Give Me The Rock
this is fantasy basketball
So far, the 2006 draft has lived up to it’s billing. A few handfulls of semi-rich soil and a truckload of hot-steaming compost. I say this, because we are finally past the ‘draft climax,’ or the time period before and after a draft where the draft-class is “full of talent” and “filled with impact players.” We are all familiar with the routine by now, the carousel of ESPN analysts laud the abilities of the players endlessly. The only good thing about draft shows is when Rick Majerus gets on the screen. He either says something insightful, hilarious or complains about how he has not eaten since the show began.
Back on topic. Your fantasy team needs emerging statistical trends to make it increasingly viable. The Andris Biedrins, Kevin Martins and Zaza Pachulias are gone from the waiver wire, but you can emulate a real manager and look at the swamp and marsh that was the 2006 NBA Draft for help… well you would think.
The reality is that aside from Adam Morrison the 2006 Draft has been a fantasy question mark. It seems that David Stern’s desire to eliminate the drafting of long term developmental projects in favor of ready made players with immediate impact has failed thus far; though one month of the season is hardly a viable sample base. Stern’s best Joel Madden impersonation has yet to have an impact and no one realizes it more than fantasy owners. This is evidenced by the fact that your league likely has three or less starting rookies, Adam Morrison, Brandon Roy (hurt i know) and one of Shelden Williams, Andrea Bargnani or Rudy Gay. Wait… did you not get the Joel Madden analogy? Let me explain, Joel Madden, 27 and lead singer of Good Charlotte, just broke up with his girlfriend of two and a half years, Hilary Duff, 19. Let me put this in perspective, this would be like newly 20 Andrew Bynum dating his cross town rival Elton Brand, 27. According to gossip and media, the reason for the breakup was the age difference. How did that just now become the problem? I think the eight year gap should of been the issue when Kevin Love ,17, and Andrei Kirilenko, 25, started dating. Either way, good call David Stern, no underage dating between NBA players.
Time to get to the chart! The following chart outlines key statistics in per 48m format. Rookies do not get the same amount of time as other players thus I look at this stat for developing trends. You have to think like an NBA coach or manager. You do not look at a rookies overall statistical production or even his per game production, rather you look at what he does in the brief time he has on the court. Obviously, i rule out players with little to no playing time despite their per 48m production. This chart should provide you a guide of players to monitor. Watch the playing time of the highlighted players because their stats indicate they deserve more court time.
Bargnani, Aldridge and Gay should be no surprise. Aldridge is not owned in most leagues, but for him production is an issue of consistency, not playing time. He finds the court easily on the atrocious Las Vegas TrailBlazers averaging 23 minutes a contest. The two players this chart exposes the most are Marcus Williams and Jordan Farmar. Both already have value to their teams by putting up valuable numbers off the bench in limited roles (under 20mpg each). When their minutes approach 24 mpg you should consider adding each to your roster, assuming you play in a league as large as my own.
Overall, the chart exposes the weakness of the short term value of the 2006 1st round. Though my use of the phrase ‘short term’ is pretty liberal, as only a month has passed. I will try and keep this chart going month to month to give us an idea of the developing trends in rookie production and floor time.
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