Give Me The Rock
this is fantasy basketball
or: When a sprained knee is “two to eight weeks” it’s not a good thing for fantasy owners of A-Ja, but possibly a time for rejoicing among the Swagginators
Bullets Forever had the scoop as far as I’m concerned. The Newly Redesigned Yahoo Sports has news from Rotowire with the 3-6 week prognosis. Pradamaster, of the former, is actually a little happy that Jamison is out:
while the Wizards offense suffers tremendously when Jamison doesn’t play, the defense actually gets significantly better. The Wizards’ score 115.1 points per 100 posessions when Jamison’s in there, compared to 104.9 when he’s not. However, the Wizards also allow 113.3 points per 100 posessions when Jamison plays, compared to 106 when he’s out. The net difference is +3.0 points, which indicates that Jamison’s presence certainly helps, but is not incredibly essential. By contrast, the net difference with Gilbert Arenas is +30.3 points, the net difference with Caron Butler is +14.1 points, the net difference with Brendan Haywood is +9.5, and the net difference with Etan Thomas is +4.7. I don’t think you’ll find people saying that Antawn Jamison is the fifth most important Wizard, but these numbers back it up.
All very interesting of course, but does it help us figure out what the fantasy impact is? Well, not really. Considering that the most likely person to step up in Jamison’s absence is Jarvis Hayes. The Wizards backup PF is Calvin Booth, and I don’t really see that happening. Normally, Darius Songaila would probably be the one stepping up, but he isn’t expected back until the All-Star Break. That glorious festival is drawing closer all the time, though, so Songaila is one to put on your Watch List.
Andray Blatche got 16 minutes (almost a season high), but wasn’t able to do much with that time. If he can step up a little, he might merit more minutes and become fantasy relevant in deeper leagues. But Songaila will probably be back before that scenario can play out in its entirety.
So, the end result of the Wizards fantasy analysis is really just that Agent Zero and C-But owners will continue to ride those horses. The FG percents might drop a bit since those two will probably be taking more shots, but the production will otherwise remain high. If Jamison is out for the full 6 weeks, then Arenas and Butler owners can look forward to 4 games per week for the 3 weeks after the All-Star break.
The flip side is that Jamison owners will be missing out on those 4 game weeks. The Wiz only play 3 games next week, and 1 game the week of the All-Star game, so if Jamison comes back at the 3 week end of his rehab, there won’t be too much missed opportunity. If he is out longer than that, you can try dangling him as a trade lure as the deadline approaches. Someone on the Nuggets, Pistons, Pacers, Seattle, or Utah will give you a good number of games during the time that Jamison would have missed, as well as good consistency in games/week as the season closes out.
Something to note (even if you don’t have any Wizards you might be competing for the top spot with someone who has Arenas or Butler): The Wizards play 2 games the week of March 12th, but then have 4 straight weeks of 4 games and 2 games in the final “week” to finish things off. And, they’ll probably be competing for the top spot in the Southeast with Orlando and Miami.
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