And with the First Pick…

Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball
Posted on: July 2nd, 2007

No, I’m not talking about the NBA draft, although Kevin Durant may have something to say about that next season. I’m writing about fantasy basketball drafts – specifically the 2006 one. Now that Kevin Garnett is on the downslope of his career, is there a consensus number 1 pick? Would you have benefited from having the 1st pick in your draft last year? How about this year?

The short answer is yes, no, and probably not. The long answer is that I looked back at some of the mock drafts done last year (which Nels had conveniently complied – thanks). The drafts included our own little slice of heaven, and also ones from Dropping Dimes, Fantasy Basketblog, Fantasy Sports Radar, and CBS Sportsline. I took the average draft position for each of the top 12 players and included their final rank at the end of this past season (rankings taken from the GMTR player rater and are based on a per game basis, hence Dwyane Wade as the top ranked player).

Lebron James was THE consensus number 1 pick and he rewarded all those who drafted him by finishing as the 12th ranked player on the year. Thank that 70% free throw percentage. Considering his horrible start, 12th isn’t all that bad. He was down in the high 20’s at least halfway through the season. Twelfth is disappointing, sure, but devastating? Nah. In addition to James, Chris Bosh and Chris Paul appear to be first round disappointments too.

While Dwyane Wade – at pick number 6 – was the top ranked player on a per game basis, Kobe Bryant – at 5 – was the fantasy MVP this season. To be honest, I probably wouldn’t have taken Kobe at 5 last draft. Then again, I hold an eternal, burning hatred for him that continually festers in the deepest recesses of my soul. So, it’s possible that I’m biased.

Other good picks: Garnett at 2, Marion at 4, Brand at 7 (and center eligible by the end of the year!), Arenas at 8, Nash at 10, and Ray Allen at 12. That’s 8 out of 12 picks finishing around or better than the spot they were picked (9 if you want to count Dirk). A better percentage than I would have expected.

The question still remains, would you take Lebron with the first pick in next year’s draft? If not, who? Kobe and Wade, possibly? Despite Lebron’s non-transcendent year, the potential to be regular-season great in addition to post-season great still exists. On the other hand (soul crushing hatred aside), the year that Kobe had is hard to overlook. Maybe I’ll take therapist for 200, Alex. No, no I won’t.

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