Give Me The Rock

The Hawks missed the playoffs for the eighth straight season, but reached 30 wins for the first time since the 2002-03 season.
-Yahoo Sports

I could have saved myself a lot of time on this preview by simply pointing you in the direction of the 2006 GMTR Hawks preview with the instructions to substitute the name Al Horford for Shelden Williams. That’s pretty much all you need to know about the fantasy 2007 Atlanta Hawks.

Instead, I’m going to go the extra mile for my good friend and Atlanta “resident” Jimmy. Jimmy was a homeless man who once led me through downtown Atlanta one night around 12 in the am. I won’t go into details about how I got there, just know that I learned my lesson. Jimmy was kind of hard to understand, but I did hear him say that he had been in jail before. Interestingly, he brought up the jail thing in the larger context of trying to convince me that he was a good guy. “I’ve been in jail” and “I’m a good guy” aren’t phrases that usually go together, at least at my family dinner conversations, so I’m eternally grateful to Jimmy for not killing me in front of the Majestic Diner.

But the point is that Jimmy got me where I needed to go without raping me in an alley, which is more than can be said about the Hawk’s GM, Billy Knight. Ok, that’s a little harsh. The Philips Arena has much better lighting than an alley.

What the Hawks lack in victories, they more than make up for in point guards and forwards. Billy Knight must be trying to get back at his detractors by currently carrying five point guards on his roster. Acie Law, the second of the Hawks’ first round picks, is one of those point guards. Law, who has drawn comparisons to Chauncey Billups or Sam Cassell is an unselfish player who is a good ball handler with leadership abilities. I’m no expert on the Hawks, so I’ll let Sekou Smith elaborate more on the point guard situation in his blog. According to Smith, it looks like Law will have some time to develop as the team’s second or third point guard behind Speedy Claxton (201, 245) and perhaps Tyronn Lue (175, 190) or Anthony Johnson (273, 280), if one or both doesn’t get traded.

Regardless of how the Hawks point guard clusterf**k plays out, the most likely outcome is some kind of 20/20/8 situation that destroys everyone’s fantasy value, at least until someone (cough:Claxton:cough) gets hurt. I wouldn’t rush to draft any Hawks point guard, although it might be a good idea to keep a lazy eye on Acie Law to see if his playing time increases as the season progresses or maybe, just maybe, he wins the job outright.

It’s tough to mention Al Horford’s name without mentioning that he’s “NBA ready” so, just so you know, he’s NBA ready, which basically means that he’s ready to play in the NBA, unlike say, Kevin Durant, whose popsicle stick body got chewed up into little, wet splinter sized pieces during summer league games. From what I can gleam off the Internet, Horford’s drawn comparisons anywhere from a Shelden Williams clone to a “young Derrick Coleman without the baggage,” which, my friends, is no Derrick Coleman. Let me go out on a limb and say, even by the end of the year, it will be apparent that Horford is not the third best player from this draft. Expect decent defense from Horford right out of the gate and, even though he’s NBA ready, his offense will need a little time to develop.

Damn, I wish that Josh Smith (25 on the rater last season, 41 with turnovers) could shoot, because he can just about do everything else. His 69% free throw and 44% field goal percentages (25% on threes) are not pretty to look at, but you put up with that for 16 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 3 blocks a game. His percentages haven’t improved any since he came into the league and he should actually lay off the threes a little as it’s a pretty weak part of his game. But overall, he’s a solid 3rd rounder and it’s always nice to have someone on your team who will supply you with sweet highlights on a daily basis.

The end of last year was a Carl Lewis’ national anthem-level disaster for head-to-head leagues. Joe Johnson (34, 44) was one of those guys who made it so bad. Johnson had a solid year until he went down with a calf injury during the last month of the season. He was ready to return by the end of the season, but was held out cause the Hawks sucked. That’s a good sign… that Johnson was healthy, not that the Hawks suck. It was also the first game he missed in five years, so there’s no reason why Johnson shouldn’t go by the fourth round, at least.

It’s so much easier to make decisions with your gut than to sit back and look at the facts. The Marvin Williams (134, 161) I conjure up off the top of my head was the guy I drafted, promptly broke his hand and missed the first month of the season, came back to shoot like a blind man from the floor, and put up some horrible stat lines for about a month before I dropped him. I was ready to write Williams off again this year, but his game log shows that he actually had a pretty decent end to the season (14.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 85% from the line in his last 22 games). Ok, it’s not gangbusters, but its way better than the image I have of him in my head. I don’t see him blowing up anytime soon, but he should get plenty of minutes ahead of…

After three years of no improvement, Josh Childress (65, 47) had a smallish breakout before also going down at the end of the year. I’d be a little more excited about his prospects this year except that Josh Smith and Marvin Williams appear to be the frontrunners for the starting forward spots on this team. It took Childress 37 minutes a game to average his 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists last season (he’s the anti Eddie House). Unless someone gets hurt, he’ll probably be lucky to average 30 minutes on this team. The result will probably be a return to his pre-2007 numbers and he’ll be worth a nice 9th to 10th round pick.

I greatly enjoy reading basketbawful’s word of the day. I’d love to see “Zaza” become the word of the day for a backup fantasy center. As in Zaza Pachulia (102, 130). It’s fun to say. It rolls off the tongue. 12 points, 7 rebounds, half a block, decent percentages. Oh yeah, that’s a Zaza.

Shelden Williams (221, 239). Not. A. Good. Draft. Pick. Even the Shelden Williams fan site stopped posting after his 9th game. Salim Stoudamire (287, 277) is like the 6th guard on the depth chart. Slava Medvedenko (410, 402) has a name that’s fun to say.

The Hawks get a lot of crap for being historically inept at just about everything, however, this team appears to be headed in the right direction. They have a lot of young talent and (amazingly) this talent seems to fit into one larger plan. The Hawks’ depth will hurt the fantasy performance of some guys, like Horford and Childress, but expect to see some roster movement in the next few months, especially at the point guard position. Maybe this is a team worth keeping an eye on after all.

GMTR Draft Prognostication

Josh Smith: 3rd Round
Joe Johnson: 3rd/4th
Marvin Williams: 9th
All Zazas: 10th+
Acie Law/Speedy Claxton/Tyronn Lue/Anthony Johnson: To be announced