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You Do Not Tell Danny Ainge What to Do: Kevin Garnett to Boston

Author: Patrick, Boston Celtics, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Draft Cheatsheet 2007, NBA Basketball, Trades July 31st, 2007

The on again off again love affair between the Boston Celtics and Kevin Garnett is suddenly red hot again. According to CelticsBlog.com – the site that actually scooped the Garnett to Boston news before any other media outlet – the Celtics and Timberwolves have finalized their deal that will send Kevin Garnett to the Celtics in exchange for Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff, two future first-round picks, a six-pack of multi-colored sweaters, and cash considerations to the Timberwolves.

The Celtics can use a little of THIS!
Kevin Garnett

Hold on. Hold on. Didn’t anyone realize that I’ve already done the Boston Celtics preview for 2007? Isn’t this going to change everything? Well, yes (in the Celtics are back to being a force in the Eastern Conference kind of way) and not really (in a how will this change my fantasy draft this year kind of way). Two intelligent people who happen to be smarter than me have already given their fantasy opinions on this trade*. First, Philthy on Fantapedia.net:

Kevin Garnett’s stock doesn’t move at all with this. In fact, while his points average might drop a bit, his FG%, rebounds and assists all should increase.

And Dennis from Dropping Dimes

When all is said and done, the Celtics should have a trio of 20-point scorers and fantasy owners should remain happy because of the other categories that each player regularly contributes to, such as Garnett with boards, and Allen and Pierce with threes. Don’t expect too much to change with each player from seasons past except for, on average, a nominal drop in points.

I’ll be honest, it was my intention to poke a hole in the “this trade is great for everyone involved” line. But after looking at the details… the trade is great for everyone involved.

My first fear was that Pierce, Allen, and Garnett wouldn’t play as many minutes as last season. But when you trade 5 players away for 1, your bench is going to be weak. Inept. Disastrous. Historically Bad.

Rondo and Perkins round out the starting 5 (I think Rondo can fill the starting PG job more than adequately – unlike most – and Matt “BFF” Buser has good things to say about Perk). But the bench? Tony Allen, Brian Scalabrine, and what, Big Baby Davis are coming off the bench? Good god that’s horrible. The Celtics can’t really trade for depth because they don’t have anything left to trade. Expect the big three to play as many minutes, if not more, this season.

My second fear was that the big three would likely take time off at the end of the year if the Celtics were cruising to a division title. They’re all “NBA old” at this point in their careers and could use rest from an 82 game season for the playoffs. And the East is weak right? Well, the Eastern Division isn’t quite as weak as it used to be. Toronto is a young and talented team. The Nets still have their core intact. The Knicks… well, they have Zack Randolph and Eddy Curry. This division isn’t going to be a cakewalk, especially for a team with no bench. Expect Pierce, Allen, and Garnett to play all year as Boston fights for a division title.

As for the actual team dynamics, with a slight increase in minutes, the big three should all come close to maintaining their respective averages. Believe it or not, forced to choose, I actually think Paul Pierce is the one who gets hurt the most by this trade. Garnett is going to block shots, rebound, and score inside. There is no one on the Celtics ready to take those stats away from him. And on this team, Ray Allen gets to focus on the things he does well: shoot threes and score points with great percentages. But Pierce. He goes from being “THE MAN” to “one of the big three.” His scoring, rebounds, and defense stats should remain steady, but I think his threes and assists will take a little bit of a hit as he defers more to his teammates. It won’t be a big decrease, just enough to keep Pierce solidly in the second round of your draft.

The real big winners of this trade are Rondo, Perkins, Tony Allen, Brian Scalabrine, Big Baby Davis, and whoever the hell else comes off the bench for the Celtics. Someone’s got to play for this team and unless they make another trade, these are the guys. My predictions:

Rondo: STRONG BUY
Tony Allen: BUY
Kendrick Perkins: WATCH
Big Baby Davis: WATCH
Brian Scalabrine: UGH, I can’t do it. SELL

Coming up soon, a more detailed look on how this trade affects the Timberwolves and their new stud building block, Al Jefferson.

* You may have also given your fantasy-related opinion on the trade and it’s likely that you’re smarter than me, in which case, I just haven’t seen your work. If so, leave a link and feel welcome to disagree with me vehemently.

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What Are People Talking About?

  • Anonymous
    I really don't like this trade. Jefferson could've posted really good numbers this year. While not maybe as much as KG would, but wouldn't you rather have a guy who has 18 pts, 11 Rebs, 1.5 blocks shooting around 50% PLUS Gerald Green with two picks in the future and Gomes off the bench than KG? I sincerely think that Minnesota got the better end of this deal. They will end up in the bottom five of the league. Look at it this way, a team with Foye running the point( we can all agree that he will turn out well) Green, who is compared to tmac though i doubt he gets to that level, Brewer locking down players, Jefferson on the block, and a First round pick (their own form the Ricky Davis trade) in a draft that features Eric Gordon, Roy hibbert, OJ Mayo, and other great talent.
  • I can certainly understand your concern. In five years, the Celtics are going to be an absolute mess. And a Pierce/Allen/Garnett trio with no bench doesn't sound like it's going to win a title, especially against whatever juggernaut comes out of the west. So what’s the point?

    What I like about this trade is that for the first time in Ainge’s tenure, it actually seems like he has a plan that fits together, however desperate it may seem. KG is a better player than Jefferson and he certainly fits better with Pierce and Allen right now. After watching Green for a couple years, I‘m not really sold on him, but I’m no scout, so who knows what will happen. Gomes and Telfair are role players at best. The loss of draft picks will hurt, especially because the Celtics could really use some depth, but I didn’t see them going into the lottery even pre-KG, so they wouldn’t have gotten an OJ Mayo or anything.

    I truly believe that Jefferson is going to be a star in the league and it will hurt to see him play for another team during the next decade, but pairing Pierce with Jefferson doesn’t do much good for either player or the team. The Celtics needed to decide whether they wanted to try to win now or win in five years, and I’m just happy they choose one of the above for the first time since Ainge became the GM. You are right though, I do like the core of young players in Minnesota and I think in a few years they will be a force to be reckoned with. We’ll see if Kevin Mchale is around to enjoy it.
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