While fantasy basketball keeper leagues aren’t totally widespread just yet, those that exist come in all shapes and sizes. The differences between a one-year keeper league and a perpetual dynasty league is so vast that it’s meaningless to offer a one-size fits all guide to keepers.
Instead, I can only offer my experience in a one-year keeper league that has a yearly auction. In this league, you get $75 to draft 15 players and can keep up to 3 players that were on your roster at the end of the previous year (excluding players that already have been kept). The cost to keep a player is what they went for in the last auction + $1.50. After a few go arounds in the league, I’ve managed to categorize keepers into 5 general categories:
Just Done Gone Blowed Up
The winning Powerball ticket of keepers - the chances aren’t great but the payoff is huge. Most years there are one or two guys, usually first or second year players who are a little light on the hype going into the year but become superstars right (or almost right) out of the gate. Chris Paul is the perfect example of someone who received relatively little hype as a rookie but shined out of the gate. He was an absolute steal at the $3.00 or so it cost for his owner to keep him the following year. I don’t know of anyone I’d put in this category this year. Josh Smith and/or Leandro Barbosa would come the closest, but I wouldn’t quite put him such selected company.
The Injured Studs
Personally, my favorite type of keeper because 1) I tend to draft a lot of injured guys and 2) people are wary of injury risks on auction day. In my auction league, Paul Gasol and Amare Stoudemire went for about 50-60% of their normal (healthy) value. Next year, their lucky owners (not me) will get to keep top 25 players under market value. Note that it’s important to differentiate between guys with a one-time injury (Gasol and Stoudemire) from the chronically injured (Grant Hill). The latter does not make a good keeper. I suck a predicting injuries, so I’ll let you make the call on someone like Marcus Camby.
It’s More of a Hop Than a Leap
I wouldn’t put them in the category of blowing up, but there are certainly a larger collection of guys whose game takes a big step forward over the course of the year. Again, it helps to be young: Kevin Martin, Josh Howard, Luol Deng, Brandon Roy, and Monta Ellis will all be much more pricey in an auction next year than the amount they can be kept for. There is value to be had with this group of players.
Rookies
Unlike the rooks that sometimes fall into categories 1 and 3, these guys didn’t make any great leaps forward, but the potential is there. They’re usually cheap too, so there is always the low-risk/high reward angle. LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, and Jorge Garbajosa are by no means sure things in 2008, but the price is right.
The Veterans’ Committee
Desperation is setting in now. We’re pretty much done on getting significant value from a keeper. But, sometimes it pays to keep a guy anyway even if he’d cost just as much in an auction. For example, out of better options, I could decide to keep Yao Ming at $14. I’m probably not saving any money, but it’ll help me plan out the rest of my team and ensure that I’ll have a stud center to build a team around.
That’s my view on short-term keepers in an auction league. In case you’ve been wondering, my three keepers for next year are Josh Smith (at $6.50), Luol Deng ($4.50), and Brandon Roy ($3.00). That’s much improved from last year when my one keeper was Jason Richardson.
While I have no experience in long-term keeper leagues, I would assume that rookies and other early career guys become much more valuable the longer you’re able to keep players. If you’ve played in a keeper league, check in and let me know what you think.
Dude quotes from an article, and while you should go read the whole post over there, here’s the quote:
Beck Taylor and Justin Trogdon [in an article published in 2002 in The Journal of Labor Economics] wondered how the incentive to lose altered the behavior of NBA teams. During the 1983–84 season, the year before the lottery was established, these authors found that teams eliminated from the playoffs were, relative to playoff teams, about 2.5 times more likely to lose. This result was uncovered after they controlled for team quality. In other words, non-playoff teams were found to lose more often than one would expect even bad teams to fail. When the lottery was instituted the next season, though, the increased tendency of non-playoff teams to lose vanished.
That is not the end of the story. In 1990 the NBA instituted a weighted lottery, where the odds of landing the top pick would improve the more the team lost. Once again, teams in the NBA had an incentive to lose. Once again Taylor and Trogdon report that after controlling for team quality, non-playoff teams were more likely to lose, although the size of the effect was smaller. With a weighted lottery non-playoff teams were only 2.2 times more likely to lose. Hence, as the incentives these teams faced were changed, the behavior changed as well.
To relate this to fantasy basketball (oh, is that what this blog is about?), let’s take a look at RotoPoll’s Daily Player rankings for the day of April 18, 2007 (which just happens to be the last day of the 2007 season):
1. Rajon Rondo
2. Travis Outlaw
3. Amir Johnson
4. Randy Foye
5. David West
6. Earl Boykins
7. Tarance Kinsey
8. Willie Green
9. Luke Jackson
10. Chris Bosh
Now, I haven’t done any sort of research as to whether more “superstars” (aka 1st and 2nd round fantasy picks) are usually represented in the Top 10 players. BUT when the top 9 positions are occupied who probably went undrafted in most leagues (maybe Rondo, Foye, West, and Boykins, but those would be fairly late round picks), something ain’t right.
Now, the obvious solution to tanking, as you can see from the article quoted above, is to make the draft lottery completely random once again. Then, the only reason to “rest” your starters is to make sure they don’t get hurt. From a fantasy standpoint, that does a decent job of trying to make teams play all their players at the end of the season, but it’s really more a move to make it so teams like Boston and Memphis don’t just tank right from the very start of the season.
So, here’s my second diatribical argument, by way of fellow Chicago blogger Basketbawful in this Apology to Mike D’Antoni post. The point of the post is that the Suns were playing their starters for 27-35 per game minutes at the end of the season, and they came out and beat the Lakers twice in fairly convincing fashion, while Dallas - who, if you recall was resting their starters for what some might consider a badonkulous amount of games - lost game 1 to the Warriors and were not winning convincingly game 2 (at least until Baron was thrown out). “Now,” you might say, “the Warriors just have the Mavericks number.” But, as Exhibit 2, I will point out that San Antonio, 3 of whose starters didn’t play the last 2 games of the season, lost game 1 to Denver, who only rested their starters for the last game of the season. Okay, it’s not that strong of an argument for continuing to play your guys through the end of the season (which would be optimal), but conversely, it is a strong argument for:
Limit the Max number of Games Played to 75
That solution is provided on behalf of fantasy basketball managers worldwide. Anyone know who I can contact at Yahoo to have them set that as the default for MGP? Cause I don’t see David Stern altering the lottery process, nor do I see coaches playing guys all the way to the end once playoff positions are determined. So please, if you are a fantasy league commissioner next season, do yourself and your fellow managers a favor and lower that Max Games Limit.
Darko was supposed to be my Viagra, but instead he left my teams flaccid, underperforming, and with heart palpitations. It’s unfair to put the blame ALL on him, as this year saw a high on season ending injuries, guys taking off the last month of the season, and teams deliberately tanking for a high draft pick (thanks Doc Rivers, I enjoyed watching).
Was anyone else very disappointed in the NBA this year? Maybe it’s my fantasy teams, because like Nels, I didn’t win a damn thing. Some people only like to brag about what they’ve won, but here at Give Me The Rock, we feel that there is something to be learned from losing. And that means I’ve learned a whole lot this year:
Basketbawful Fantasy League: 3rd place (out of 14). F**k fantasy basketball, f**k this league, and f**k H2H. As described in this post, my team was in first place for most of the year until the H2H playoffs, when I ended up in 3rd. The guys over at Basketbawful called this league (and I’m paraphrasing and/or putting words in their mouth) the demonic love-child of Adolph Hitler and Michael Jackson.
Lesson Learned: I hate leagues with playoffs.
Yahoo Champions League: 2nd place (out of 10). Sadly, this would be my best showing on the year (I have the shiny silver trophy to show for it). Overall, it wasn’t a bad performance considering the league only had four bench spots and I dealt with the aforementioned Darko situation as well as significant injuries to Yao Ming, Michael Redd, and David West. I had high hopes for Steve Francis as my starting point guard at the beginning of the year. This ultimately led me to having a revolving door at the PG position, and employing Francis, Shaun Livingston, Mike James, Delonte West, Sam Cassell, Jose Calderon, Brevin Knight, and Tyronn Lue at various times throughout the year.
Lesson Learned: Don’t underestimate the point guard position in roto leagues. They are tough to find as free agents.
APBR League: 4th place (out of 8th). It was a roto league with about 85 categories (including minutes, FT made, FG made, 3pt percentage, disqualifications, and ejections). It also had 14 positions (2 PG, 2 SG, 1 G, 2 SF, 2 PF, 2 C, 2 UTIL) and was a daily changes league with no games limit, so overall scores were highly correlated with the number of games someone could squeeze out of their team. I did what I could considering I had no idea about some of the categories (quick, give me a player who is good in disqualifications) and the fact that by January, changing in and out 14 players everyday made it feel like I was doing my taxes rather than playing fantasy basketball.
Lesson Learned: Know your categories. And no max games limit sucks the fun out of the festivities.
Maine Hoopsters: 6th place (out of 10th). I’m most disappointed with this finish out of all the leagues I played in. It’s an auction league in which I went for the win last year and traded away most of my keepers (the one keeper I would not trade away was Jason Richardson… you can laugh now). Still, I was hoping for big things partly because this is a league I play in with friends and partly because the winner of the league gets $500+. But, this year I made a dubious auction decision (drafting an entire team of mid-round guys) and was ultimately left without any big guns. The one bright spot this year is that with my team being out of contention, I was able to hold on to some pretty solid keepers for next year - Josh Smith, Luol Deng, and Brandon Roy.
Lesson Learn: Much like Nels’ fabled mid-ball team, I tried to make my own mid-ball team, made up entirely of 3rd to 7th round players. It failed miserably.
As you can see in the GMTR mock draft (more to come on that later), any guy as high on Darko as I was doesn’t deserve to win a fantasy league. But I learned some things along the way and I realize it could be worse. I could be a Wizards fan on the verge of watching my team get destroyed in the playoffs.
First of all, fill out your bracket on BallHype.com. Somehow - I blame statistics - the more people that register, the less chance I have of actually winning. And you’d think, since I didn’t win a damn thing this season, that I’d be desperately trying to win something. But, I’m so over it.
Okay, but not over it enough to not go over it. Worry not, I’ll make it quick. From top to bottom:
Kentucky Fried Basketball Association: 2nd place (of 16). I had the best record in the league and lost by 11 points to the guy with the second best record: 225 - 214. Those 11 points represent about 5% of the total score, so you can see how close it is. I blame Tayshaun.
Dropping Dimes Experts League: 4th place (of 12). I was lucky enough to be in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place for much of the season. Then editor_njt64 from TalentedMrRoto.com jumped 5.5 points in the standings on the last day of the season. Before that, I don’t think I’d seen anyone get more than a +2 on a given day. How the Hell did that happen? Seriously! I’d again like to place some of the blame on Tayshaun, but also, some of the fault is mine for hoping that Andre Iguodala and Jermaine O’Neal would play while I had Bostjon Nachbar and Travis Outlaw on my bench. Really, though, I’m satisfied with my effort. Since I’m now confident in my drafting ability, I will focus on my close out next season.
HoopsAddict.com League: 19th place (of 24). This team was kind of like the Memphis Grizzlies of fantasy basketball… Injuries galore, and no good way to make up for them in a points league with 24 teams. I’ve ranted about that one before, so I’ll leave it at that.
And that’s that.
Now, I realize that Chicago is taking on the Defending NBA Champion Miami Heat, but the Bulls are in one of only two series that are being broadcast on ABC. So, really, the subtitle should read “Time to use the playoffs as an excuse to hit the bars for the nachos and the beers.” Nachos and Beers, Babies!
or: The end of the something I did not want to end,
Begining of hard times to come.
But something that was not meant to be is done,
And this is the start of what was.
- The Streets, Empty Cans
A recent report shows that this blog is at risk of becoming a General NBA Blog and losing it’s precious status as a Fantasy Basketall Blog. I’m considering joining the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. I imagine this would give us (and by us, I mean, me - since Patrick has actually got the skills to hold down his cred without “paid-for” credentials) more respectability, some extra junk mail, and perhaps even some sort of authority when it comes to fantasy basketball. Until then, here’s some fantasy links…
And Fantasy Basketblog is off to their summer break. Of course, with the brilliant work they do, they deserve it. This blog runs year round to make up for lack of quality with strength in quantity. I haven’t seen 300, but I’d imagine if I had, I could make a good metaphor at this point. If you’ve seen it, feel free to imagine one riiiiiiight… now.
I’ll hit you up tomorrow with my league wrap-up, and my thoughts on the final playoff seeding. Until then, think about this: Triple-Header on Sunday!
I’m so ready for the playoffs. I am also really tempted to give a recap of where I’m standing fantasy-wise right now, but with only 3 days left, I realize it can wait until the final results are in. And really, it’s not going to be as impressive as anything Clark Olson does anyway.
PS: Tanking teams are obviously bad for fantasy basketball. Does anyone else feel that it’s bad for basketball in general? I’ve got more opinion to express in this vein of thinking.
One other thing: Miami v Dallas. If Dirk takes it to the hole instead of settling for jumpers, Dallas in 6.
That said, Detroit has Webber; that said, Chicago beat Detroit 3-1 (don’t mention the injuries, I’ve seen the box scores); LeBron might get mad enough to will the Cavaliers to win; Dwight Howard is a Force; Dallas and San Antonio went to 7 last year; Denver and Houston both qualify as Dark Horses; Golden State leads the Dallas series 2-0 with one more tomorrow.
Having only been to about 2 playoff basketball games, my most enduring memory of live basketball games was when Jannero Pargo scored the 100th point on a floater in the lane against the Bobcats of Charlotte. That was the loudest I’d heard the UC get until that OT game against the Cavs just about 2 weeks ago now. Yes, sir. I can remember that moment as well as I can remember just about anything else that has occurred in my life. And not just because it was loud. Because everyone in that stadium wanted the Big Mac.
That game against the Cavs, I wanted a Big Mac, sure. But I wasn’t sweating and jumping out of my seat and yelling and almost crying because of the Big Mac. I was doing all that because it was a close game and not a 30 point blow out.
So if the Knicks, or just Stevie and Nate Rob, want to complain, then they should provide better fucking entertainment. They should make people cheer for the Bulls to win the game instead of having to even take an interest in getting a free Big Mac. That’s on you. Eat ‘em dry.
