Time to Start Getting Real

Categorized as: Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy
Posted on: December 29th, 2006

With NBA stars falling like Zune sales, just about everyone’s fantasy teams are in need of a waiver pickup or eight. You don’t need me to run through the list (Fantasy Basketball Guy has the full rundown on the injured). But with multiple fantasy teams and even more articles discussing who to pick up and who not to, I’m frozen with information overload. Should I be interested in picking up Willie Green or not? How about Matt Barnes? Mikki Moore? Dare I say the word Nene?

Before I completely spaz, let me step back and try to examine the situation systematically. It’s best for me to look at this step by step.

1. Examine your team.

A Shallow League

In the Yahoo Champions League I’m in (a roto league with 10 teams 11 starters 4 bench players), I currently have Yao Ming, David West, Troy Murphy, and Monta Ellis on my bench. Four bench spots, 4 guys out. I also have Chris Webber hanging on by the cartilage left in his knee and Darko starting as my second center with Ming and Murphy out. The rest of the team is solid, but I currently have no reserve players.

A Slightly Deeper League

The Maine Hoops Roto League has 10 teams with 10 starters and 7 bench players. My team has been struggling all year long – “helped” out by the injuries and bad play of Tracy McGrady, Jason Richardson, Stephon Marbury, and Ron Artest. More recently, Nenad Krstic went down for the year and Josh Smith is out for at least a month. But even when healthy, this team has a major flaw (more on that to come).

2. Examine your situation.

Shallow

I was willing to wait on West when the rest of my team was healthy, but now Ming’s going to be out a while, and who knows with Ellis and Murphy. I’m getting tried of this day-to-day crap with Murphy that has lasted for weeks. Darko’s my team’s weakest link (followed by Larry Hughes), but he’s also healthy, so dropping him for someone else wouldn’t help my injury problems – especially at center. That would leave me with dropping West (with a frustrating lack of updates on his situation) or Murphy (who is aiming to come back next week, so they say).

Deeper

As mabeuf has observed, I’ve come to the point in the season where the flaws in my team have become blatantly obvious. I’m stuck in second to last place because my team can’t shoot. Thanks to many of the guys I’ve listed above, I’m last in both field goal and free throw percentage. Some of the weakest guys on my team include Quentin Richardson, Marvin Williams, and my main man, Darko. This team is in desperate need of a big-time shake-up, including making some tough trades with guys who can’t shoot but game is solid otherwise, like Artest.

3. Examine your options

Shallow

Gerald Green is probably the hottest guy out there on waivers. Rasual Butler, Ruben Patterson, and Sean May (also injured) are available as well. The search for a center isn’t quite as appealing. Since I wouldn’t touch Mutombo with a 10 foot pole, the best choices available are Rasho Nesterovic or Mikki Moore, neither of which is more appealing than Darko. Nene’s taken; he would have been a decent fit until Murphy (hopefully) returned. Of course, I could always try a pull off a trade, but I’m currently in second place, so I’m not in a rush to move injured players for less than full value.

Deeper

As I said above, this team has a problem that can only be solved with a trade. I’ve gotten to the point in the season where just about anyone on my team is available. Unfortunately, this is a difficult league to trade in (unrealistic expectations!). As for the waiver situation, Jannero Pargo is looking like a solid pickup with Chris Paul out for a month. Morris Peterson, Eduardo Najera, Sam Cassell, and Nazr Mohammed are also available. I should probably drop Quentin Richardson (as you can see – I have a problem dropping those day-to-day injured guys) and Darko is a bust at this point in the season.

4. Make a move.

Shallow

I’ve dropped Larry Hughes to ride Gerald Green until Pierce returns from injury. Since the total number of games is capped at 82 per position, I can probably ride out the injuries until Murphy comes back. I don’t feel good about waiting on West, but I’ve made it this far, so I’ve got to suck it up a little more.

Deeper

Dropped Richardson for Pargo. He’ll help with assists and FT% for the next month. I still need to work on trading some of my lower percentage guys, which as shown by RotoPoll, is more important than we all realize. mabeuf has a great list of buy low guys, Ming is a nice target for this team if I can pry him from his owner’s iron grip. I also like Caron Butler a lot, but I’ve been unsuccessful so far in trying to trade for him (And I’m not being stingy, I’ve offered Jermaine O’Neal and been rejected). I’ll keep working the trades for the sake of this team. We’ll see.

That exercise actually helped more than I expected. Give it a try in your league (if you’re a huge fantasy dork, that is).

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