting someone where “if” things go right, he “might” have a little value. Instead, let him go undrafted and watch him closely when the season starts.

The Wizards should be a fun team to watch his year. Arenas is a franchise player and Butler and Jamison are a solid #2 and #3. Darius Songaila was a good pick up and will give the Wizards a little depth. They’re still missing a piece or two in order to compete deep into the playoffs. The center and shooting guard position are especially weak for a playoff level team. I see another trip to the playoffs this year, but another early exit.

Where I’d draft em (in a 10 team league)
Gilbert Arenas – 1st
Caron Butler – 5th
Antawn Jamison – 5th
Darius Songaila – Possible end of draft flyer if you’re in a big league with a bigger bench

Additional Reading: The DC natives over at Fantasy Basketblog have posted their review of the Wizards. And for an absolutely insane (in a good way) Wizards related blog, there’s The Wizznutzz.