Give Me The Rock

UPDATE: KG TO THE CELTICS! KG TO THE CELTICS! As is common knowledge by now, Kevin Garnett has been traded from the Wolves for Al Jefferson and the kitchen sink. For a complete breakdown of the KG to the Celtics trade, check out the post - You Do Not Tell Danny Ainge What to Do: Kevin Garnett to Boston. The basic gist of the post: The big three will be just fine playing together. The bench is so weak that they will keep their stats at the same level as in previous years. Rajon Rondo is the big winner of the trade because he’ll likely become the Celtics’ starting point guard this season. Kendrick Perkins will also start at center and he has been training hard to lose weight and work on his game, but he’ll be a solid role player rather than contribute to the traditional fantasy categories. The rest of the team isn’t worth thinking about for fantasy purposes.

The Boston Celtics’ fantasy performance last season closely resembled that of the actual Boston Celtics. It sucked with all the vigorousness of my Flowbee Haircutting System. With the exception of Al Jefferson, who became a double-double waiting to happen, every Celtic either underperformed, suffered some horrible injury, or both. Paul Pierce played in 47 games, Wally Szczerbiak 32, Tony Allen 33 (it was a nice dunk though). Even Jefferson missed 13 games with some knee issues at the beginning and end of the season.

Copyright 2007 NBAE (Photo by Terrence Vaccaro/NBAE via Getty Images)

But Danny Ainge came to the rescue. With time running out on the bill of goods commonly referred to as Paul Pierce, and more importantly his own job, Ainge came up with a brilliant plan to turn around the Celtics.

Plan A: Tank the season to get the first pick in the 2007 draft. Draft franchise center Greg Oden.

And if for some reason Plan A didn’t work, there was always Plan B.

Plan B: Tank the season to get the second pick in the 2007 draft. Draft franchise forward Kevin Durant.

When Plan A and B fell through, Ainge quickly moved to…

Plan C: Tank the season. Get the fifth pick in the draft. Trade it and young players for Kevin Garnett.

What? Garnett doesn’t like Boston? Ok.

Plan D: Tank the season. Get the fifth pick in the draft. Trade it and young players in a three-way deal for Shawn Marion.

No? Shit. Onto…

Plan E: Tank the season. Get the fifth pick in the draft. Trade it and other players for Ray Allen.

Now that’s a first pitch

I just love it when a plan comes together. Ray Allen and his two surgically repaired ankles come to Boston - a team desperately in need of a point guard and another big man - to do pretty much the same thing that Paul Pierce does. To his credit, Ray Allen seems to be taking this trade like a man, saying all the right things, and hiding his disappointment for nights when he can cry himself to sleep at night. From the Boston Herald:

Ray Allen says he doesn’t want to do anything to diminish Paul Pierce’s star in Boston. He feels he is just the kind of player who can help elevate it.

“The players in this league -and Paul is one of those guys - who have the ability to score in bunches, you have to ride that and let that go,” said the 31-year-old Allen, who proclaimed his ankles will be perfect when training camp rolls around. “A lot of times you marvel at (Pierce) and his ability. That’s my ability to let him be who he is and me be who I am alongside him.”

From a fantasy perspective, only three of the Celtics starting spots are set in stone right now: Allen at the 2, Pierce at the 3, and Jefferson at 4/5. While Allen is currently talking the good talk about deferring to Pierce, I have to agree with my BFF, Matt Buser: there is plenty of offense to go around on this team for Pierce, Allen, and Jefferson.

For worse or worse, this is still Paul Pierce’s team (he finished the year ranked at 27 on the rater and at 42 with TO’s included). Pierce missed a career high 35 games last season, but the Celtics’ horrible year likely had a lot to do with that, as he sat out the last month of the season. Allen’s arrival pushes Pierce back to the 3, where he has better stats over his career, and will likely take some pressure off Pierce from having to create offense all by himself. While I’m impressed with his ability to dribble around the court while being double teamed and then launching a turnaround jumper from 20 feet, there are probably easier ways for a team to score. I expect a bounce back year of sorts from Pierce. He’ll be worth a second round pick and if you can somehow get him in the third round, it’ll be a steal.

Ray Allen (7, 7) already has plenty of experience sharing the ball with an all-star in Rashard Lewis. Allen should have no problem doing the same with Pierce. Expect him to maintain his scoring average, percentages, and all those threes. If he stays healthy, he should end up a more valuable fantasy player than Pierce. Allen will be a solid second round pick.

The Al Jefferson (57, 50) that many a fantasy owner has been waiting for finally busted out last year. In his starts, he averaged 17 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks a game. Now I’m as big of a Jefferson fan as you’ll find (I’ve had him on my teams since his rookie season), but there are a couple of things that bother me. First, his breakout season happened on a truly horrendous team, with Pierce playing at 75% and the likes of Leon Powe, Allan Ray, Ryan Gomes, and Brian Scalabrine getting significant minutes. Second, Jefferson is a completely unselfish - sometimes to the point of being unaggressive – player on offense, so the addition of Allen could hurt his offensive production (compared to someone like Pierce). There’s the chance he simply won’t take enough initiative behind the two vets. Third, Jefferson has battled nagging injuries each of the three years he’s been in the league, playing 71, 59, and 69 games, respectively. Draft him knowing he’s going to miss a little time. All that adds up to a player who I think – and it hurts me to say this - will be a little overrated come draft day.

If the season started now, Rajon Rondo (160, 181) would be the starting point guard for the Celtics. If that actually happens, mark him down on your sleeper list in very big letters. Prorating his 2006 stats over 35 minutes would put Rondo at 9.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 2.4 steals a game. And that’s not figuring in any improvement. So what if he can’t shoot, those are still solid numbers from a number 2 point guard.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Word on the street is that Sebastian Telfair may be back for an encore performance this year. It’s not that Telfair is better than Rondo (cause he’s not), it’s because management spent a lot for Telfair and they’re not ready call it a sunk cost. Don’t be surprised if Doc Rivers ends up with some kind of point guard platoon, destroying any kind of value Rondo might have this year.

Another starter by default at the moment is Kendrick Perkins (216, 249). With all due respect to Perkisabeast, Perk is certainly not a fantasy beast. Four and a half points and 5 rebounds aren’t going to cut it.

Tony Allen (91,109) should be fully back from his injury by training camp. He’s not draft worthy, but if Allen or Pierce goes down, he’ll be a nice all-around fill-in off the wavers. Gerald Green (198, 228) needs to learn how to play defense before Rivers will give him any significant minutes. His occasional point explosions will be a siren song to anyone listening, though. Ryan Gomes (147, 139) is fodder in deep leagues, but fantasy dreams don’t live and die on Ryan Gomes. Brian Scalabrine… forget it.

GMTR Draft Prognostication

Ray Allen: 2nd Round
Paul Pierce: 2nd/3rd
Al Jefferson: 6th
Rajon Rondo (if a starter): 12th