December 29, 2006
With NBA stars falling like Zune sales, just about everyone’s fantasy teams are in need of a waiver pickup or eight. You don’t need me to run through the list (Fantasy Basketball Guy has the full rundown on the injured). But with multiple fantasy teams and even more articles discussing who to pick up and who not to, I’m frozen with information overload. Should I be interested in picking up Willie Green or not? How about Matt Barnes? Mikki Moore? Dare I say the word Nene?
Before I completely spaz, let me step back and try to examine the situation systematically. It’s best for me to look at this step by step.
1. Examine your team.
A Shallow League
In the Yahoo Champions League I’m in (a roto league with 10 teams 11 starters 4 bench players), I currently have Yao Ming, David West, Troy Murphy, and Monta Ellis on my bench. Four bench spots, 4 guys out. I also have Chris Webber hanging on by the cartilage left in his knee and Darko starting as my second center with Ming and Murphy out. The rest of the team is solid, but I currently have no reserve players.
A Slightly Deeper League
The Maine Hoops Roto League has 10 teams with 10 starters and 7 bench players. My team has been struggling all year long – “helped†out by the injuries and bad play of Tracy McGrady, Jason Richardson, Stephon Marbury, and Ron Artest. More recently, Nenad Krstic went down for the year and Josh Smith is out for at least a month. But even when healthy, this team has a major flaw (more on that to come).
2. Examine your situation.
Shallow
I was willing to wait on West when the rest of my team was healthy, but now Ming’s going to be out a while, and who knows with Ellis and Murphy. I’m getting tried of this day-to-day crap with Murphy that has lasted for weeks. Darko’s my team’s weakest link (followed by Larry Hughes), but he’s also healthy, so dropping him for someone else wouldn’t help my injury problems – especially at center. That would leave me with dropping West (with a frustrating lack of updates on his situation) or Murphy (who is aiming to come back next week, so they say).
Deeper
As mabeuf has observed, I’ve come to the point in the season where the flaws in my team have become blatantly obvious. I’m stuck in second to last place because my team can’t shoot. Thanks to many of the guys I’ve listed above, I’m last in both field goal and free throw percentage. Some of the weakest guys on my team include Quentin Richardson, Marvin Williams, and my main man, Darko. This team is in desperate need of a big-time shake-up, including making some tough trades with guys who can’t shoot but game is solid otherwise, like Artest.
3. Examine your options
Shallow
Gerald Green is probably the hottest guy out there on waivers. Rasual Butler, Ruben Patterson, and Sean May (also injured) are available as well. The search for a center isn’t quite as appealing. Since I wouldn’t touch Mutombo with a 10 foot pole, the best choices available are Rasho Nesterovic or Mikki Moore, neither of which is more appealing than Darko. Nene’s taken; he would have been a decent fit until Murphy (hopefully) returned. Of course, I could always try a pull off a trade, but I’m currently in second place, so I’m not in a rush to move injured players for less than full value.
Deeper
As I said above, this team has a problem that can only be solved with a trade. I’ve gotten to the point in the season where just about anyone on my team is available. Unfortunately, this is a difficult league to trade in (unrealistic expectations!). As for the waiver situation, Jannero Pargo is looking like a solid pickup with Chris Paul out for a month. Morris Peterson, Eduardo Najera, Sam Cassell, and Nazr Mohammed are also available. I should probably drop Quentin Richardson (as you can see – I have a problem dropping those day-to-day injured guys) and Darko is a bust at this point in the season.
4. Make a move.
Shallow
I’ve dropped Larry Hughes to ride Gerald Green until Pierce returns from injury. Since the total number of games is capped at 82 per position, I can probably ride out the injuries until Murphy comes back. I don’t feel good about waiting on West, but I’ve made it this far, so I’ve got to suck it up a little more.
Deeper
Dropped Richardson for Pargo. He’ll help with assists and FT% for the next month. I still need to work on trading some of my lower percentage guys, which as shown by RotoPoll, is more important than we all realize. mabeuf has a great list of buy low guys, Ming is a nice target for this team if I can pry him from his owner’s iron grip. I also like Caron Butler a lot, but I’ve been unsuccessful so far in trying to trade for him (And I’m not being stingy, I’ve offered Jermaine O’Neal and been rejected). I’ll keep working the trades for the sake of this team. We’ll see.
That exercise actually helped more than I expected. Give it a try in your league (if you’re a huge fantasy dork, that is).
We have reached the point in every fantasy season where your flaws and draft day shortcomings are blatantly obvious. The last 2 months you have been eying your statistical trends with the same furtive glances that you solicit to women at the bar. Well, now you are past the whole glancing nervously thing, past the whole buying her a drink thing and past the whole talking about how you also ‘love kids’ because she has two nieces and refuses to talk about anything but this (children of relatives, the conversation topic I hate the most). That’s right you and your subpar amount of three pointers are now sucking face over the gear shift while stopped at a red light on the way to her place to ‘borrow that movie/book/CD/Dungeons and Dragons rule book’ that she decided you have to watch/read/listen/roll a new dwarf paladin with (that was a damn long metaphor for sex, i am proud).
The point is, you should be well acquainted with your statistical deficiencies. With this newly engraved knowledge in hand, it is time to start shopping the market. It is still very early in the season so there is no reason to treat any player at full value or even consider over paying for a player. This will make it impossible to deal with some managers as they only pull the trigger on deals in which they 100% feel they are getting a Dollars to Euros conversion rate. Try to identify these owners and avoid badgering them at this early point of the year. Creating an argument or insulting them with a trade offer that you deem worthy, but they consider an affront to god will only make it harder to trade with them later in the year (this is a note, try to never have this mentality, just because someone offered you their draft bust for your steal and you feel like gouging their brain out is no reason to shut them out at a later point in the year, you never know what will come your way).
So with you…
1. Unwilling to overpay for a player
2. Unwilling to treat your targets at full value
3. Unable to yet haggle with more conservative managers
You are left with one alternative… Gambling!
Well, i should say logistical gambling. We are not trading away our best players for someone we think will blow up later in the season, rather we are going to make calculated risks that could maximize our benefits, but also provide a soft cushion to fall back upon.
The rules…
1. Target players that are undervalued. Let me make the following awful, yet visually appealing analogy. The other morning instead of sleeping i spent three hours watching Real World/Road Rules Challenge the Duel, yes i am embarrassed, but for some reason i could not look away. The utmost of these reasons being Svetlana Shusterman…
If you have seen this particular series of reality TV shows then you are familiar with the setup. Reality stars from previous incarnations of MTV shows compete in scantily clad challenges for prizes, whilst creating drama and continually dating/hookingup/cycling through one another. After watching three hours of this show, I can now officially declare myself an expert on it. My first act as an accredited RW/RR the Duel expert is to declare Svetlana the most undervalued person on the show. Not only does she find ways to overcome her competitive adversities and disadvantages, but no male on the show has shown an inkling of interest in her. Yea, you read that right, go ahead and scroll up, look at that picture, then re-read my last sentence. The whole point of the show is to get these people drunk and interested in one another, but for her… nothing, nada. That ladies and gentlemen is the ideal description of what you are looking for in a fantasy player at this point in the season.
2. Target players that are undervalued. I make a specific delineation because i want you to look for the players that will make a good last option, not just players that will revolutionize the makeup of your team. Think Hedo Turkoglu, Andres Nocioni or *gulps* Luke Walton.
3. Target hurt or devalued players. There are a ton of them. If you are sitting in the middle of the pack or even in first place and can afford to trade away some production now for increased production in the future, why the hell not? This pillar of logistical gambling is completely dependant on how deep your team is. If you had an awesome draft and have two players on the bench that you could be starting with little to no statistical hemorrhaging then reward yourself for your good draft! Trade some of your starters, move the bench up and add a quality player in the meantime. After all, your bench does not score points.
Also, look for one for one trades involving an injured player. This can get that stud on your bench into your lineup now and then bolster your lineup down the road.
4. Target players that will still have trade value. This means specialists. This early you could trade for a TJ Ford, a Gerald Wallace or an Alonzo Mourning and reap the benefits. You can do this because their specialties are continual durable productions at scare statistics that will always be in demand. Rent them for the category you need, after fortifying your totals in that stat, deal them again. This is like prostitution only without the phrase ‘double bagging.’
With those guidelines laid out, lets run down a shortlist of the 9 biggest names that you should consider acquiring, for the short term or the long term. This list does not reflect my previous advice of finding bottom of the lineup guys. I still encourage you to do that though.
1. Emeka Okafor - Why? Because his FT is atrocious. His owners in the leagues I monitor are getting 3 of 10, 3 of 12 and 5 of 12 points from FT%’s. Be a pal, help out his owner, Emeka is the perfect rental, there will always be a demand for his blocks.
2. AK-47 - His production is down. His owner is most likely disappointed and looking to move him. This all despite the fact that he is still the NBA’s biggest threat for a quadruple double and it’s only threat for a quintuple double.
3. Manu Ginobili - His production is also down. Tony Parker has become the second scoring option and it looks like Ginobili’s career as an ‘all-star’ is over for now. Compound that with the fact that he is having ridiculous trouble getting on and staying on the court. His injury problems seem like something you can ride out, especially if you can snag him for a lesser, but more consistent player.
4. Gerald Wallace - Again, production down. He has failed to live up to expectations, but still makes a solid addition to your team.
5. Zydrunas Illgauskas - Always a good big man to have producing. He is quietly doing his thing, so quietly his owner probably does not know his true value.
*the injured* Try trading for these players halfway through their injuries. At that point the owner is desperate, he wants production and recognizes that there is still too much time left before his star comes back. So for Marcus Camby that would be right now. This works so do not undervalue it, Tracy McGrady has been traded in 2 of the leagues i monitor, each owner got what they wanted and significantly improved their teams.
6. Marcus Camby- The true definition of a specialist. Shop for him while he is sidelined, the injury will hamper his offensive production when he comes back, but you can still block a shot with 4 fingers.
7. Rashard Lewis - He is out for awhile so you may wait a few more weeks. But we can surmise how badly you want him with two words… contract year.
8. Yao Ming - Do not expect Yao to pull a Shaq and take rehab as seriously as I consider Jessica Simpson a ‘triple threat’ (well, unless stupidity counts). I expect Yao to take a week of games to warm back up, but then pick-up where he left off.
9. Josh Smith - He is undervalued to begin with. I do not know what Josh Smith owners were expecting, but almost everyone I have talked to is disappointed. The injury only solidifies the fact that they are ready to move him.
There we go. Remember, try to trade for value and upside. It is still early in the year so mistakes can be hashed out, so do not fear risk taking. Just think about the risk before you take it, shop around some and I wish you good luck in landing your Svetlana…
December 28, 2006
The Carnival of the NBA #39: Holiday Edition is now up at Bullets Forever. A special thanks to Pradamaster for the link to the top 5 GMTR Christmas (or New Year’s – it’s not too late!) Gifts for 2006.
First there was Basketball Monster, now comes RotoPoll. For those who are statistically inclined, check out the RotoPoll Blog for fantasy analysis you can get lost in - including discussion of the most average fantasy player, the value of a missed shot, and some pretty slick player pages (complete with graphs).
December 27, 2006
Occasionally, we dole out fantasy basketball advice at Give Me The Rock (more of that coming soon) and to show you that were not completely full of shit ALL of the time, here’s proof of my team, Wanted - 7ft Serbs, at the top of the Basketbawful Invitational Fantasy League. Coupled with Nels’ run at the top of the Bloggers’ Experts League and I think it’s safe to say you’re in pretty good hands at GMTR. Of course, there’s that quote about a million monkeys at a million typewriters, or something like that, but I’ve been too busy winning fantasy leagues to pay any attention to stupid quotes.
Note that I’ve circled my team for that extra bit of pretentiousness
I felt the need to gloat this week because my second round pick, Rashard Lewis, and my third round pick, Josh Smith, will both likely be sidelined for far longer than my team’s stay at the top of the standings. It’s Jorge Garbajosa time!
December 26, 2006
I took the following picture after visiting my parents for the holidays. I swear to you, it has been hanging in exactly the same place on my parents’ basement door since they bought the house almost two decades ago. Notice the years of old tape and tear in the bottom left corner.
Ladies and gentlemen, the 1986 Boston Celtics! (click for larger)
Sadly, this is the reality in which many Celtics fans live. But, what I really want to know about this poster is, can anyone one-up that? Is there someone out there with a poster that’s been hanging up for more than 19 years? I want to see it!
December 23, 2006
Well, I hope you had a Happy Hanukkah. Last night was the eighth and final night of the annual Jewish holiday. Aside from lighting the menorah I failed to partake in any serious celebrations, working 70 hours a week will cause one to forget about the holidays. Because of this busy schedule I am a week and one day late with this article, but i still present to you my State of Jews in the NBA Address.
In the past decade the NBA has become borderless. Dozens of cultures and countries are represented in the ever-dynamic NBA culture. A multitude of languages can be heard on the court, from countrymen Manu Ginobili and Fabricio Oberto talking in Spanish, to me learning Greek compliments of Vassilis Spanoulis at every Rockets home-game (’Amenia’ is defense). Hell, DJ MBenga was born and raised in the Congo, has Belgian citizenship and can speak eight languages; not to mention never touched a basketball until age 19.
2006 was not a great year for Jewish culture in the United States. If the average American were asked what the most important moment for the Jewish faith was in the past year, Mel Gibson would probably come up. It’s never good when your year as a culture is remembered in the same breath as the phrase ‘Sugartits.’ Americans can also give an honorable mention to Sacha Baron Cohen and Borat the Movie, either way, it was not a landmark year. In the the realm of basketball Jews and the NBA lost the iconic Red Auerbach. Easily the greatest Jew to ever be involved in the game of basketball.
Despite this loss, the NBA’s sudden explosion of culture has given a proverbial circle of life and a new breath of Jewish involvement in the NBA has begun. So with that, let us break into the 2006-2007 all Jewish NBA first team… *drumroll*
06-07 All Jewish First Team
Center: N/A
Power Forward: N/A
Shooting/Small Forward: N/A
Shooting Guard: N/A
Point Guard: Jordan Farmar
That is right, if Jordan Farmar averages 30 turnovers a game, if he misses a crucial game seven shot with no time on the clock, if he blows his knee and does not play another game all year, he is still the best Jewish player in the NBA. When I asked my dad if he could name the only Jewish player he guessed Shane Battier, “It has to be someone who has a diverse mother and father, someone who you would never think.” Well, Jordan Farmar meets his description.
When Farmar suited up and played 13 minutes against the Suns on October 31st he ended an NBA culture drought. A Jewish player had not been on an NBA court since Danny Schayes, son of NBA Legend Dolph Schayes, last suited up for the Orlando Magic in the strike shortened season of 99. These seven years were the first time in NBA history that there were no Jewish players on rosters. That’s right, in those seven years the closest we came to having a Jew on the court was Bill Walton saying ‘watch as the lane parts like the Red Sea.’
Aside from Farmar, two Israeli players were drafted in the 2006 draft. Lior Eliyahu was drafted 44th by the Magic and traded to the Rockets, he has one year remaining on his contract before he can come stateside. Yotam Halperin was drafted 53rd by the Seattle SuperSonics, he failed to make the Sonics roster and his rights are still owned by the team. I can promise you i will talk more about both of these players in the future. I warn you, do not youtube either of those names, the videos are awful. Think picture slideshow to “Hot Stuff” by Donna Summer.
“What this is supposed to be a surprise?”
Your sports knowledge has most likely muttered this. There are several decades of contemporary professional sports to back up the stereotype that Jews are not athletes. Not to mention the beginning of the movie Airplane (’Stewardess, do you have any light reading?’ *Stewardess hands passenger Great Jewish Athletes*) . The best Jewish basketball player ever was Dolph Schayes and no contemporary NBA fan knows who he is. If an NBA commentator were to reference Dolph Schayes his co-anchors would make a chorus of atypical statements in agreement then change the subject (actually Stephen A. Smith would yell something like “Dolph! That’s my boy right there!). Dolph was selected to an All-NBA first or second team every year of his career but his last (6 All-First Teams) and made twelve straight All-Star Teams, every year but his rookie and final seasons. Dolph’s 24.9 PPG, 14.2 RPG and .904 FT% from 1958 would be welcome on your fantasy team. His stats were overshadowed by the legendary Bill Russell and Bob Pettit.
Remember Me?
The NBA, despite it’s lackluster on court representation, actually has a significant delegation of Jews in it’s highly revered ownership circle. One third of NBA owners are Jewish…
Atlanta Hawks - Steve Belkin*
Chicago Bulls - Jerry Reinsdorf
Dallas Mavericks - Mark Cuban
Detroit Pistons - William Davidson
Houston Rockets - Leslie Alexander
LA Clippers - Donald Sterling
Miami Heat - Micky Arison
Milwaukee Bucks - Senator Herb Kohl
New Jersey Nets - Bruce Ratner
Washington Wizards - Abe Pollin
This list contains 12 NBA titles, a U.S. Senator, the most outspoken/entertaining owner ever and some unexpected cultural cohesion. Who would of thought that both incarnations of the Detroit Bad Boys were financed by an elderly Jewish man who just wanted to win. The same could be said for the unlikely business pairing of Jay Z and Harvard grad/real-estate mogul Bruce Ratner. This just goes to show that the NBA is destroying cultural boundaries even in the front office.
On top of this compiling of owners, the league’s big daddy himself can be found in Temple, David Stern. If i did not already know this and had to guess, I would say David Stern were a Catholic nun. The strict dress code, no tolerance for back talk, Stern fits the stereotypical role of movie Nun perfectly. I heard he was cast for each Sister Act movie, but was cut from the production because his portrayal of a Nun overshadowed all of Whoopi Goldberg’s terrible one line jokes.
So there you have it, the State of Jews in the NBA 2006-07. From NBA Commissioner to 10 owners to the Lakers rookie backup point guard with nothing but Lawrence Frank in between.
Is that Jigga in the background? If he is converting he better bring Beyonce.
Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, Crazy Kwanzaa, now go fall asleep while the Heat play the Lakers on Christmas Day for the third consecutive year…. boring! Can’t we have the 76ers and Bobcats play, only the winner gets holiday pay for the game?
December 22, 2006
With Christmas only a couple of days away, here is an early edition of The Week In Trends (as I will be busy heckling carolers over the weekend). Stick a bow on it and give it as a gift to your loved ones.
Trending Up
| Name |
Rank 12/22 |
Rank 12/17 |
Change in Rating |
| Alexander Johnson |
195 |
264 |
1.7 |
| Pau Gasol |
128 |
167 |
1.6 |
| John Salmons |
129 |
147 |
0.9 |
| Brad Miller |
164 |
195 |
0.9 |
| Speedy Claxton |
177 |
209 |
0.8 |
| Gerald Wallace |
112 |
132 |
0.7 |
| Earl Watson |
176 |
203 |
0.7 |
| Josh Howard |
31 |
36 |
0.7 |
| Channing Frye |
180 |
208 |
0.7 |
| Tony Allen |
172 |
199 |
0.6 |
- First, let’s talk about a Tony Allen and Gerald Wallace, who appear on the list for the second straight week. Since this table is based on a shortened week, Allen and Wallace have only played one game, however, they both made it a good one. With Sean May out for a second straight game, Wallace had 28 points and 5 steals in 48 minutes. Those 48 minutes involved 2 overtimes and an eventual loss thanks to David Lee tip. Wait to see what happens when May returns. Tony Allen is likely gone from just about every waiver wire out there now that Paul Pierce is out for 2-3 weeks with an injury. It’s all about the kids, right? Well, it’s time to see what a West/Allen/Green rotation will do for the Celtics.
- Channing Frye scored a career high 30 points in that Knicks/Bobcats double overtime game. It’s nice to see him put up more points than Kobe Bryant this week, but I think everyone’s expectations are still tempered at this point.
- Are you in need of assists? Claxton’s gotten some attention for his play while Tyronne Lue has been out with a groin strain. Ride him while you can.
- Good news for Gasol owners - he’s been looking better by the game. His last one saw 16 points in 23 minutes. Personally, I thought there was no way he’d be back so soon, but I’m some sort of a bizarro RotoGuru anyway.
- A couple of days ago, I traded Ricky Davis for Brad Miller, which means that I’ve just screwed all of you Brad Miller owners out there. Be on the lookout for his upcoming injury.
- John Salmons is filling for a hurting Ron Artest, but it looks like Ron Artest will be back soon, if not tonight.
- Quick word association. Josh Howard :: Solid.
- Alexander Johnson? If you’re hungry for more information, check out this HoopsWorld article, Grizzlies: Introducing Alexander Johnson a.k.a. Alexander The Great
At the 1:26 mark of the second quarter, Johnson entered the game. By the 1:12 mark, Johnson officially introduced himself to the home crowd with a thunderous dunk. Just seconds later, Johnson registered his first block of the game against Zach Randolph. Randolph proceeded to miss his final two shots of the half against the defense of Johnson. Not only did Johnson’s energy stabilize Randolph, but he continued to frustrate Randolph until finally fouling out late in the fourth quarter. Johnson finished the game with 6 points (4-4 FT), 7 rebounds (4 OFF), one blocked shot and one assist in less than 19 minutes of play.
Trending Down
| Name |
Rank 12/22 |
Rank 12/17 |
Change in Rating |
| Kobe Bryant |
8 |
3 |
-1.3 |
| Shareef Abdur-Rahim |
143 |
123 |
-0.8 |
| Jason Richardson |
175 |
151 |
-0.7 |
| Kevin Garnett |
4 |
2 |
-0.6 |
| Al Harrington |
123 |
102 |
-0.6 |
| Andres Nocioni |
73 |
60 |
-0.5 |
| Carlos Boozer |
27 |
23 |
-0.5 |
| Monta Ellis |
66 |
58 |
-0.5 |
| Rasheed Wallace |
43 |
40 |
-0.5 |
| Mike Bibby |
74 |
62 |
-0.5 |
Happy Holiday’s everyone! I hope you all get that HDTV you’ve been waiting for.
