Follow Give Me The Rock
TwoTimesRalphi over at PistonsForum.com is asking what people are doing about Wade in their fantasy leagues. The only response I saw when visiting the site was from LA Dre:
I was holding on to him, but not sure why. it looks like by the time he comes back the fantasy playoffs will be just about ending. I will probably release him this week when I need another able body for stats.
Patrick has another response for you over here. And I’ve got one for you right here… in some kind of f’in depth.
Now, in general, what it’s going to come down to, is The Replacements. AKA, who do you have that can take over for Wade? As much as number phreaks want it to be, fantasy basketball isn’t an perfectly numbers oriented science. And even if it was, who carries around SAS or SPSS on their computer and knows how to run them? Probably just Patrick.
So, let’s break it down as best we can, first by H2H vs. Roto, because when considering a fantasy player of Wade’s caliber, you must be thorough.
H2H
If you’re headed to the playoffs, keep him. If he is able to come back for any of the last few weeks of the season, he will help you through the playoffs just as he helped get you there.
If you’re not so confident about making the playoffs, trade him. Unless you’re in a shallow league, there’s probably not someone good enough in the Free Agent pool to make it worth dropping Wade. But if you can trade him for one or two (yes, I’m possibly actually advocating a 2-for-1 trade here) decent players, use Wade’s future potential for some added punch that will help you get to the playoffs. And then just hope you don’t have to play the team to which you traded him.
If you’re not going to make the playoffs no matter what, then honestly, you’ve wasted one of the season’s best fantasy players anyway, so you might as well just go down with the ship.
Take that spanking
If you are in a keeper league, and you are able to keep Wade around for next season, then by all means, do that. He’s young enough that he should be able to make a full recovery after some summer surgery.
Roto
The same sort of rules used for the H2H analysis apply here:
If you’re leading the categories Wade is good at, then you can wait for him to come back and finish you off. If you need help, or if you don’t have any decent replacements already on your roster, then the numbers will come into play. With Roto, you don’t have to worry about week to week numbers, so you can basically take a Free Agents’ (or trade prospects’) average numbers (I’d recommend looking at not just season, but also the last month averages), multiply those numbers by the number of games they have left and then compare that to a similar measure for the number of games you think Wade will play if/when he comes back. (Make sure to be a little conservative in your estimate for Wade, since he probably won’t be at 29, 8, and 5)
Take a high number and a low number for your Wade estimate. If his totals will match a Free Agent’s or traded player’s numbers somewhere in that range, then you’ll have to decide what your level of confidence is that he’ll play that number of games.
If there’s a Free Agent available whose total estimated stats will be higher than Wade’s even if Wade plays Patrick’s max estimate of 16 games (this should be more likely the smaller your league is), then it’s probably worth it to make the pick up.
Of course, this is still a heartbreakingly personal process. Every game you wait to acquire more information on Wade’s status is another game you lose having someone else play. If you wait for Wade, but Shaq continues to carry the team into the playoffs, then maybe Wade will wait out the rest of the season to save himself for the playoffs, and you’ve lost 23 games that someone else could have played. That’s a lot of statistical accumulation.
On the other hand, if the Heat are just barely in contention for the playoffs, and Shaq is playing decently, it’s not hard for one to imagine Wade coming back and carry half the team on his one good shoulder while Shaq uses a shoulder for the other half. Even with an arm in sling, Wade can probably pass and rebound pretty decently.
Gratuitous cheerleader pic
Gratuitous Gene Hackman pic
Made it this far? Okay, then you deserve my bottom line. If you’ve already held Wade for the 2 weeks since his injury, it’s probably worth it to keep him for another 3 and hope he comes back strong. That’s my strategy in the Dropping Dimes Experts League. But then, I’m top 3 there right now. Your situation might warrant a Replacement Player to carry your cheerleader ass through the season.
You can always ask for advice for your specific situation via comments, email, or fora.
