Give Me The Rock

Before getting to the percentages - some housekeeping. With the ink dry on the 2007 regular season, I’ve done one final update to the GMTR fantasy basketball player rater. It now contains the full and final rankings for the season, for what that’s worth to you. Dwyane Wade finished as the top rated player on a per game basis, or, if you take into account the number of games played, the best player in the league was Mr. radio interview himself… Kobe Bryant.

Kobe’s game is louder than his shoes, if that’s possible

(As an aside, I’ve realized I’ve been linking to Google docs and the GMTR player rater incorrectly this entire time by proving a link directly to the spreadsheet, which requires one to have and be signed into a Google account, rather than publishing the sheet and linking to that, which is much faster and allows anyone to view it. My bad. That should now be fixed, but I’m expecting my Google referral check in the mail any day now.)

Who were the most effective shooters from a fantasy perspective in 2007? As explained in this post, to really gauge the effectiveness of a player’s percentages, it’s important to not only look at their actual free throw and field goal percentages, but also look at how many shots they take compared to the “league” average. This mimics how percentages are calculated in fantasy leagues. Basically, high percentages are nice, but it’s also important find players that take a lot shots and can still do it effectively (i.e. Dirk Nowitzki). So, onto the list of most effective free throw shooters for 2007.

Dirk, last year’s free throw champion and current NBA MVP finished as the second best free throw shooter in 2007, with an EFT% of 95.7. But the best free throw shooter, as well as your 2007 fantasy MVP and on-again-off again trade demander, goes to Kobe Bryant at a cool 96%. While he “only” shot 86% from the line, he attempted 10 free throws a game which gave him plenty of quantity over Dirk’s quality.

If you’re wondering who the worst free throw shooter is… Surprise! The award goes to Shaq, who will likely be the worst free throw shooter in the league until he hangs it up to pursue his dream of restoring law and order to southern Florida. Shaq shot 42% from the line, averaging 7.4 attempts a game, for an EFT% of 25%. Twenty. Five. Percent. For some perspective, Sam Cassell is 25% handsome. Tim Duncan is 25% interesting. The Grizzlies had a 25% chance to win the lottery. A-Rod is 25% clutch. Pirates of the Caribbean 3 is 25% good. I was 25% cool in high school… I could go on.

As far as other bad free throw shooters go - way, way back in Shaq’s rear view mirror are Dwight Howard (47%), Eddy Curry (51%), and Ben Wallace (52%). All bad, but not fantasy team ruining bad.

Alright, enough of that wussy charity stripe stuff, big men have the spotlight when looking at effective field goal percentage: For 2007:

Free throws aren’t in his vocabulary - like much of the English language - but Shaq is still the man from four feet and in. His EFG% of 57.8 paced the league in 2007. Dwight Howard shot a gaudy looking 60% from the field, but he only averaged 10.7 shots a game, so his EFG% clocked in slightly behind Shaq at 57.6.

And the worst shooter? Adam Morrision and Rafer Alston both ended the year with a field goal percentage of 37.6, but Alston averaged 12.4 shots a game to Morrison’s 12.1, so Alston slightly edges out the rookie for the league’s worst shooter, finishing with an EFG% of 38.4. Watch out for Morrison next year, though. He’s on a quest that even Antoine Walker can’t stop.

…was Bill Simmons jumping the shark with his latest column about the misfortunes of the Boston Celtics, Welcome to the next decade of discontent. Look, I am Celtics fan and I’m done with the “woe is us” shit coming from fans after the Celtics didn’t get one of the top 2 picks in the draft. First, the Celtics didn’t even deserve a top pick in this draft. Either they legitimately tanked over the last half of the season or Doc Rivers was shooting heroin before, during, and after games. The Celtics were probably a playoff team if everyone had stayed healthy, or if you know, they actually tried to win games.

Second, I know Oden and Durant are special players, and absolutely hell yes I would have loved to watch them every other night over the next decade, but you don’t win championships by having the top pick in the draft (just ask the Knicks and Patrick Ewing). Duncan alone would have not brought the Celtics any titles. You actually have to have a front office that knows what the hell their doing, that can build a team that complements each other, and Danny Ainge and company have consistently shown that they cannot do that. Hey guys, let’s start by not trading future rookies of the year for gun toting, undersized, under skilled point guards. Why not look at Utah and see that it is possible to build a good playoff team without having the number one pick in the draft. Why not try scouting, drafting, and signing free agents well? Maybe that’s a little tough for you, but you’ve wasted Paul Pierce’s prime on a 10-year rebuilding effort. Fortunately for Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, they don’t have to worry about their talent being wasted by a front office that doesn’t know how to build a basketball team, now or in the future. They’re the lucky ones. I don’t even like Paul Pierce and I feel bad for him.

The Sporting News recently decided it wasn’t a complete waste of time to rewrite Celtics’ history from the point of view as if they had drafted Tim Duncan in 97. It’s total garbage. So, the article goes, they get Duncan. But hey look! They also drafted Tracy McGrady! And somehow they sign Steve Nash too! I don’t know in what galaxy the Celtics were smart enough to pull all that shit off, but I think even the biggest Celtics fan can agree that wasn’t happening with the current front office situation.

Tim Duncan thanks god he’s not a Celtic

So while I wait for the Celtics to learn a thing or everything about building a basketball team, let me cut to the chase and show you the article you’ll be reading in a decade.

What if the Celtics Had Gotten the First Pick in the 2007 Draft?

Who needs Photoshop when you have Microsoft paint?

2007
Despite having only a 20 percent chance to get the first pick in the 2007 NBA draft, the Celtics miraculously win the lottery. Thank Celtics’ company man and good luck charm, Tommy Heinsohn, for bringing extra Tommy points to the lottery selection. It’s no surprise when the Celtics select Greg Oden with the first pick on draft day.

2007-2008
Greg Oden instantly meshes well with his new Celtics teammates and provides the stabilizing force on defense that the Celtics have lacked for years. With a lineup of Oden, Al Jefferson, Wally Szczerbiak, Paul Pierce, and Rajon Rondo, the Celtics finish with a record of 56-26 and beat out Toronto to win the Atlantic Division title and the 2nd seed in the Eastern Division playoffs behind Detroit. Oden wins the rookie of the year award, averaging 18 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks a game in 78 games. Gerald Green also wins the 6th man of the year award, averaging 17 points off the bench. The Celtics ultimately lose in the conference semifinals in seven games against the Cleveland Cavilers when Doc Rivers decides the Celtics best chance to beat LeBron James is to “go small” and sits Oden for long stretches during games while he plays Brian Scalabrine and Leon Powe against Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

2008-2009
Fresh off their disappointing loss in last season’s playoffs, the Celtics keep their starting five intact, making only minor changes to their bench. Again, they cruise to an Atlantic Division best 60-22, but tragically, Paul Pierce hurts his back on the last game of the season. The result is surgery that will keep him out through the playoffs. When asked why Pierce was playing in the 4th quarter of a meaningless game, Doc Rivers says “It was a no-brainer. We come out ready to play.” Pierce’s injury, coupled with Wally Szczerbiak’s horrific ankle explosion (those in sitting in section 13 will long to forget that horrible day in March), and Al Jefferson’s nagging foot injury, and the Celtics again lose to the Cavs in the conference semifinals. Oden, however, has a great year, averaging 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 blocks a game and makes the first all-star appearance of his career.

2009-2010
Danny Ainge decides that the Celtics need to get younger, especially with Paul Pierce, now 32, and Wally Szczerbiak, 32, coming off significant injuries the previous year. With Gerald Green ready to start for the Celtics, Ainge trades Pierce, Kendrick Perkins, the corpse of Wally Szczerbiak and his expiring contract, and a 2010 first round pick to Portland for Zach Randolph, Brandon Roy, and a ham sandwich. The Celtics also pick up Sebastian Telfair, literally, pick him up off the alley where he’s been sleeping, and immediately hand him the starting point guard job over Rondo, who hasn’t been enough of a “true point guard” for the Celtics the past couple of years. The Celtics get off to a great start at the beginning to the year, only to fade a little when Telfair stabs Randolph in the abdomen during a shoot-around in January. The Celtics finish the year 50-32, which in the new super powerful Eastern conference (thank the very underrated Isiah Thomas for brilliantly building the Knicks into a 21st century powerhouse – I can’t believe no one saw it coming), is only good for the 7th seed. Oden makes his second straight all-star game and finishes 3rd in the MVP voting. But, the Celtics lose in the first round, again to the Cleveland Cavs, when Lebron James - the reigning NBA MVP and newly crowned “richest man in the world” - blows by the double team of Tony Allen and Randolph for the game winning dunk in game 7 with only seconds to go.

2010
Doc Rivers gets a 4-year extension.

2011 on beyond
With Zach Randolph, Brandon Roy, and Al Jefferson signed to big contracts, the Celtics decide to let Gerald Green walk to the Las Vegas Kings. Their lack of financial flexibility also stops them from signing any high profile point guards. Instead, Ainge signs journeyman Dan Dickau, who, Ainge is confident, is posed to become the next Steve Nash. Instead, Dickau, Roy, Jefferson, Oden, and 38 year old Chris Webber (who the Celtics traded Delonte West, his bloated contract, and their 2012 first round draft pick to get in 2010) stumble their way through the first quarter of the year before Oden injures his hand in a freak shaving accident. With Oden forced to get surgery on his hand and out for the year, the Celtics embark on an all-time franchise worst 22-game losing streak. The Celtics finish with the worst record in the league (at 21-61) in what some call a dubious display of effort. Others call in tanking. Danny Ainge resigns after the season for personal issues and after an exhaustive search, the Celtics name Doc Rivers as their new Executive Director of Basketball Operations. Rivers promises the fans that he’ll continue on as the coach of the Celtics despite his new responsibilities. As the lottery approaches, the Celtics nervously wait, their eyes on a once in a generation North Carolina superstar named Marcus Jordan.

Rinse.

Repeat.

or: Is there a better birthday present for a semi-estranged but loyal Blazers fan than the first pick in the draft?

Not to mention the obvious trade scenario sending RJ to Portland for ZR. That’s easy money.

Said estranged (i.e., living in Vancouver) but loyal (i.e., watching 45 games this season on NBATV) Blazers fan does indeed have a birthday today. Does it get any better than that? I’d suggest taking the day off, but he’s been IMing me so much that I don’t think he’s been getting any work done even when he’s supposed to be working (don’t worry, I still love you).

In other loyal fan news, I’m a little worried that Patrick may have died the other night. He quite possibly perished along with the hopes and dreams of Celtics fans everywhere. Hey, buck up, you still got the 5th pick. Yi Jianlian may not be what you were thinking of as the Celtics held guys out in the 4th quarter of games this year, but at least you don’t have to worry about your team picking Spencer Hawes. YJL seems to have some killer instinct, and a little Jesse McCartney action can’t be all bad.

Following that up, Bulls (aka John Paxson): Please don’t take Spencer Hawes. I just don’t see that working out. Luckily, NBADraft.net has the Bulls taking Joakim Noah. I am cool with that.

I watched some clips of Tiago Splitter this morning, and I was actually impressed that someone made a nine-minute film of him just playing in a game. I appreciate that as opposed to the highlight reel clips that consist of only dunks and blocks. NBADraft.net has him all the way down at 21, but if Noah is gone, he’s probably got the best back-to-the-basket moves of the guys left, and that’s something that Bulls need to be looking for.

or: But that doesn’t mean that you should, too, LeBron, especially when you’re basically at the rim with some wireframed defender a step behind, and yeah, maybe he’s blocked some people before, but those were weak ass lay-ups and not power dunks of which you are more than capable of throwing down, especially when you have a step on said defender and the help defender is not going to be in a position to do anything but foul you

Brett Edwards said it first: LeBron James, You Need to Take That Shot

LeBron, you’re really the only person I still like in this playoffs (sorry former Illini Dawan Williams, I can’t like you cause you not only play for the Jazz, but also are teammates with Carlos Boozer). LeBron, I tried, but I can’t quit you. So LeBron, if TayTay is stuck to you like a blanket after a wet dream, then I will understand throwing the rock to Donnybrook. Or maybe if that was Damon Jones over there with his gold sunglasses on, then you throw the ball to him. Or if Robert Horry is on your team, you can pass to him too. But even that is questionable when you are in position to throw down a two-handed slam. You’ve made harder shots in last year’s playoffs, why stop now?

There’s a reason this blog is called GIVE ME THE ROCK, and I know you’ve said it before. You’re not getting lottery picks any time soon (that I know of), so keep saying it, and then play like you mean it. For me and for the 99% of the US that doesn’t live in Detroit, San Antonio, and/or Utah.

or: Yeah, pretty much I’m done with this season

but: If LeBron makes it to the Finals, I’ll probably be able to care a little.

And with that, it really is time to start preparing for fantasy hoops 2007-08. You may or may not know that we’ve already kicked it off, and created a category (don’t forget it’s pronounced Fantasy Draft Cheatsheet Ni-Sen-Shichi, so it rhymes).

And since CBS is nice enough to give us these wonderful articles, we’re nice enough to point them out to you.

For those who don’t like to read (or just don’t like clicking on extra links):

[Paul] Millsap averaged 12.4 ppg and 7.8 rpg in the eight games Boozer missed as a result [of a hairline fracture in his left leg], averaging 27.4 minutes in those contests. That got him believing he could be a force in this league.

You know Boozer’s going to get injured again at some point next season. It’s his punishment for being a traitor. (In case you couldn’t add it up, he and LeBron would probably be winning a championship this year if he were still in Cleveland) Although, the 74 games of nearly 21 and 12 makes him look much less cursed from a fantasy standpoint. It’s too bad he’ll probably end up like Karl Malone, ringless and rich, trying to get past the pain by sleeping in piles of money and women.

Millsap will be a sleeper heading into Fantasy drafts this fall, but his stock is much higher in keeper formats. With the Jazz looking to grow around their talented young trio of Boozer, Deron Williams and Mehmet Okur, Millsap might fit in nicely where Andrei Kirilenko could not this season at the small forward role. Another mediocre campaign for AK-47 and continued growth for Millsap next season, might make the former Fantasy superstar expendable and create the perfect scenario for the younger, cheaper option to step right in.

So there you have it. If you’re not one of the 2,803,326 people (aka, 0.93% of the US population) residing in Cleveland, Detroit, San Antone, or SLC, (4,854,752 (1.6%) if you count all of Utah), next Tuesday is already too late to start thinking about sleeper picks.

or: Save the Phoenix Suns, Save the Playoffs

“Every hero must learn his purpose. Then he’ll be tested and called to greatness.”

I must admit, I’m more than a little surprised that SLAM Sam didn’t pull out any Heroes references in this post about how the suspensions handed down from on high by the NBA Rulebook. But then, maybe it’s one of SLAM’s other authors who is talking about Heroes all the time. I don’t know. I have a hard time keeping them straight. (As a side note, I do applaud AOL for giving each author their own RSS feed, even if their commenting system is close to being fatally flawed)

I’m going to go out on a limb here and agree with everyone whose already said the Suns are the ones being punished when it really should be the Spurs receiving the harder sentence. I’d also like to wax poetic about how any team could just trot out their 12th man to take other players out. Even if players don’t leave the bench, if you foul someone hard enough, there’s a chance he won’t be back for the next game. But that’s all I’m going to say about that.

Because, as Sam says, now is the time for the Suns to step up and show that their are Heroes. They may be facing a predetermined destiny and a more powerful opponent, but they must realize they have the power to change that destiny and destroy that villian.

“If I’m too scared to use my powers, then I don’t deserve them. I have to try.”

Or to throw in another analogy, Steve Nash and Shawn Marion (or perchance Barbosa, since he’s smaller) need to step up like Frodo and Sam and cast the One Ring into Mount Doom. (I haven’t actually seen the 3rd one yet, so I hope I’m not spoiling it for anyone else who hasn’t seen it either)

I can’t recall the taste of food… nor the sound of water… nor the touch of grass. I’m… naked in the dark, with nothing, no veil… between me… and the wheel of fire! I can see him… with my waking eyes!

And finally: Nash should take charge like Master Chief with D’Antoni whispering in his ear like Cortana, and though he is just one against and army of almost incalculable power, we know that he is prepared to finish the fight.

- Mind telling me what you’re doing on that ship?
- Sir. Finishing this fight.

or: I know everyone out there loves Heroes, so don’t even trip

That’s a cool coat Jose Calderon has there.

It’s cool when Sylar uses his freezing ability to breath on people and freeze them.

To Jose, the bench feels like a prison cell.

I’d watch out if I were that cameraman. He might be looking to steal your special photojournalism ability. Or he might just need a new hat to conceal his face in shadows.