I Like The Way You Score

Categorized as: Fantasy Basketball, NBA Basketball
Posted on: November 21st, 2006

It doesn’t matter how you play the game, it’s whether you win or lose. And even that doesn’t make all that much difference.
- Coach Finstock

The other day, right after picking up Tyronn Lue off wavers for one of my underperforming roto teams (the Franchise as a number one PG was a bad choice), I got to thinking about how much easier it seems to get points off wavers this year compared to the last couple of years. I didn’t specifically pick up Lue for the points (though he’s averaging 14.4 a game), but in most medium to deep leagues, it’s usually difficult to find anyone who can consistently score in double digits hanging out on wavers.

So, I got to thinking, is there something different going on this year? And then I did what any other self-respecting stats geek would do (in between ST:TNG episodes, of course), I made a table. Look at that sweet thing below. It’s a quick look at whatâ€™s been going on cumulatively in the NBA since 2002, including the first few weeks of this season (2006). I’ve included the 8 main roto categories, plus turnovers for those of you who like your leagues with a little pain and punishment.

Cumulative NBA Leaguewide Stats (2002-2006)

YEAR	FGP	FTP	3PT	REB	AST	TO	STL	BLK	PTS
2002	44.2	75.8	5.1	42.3	21.5	14.3	7.9	5.0	95.1
2003	43.9	75.2	5.2	42.2	21.3	14.2	7.9	5.1	93.4
2004	44.8	75.7	5.6	41.9	21.3	13.9	7.5	4.9	97.2
2005	45.4	74.6	5.7	41.0	20.6	13.8	7.2	4.7	97.0
2006	45.4	75.1	5.7	41.3	20.3	15.5	7.1	4.7	98.6

2002-2006 (% CHG)	2.7	-0.9	11.0	-2.3	-5.5	8.7	-10.1	-6.4	3.7

Well, points are certainly up over the past few years, from 95.1 to 98.6, but it seems like a relatively modest increase at less than 4%. Is that really going to change the way roto leagues operate? Maybe I’m hypersensitive to slight changes in the way the NBA operates, or maybe my mind is dreaming shit up again. Your call. On the other hand, both threes and turnovers are up pretty big, while steals, blocks, and assists are all down over 5%. Taken together, these trends lend credence to the idea of a more offensively focused league, with a little more run and gun and a little less of the D.

It’s really too soon to say anything about the new ball and its effect on the league, but that won’t stop me from noticing the strange jump in turnovers this year after a steady decrease from 2002-2005. They’re up almost 4 a game (2/team) compared to 2005. I’ll be curious to see if turnovers remain up, or if the universe rights itself over the course of the year.

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http://fantasybullsports.com/ Saeed

Well this table hardly presents anything new. Everyone knows that points are up, mostly because possessions per game are up, and consequently so will TOs. Big deal. It still doesn’t answer the question you posed at the top of this post: is it more difficult to find guys on waivers who will score?

I mean, just because there are more points in the league doesn’t mean that there will be more people scoring them. For instance, Kobe Bryant won the scoring title averaging 35 ppg last year, while in 2002 the title was won by AI who averaged almost 5 points less per contest. In other words, while scoring is up league-wide, that hardly means there will necessarily be more people doing the scoring. It could just mean that each team’s designated scorers are scoring more.

The way to answer that question, and what I expected in that table, was the following: choose a baseline cutoff of points per game, this cutoff representing a level of “usefulness” in that stat. This can be 10 ppg or 14 ppg, whatever number allows you to say “okay, I can afford to use a roster spot on this guy because I know he will give me this much ppg”. Then query the database for the number of players who averaged that many points or more per season, and do it for all seasons starting with 2002 (as you did here) til this season. This will give you an idea of whether the depth of scoring prowess has been diluted or not.

My guess is that the number of useful scorers in the league will be largely unchanged over the past few seasons.
http://www.givemetherock.com Patrick

Point taken Saeed. Your right, that table doesn’t say anything about WHO is scoring. I’ll take a deeper look and see if I can come up with a better answer to my question.
http://www.givemetherock.com Nels

Ask, and ye shall receive:

2006-07: 116 players with 10 PPG and at least 85% of games played

2005-06: 100 players with 10 PPG and at least 70 (85%) games played

2004-05: 93
2003-04: 96
2002-03: 92
2001-02: 98
2000-01: 93

That’s an 18% increase since 01-02, and a 26% increase
since 02-03 (which I believe is the first year Patrick was using for his comparison). So there are 26% more “quality” players who can consistently get you 10+ PPG.
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