Give Me The Rock

Wow. NBA.com is really going for it this season. Not only did they redesign the whole thing (good move, cause it sucked!) but they’ve opened the doors in August! Last day of August, sure… but August!

You can literally go there and sign up right now. We’ll ignore the minor typo on the home page since I’ve made at least one on this blog.

Yahoo is still waiting to open their registration. ESPN’s link to Fantasy Basketball just refreshes the page. CNNSI will notify you when Fantasy Basketball 2007 launches.

Also, free keeper leagues. Free live scoring. Email drafts. Co-owner option. Six waiver types, including auction.

You can make leagues that only have players from one Conference in them! Not that I’d ever really actually want to do that… but the option is there.

Yeah, I realize this sounds like an ad for UFC… I’m just amazed right now. I’m pretty much out of words to describe… well… this… To sum up, I’d say: unprecedented.

Two things utterly fascinate me about the Knicks. First, what is it like to be a Knicks fan right now? Anyone out there willing to come clean? Are you excited about this team? Are you excited about Zach Randolph? Do you hate Isiah Thomas? Are you beaten down to the point of resignation?

Second, it’s commonly said that Isiah Thomas runs the Knicks like a fantasy team, yet the Knicks’ roster looks like a fantasy graveyard. Listed below is where the Knicks roster currently stands (last season’s rank in parenthesis, followed by the ranking when turnovers are included). You have to admit, this would be one of the worst fantasy teams ever.

Zach Randolph (43, 65)
David Lee (62, 46)
Jamal Crawford (74, 113)
Stephon Marbury (76, 95)
Quentin Richardson (110, 87)
Eddy Curry (151, 298)
Nate Robinson (177, 163)
Renaldo Balkman (214, 192)
Fred Jones (224, 232)
Jared Jeffries (247, 248)
Mardy Collins (327, 364)
Malik Rose (329, 359)
Kelvin Cato (384, 366)
Jerome James (386, 399)
Randolph Morris (447, 444)
Wilson Chandler (R)
Demetris Nichols (R)

Believe it or not, David Lee was the Knicks’ top fantasy player last year, averaging 11 points and 10 rebounds (with great FG and FT percentages) in just 29 minutes a game. Yes, the Knicks best fantasy player played less than 30 minutes a game. Oh, and he came off the bench about 75% percent of the time. David Lee did such a great job in limited time for the Knicks that Isiah Thomas…

a) Signed Lee to a $100 million contract?

b) Named Lee as the starting PF for next year’s team?

c) Invited Lee up to his office and sexually harassed him?

d) Traded for Zach Randolph?

If you said (d) (or possibly c) you are correct. After a stellar second season (abet one where he only played in 58 games), Lee will again be relegated to the bench while backing up Randolph. It’s a fools’ errand to try to predict what Thomas will do with this mess of a rotation, but… Lee, who is 6-9, is really not cut out to play center, and while he can play small forward depending on the matchup, the Knicks already have four or five small forwards. So, Lee will pretty much be stuck backing up Randolph, who averaged close to 36 minutes a game last season. Even if Randolph only averages 30 minutes a game, Lee would be struggling to see 20. As sad as it is, unless something drastic happens with this lineup (injuries or nuclear annihilation) I don’t see David Lee as a viable fantasy option.

Randolph on the other hand, should continue to do what he does well - score and rebound. His points per game might see a slight dip as he’ll be competing for shots with Marbury, Curry, Jamal Crawford, and whoever else is out on the floor at any given time. But he’ll have plenty of rebounding opportunities playing alongside…

Eddy Curry. I’m certainly happy that Curry, despite his medical problems, was able to have a solid season for the Knicks, averaging 19.5 points on 58% shooting and 7 rebounds in 35 minutes a game. I’m surprised he ended up so low on the player rater at 151, but it’s likely due to the fact that Curry contributes nothing else in the other categories. 0.8 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.5 blocks, 62 percent from the line is not going to cut it as a starting fantasy center. Now that Randolph is with the Knicks, there’s also a chance that Curry could regress back to his pre-2007 rebounding numbers. Do you want a center who averages 5 rebounds a game? I’d avoid Curry.

Stephon Marbury (the term “Starbury” now only refers his interviewing abilities) had a truly horrific start to the season. He was wildly inconsistent from game to game. Marbury picked things up towards the end of the year (he had a nice stretch from February to the beginning of April), but still had his worst season since he entered the league, finishing with a career low in assists (5.5) and his worst shooting percentage since 1999. KnickerBlogger says there are three issues with Marbury’s performance last season: 1) while still relative young (30) he’s been in the NBA since he was 19 and logged crazy minutes over his career, 2) his role as a point guard was adversely affected by another “me first” guard in Steve Francis, and 3) he was not suited for the offensive scheme that Isiah Thomas implemented.

While the Franchise is gone, Marbury’s age and the Knicks offense remain issues. We’ve entered a new era for Marbury, one where he is better suited to be a second or third option – an efficient scorer and a guy who can set up his teammates. Expect a slight bump in his assists this season, but his scoring stats have likely reached a plateau. This may be the year we see Marbury as a PG2, and you know, we just might all be happier that way.

The rest of the lineup? You got me. Mardy Collins ended the season as the starting shooting guard and really had a nice stretch of games in April, but Jamal Crawford was injured at the time. Crawford will probably end up starting at the 2 to begin the season. He brings some decent scoring and some threes with him with a good free throw percentage and a crappy field goal percentage. He also averaged 37 minutes a game last year - an indication that Thomas just loves him for some reason. Crawford is also an injury risk, so make sure you have a viable backup option if you happen to have Crawford on your team.

Collins may backup Crawford, but it’s more likely that Quentin Richardson or Nate Robinson will. Richardson only played in 49 games last season and he seems better suited to play limited minutes off the bench. Robinson was MVP of the summer league, but he appears to have hit a ceiling on the Knicks. Again, courtesy of KnickerBlogger:

Robinson played 21.4 min/g under Larry Brown, and 21.2 min/g under Isiah Thomas. It seems that two coaches, who had very different views & philosophies, saw Robinson in the same light. If Nate wants to shed his role as spark off the bench, he’ll need to shed his image as a circus act crammed into a basketball uniform.

At small forward, the Knicks have a man they pay a lot of money for, Jared Jeffries, and a man they don’t pay a lot of money for, Renaldo Balkman. Care to take a guess on which one will start? Neither was a useful fantasy guy last season, although Balkman had a decent run last spring (9 points, 7 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game from March 3rd to April 7th). Balkman also has much more upside than Jeffries, who lacks much of an offensive game and whose defense is far overrated (the Knicks were 3 points worse on defense when Jeffries was on the court according to 82games). Balkman may not be draft worthy, but keep an eye on his minutes. If he becomes the starter, pick him up.

Finally, the Knicks have a super-sleeper in Demetris Nichols. They wanted him to play the season in Italy, but he refused, so he comes to the Knicks as a big (6-8) shooter off the bench. He won’t get much playing time on this crowded roster, but the Knicks have a lot of players with a propensity to get hurt (Crawford, Richardson, Jeffries), so he’s at least one reason to keep an eye on the Knicks this season.

GMTR Draft Position (10 team league)
Zach Randolph - 5th
Stephon Marbury – 8th
Jamal Crawford – 9th
David Lee – 11+ (sadly)
Eddy Curry – 13+ (big leagues only)
Renaldo Balkman – watch

Has anyone already come up with the nickname “Oak Tree” for Emeka Okafor? If not, please drop a foot note to this page any time you use that one in the future.

Last year’s rankings of this year’s players:
26 - Gerald Wallace
32 - Emeka Okafor
56 - Jason Richardson
101 - Matt Carroll
103 - Raymond Felton
120 - Derek Anderson
122 - Sean May
152 - Walter Herrmann
316 - Adam Morrison
344 - Primoz Brezec
355 - Jeff McInnis
421 - Ryan Hollins
434 - Othella Harrington
NR - Jermareo Davidson
NR - Jared Dudley

Wow. I’m really not all that interested here. And I’ve seriously been thinking about this for a while now.

So… with J-Rich joining the club, I’d say Oak Tree has probably reached a plateau in scoring. He shot 53% last season and only got to 14 points. If he could start making a few more free throws, maybe there’d be something there, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.

Raymond Felton, on the other hand, has probably not reached his potential in scoring. He shot only 38% last season and got to 14 points on that. One would think that with Jason Richardson on the team, he would maintain his assist numbers and also get more open looks. And the turnovers can’t get much higher, really. So, I’d put Felton at right about 75. He’s kind of an Andre Miller type player, but you trade a rebound a game for a three a game (could be the reason for that shooting percentage).

J-Rich will be J-Rich. I don’t see his game changing much with the move across the country. He’s going to get his and end up in the 50s somewhere.

Since the Bobcats waived Brevin Knight (anyone know why they did that?), Yahoo has Matt Carroll listed as the backup PG. I’m not really sure what the Bobcats rotation was like last season, but Carroll had 26 minutes a game, presumably at the SG and SF positions. He was efficient enough to end up at 101 on the Player Rater, but with Jason Richardson filling in that SG position, I don’t see much room for Carroll to increase his minutes. He might be able to crack the top 100, but that’s about it.

Then there’s Gerald Wallace. I was a GDub believer when I saw him flying through Sacramento, but his severely limited PT made me lose faith. I’m just waiting for Crash to crash now… It’s been 3 seasons of stellar fantasy play now, and a career high 72 games last season… but I still wouldn’t be able to bring myself to draft him. I just feel he is still overrated, even though logic - and the Player Rater - say otherwise. Splitting balls with Jason Richardson may hurt his overall scoring, but he will still be drafted in the 3rd round, and there’s nothing you or anyone else can do about it.

Finally, Walter Herrmann. What he did at the end of the season can’t be readily discounted. But it can be price declined. If you look at the game log, you’ve got Miami without Wade twice, Injured Washington twice, The Milwaukee Tanks twice, Indiana and The Only Quality Opponent: Chicago. He’s a definite sleepr.* But I’m not willing to put him much higher than about 90. At best, I see him playing like Al Harrington, which puts him squarely at 100.

10/12 Team Draft Positions:
Gerald Wallace - 3rd round or 4th round / 3rd round
Emeka Okafor - 4th round /3rd or 4th round
Jason Richardson - 5th round / 4th round
Raymond Felton - 7th round / 6th round
Matt Carroll - 10th round / 8th or 9th round
Walter Herrmann - 11th round / 10th round (remember, he’s a sleeper, so we’re trying to draft him lower than he could actually end up)
Sean May - 12th or 13th round / 10th round

* Sleepr is the Web 2.0 version of a sleeper

On the first of the month, Jeff Wong posted the results of a fantasy league survey he created to see what the members of HoopsAddict.com league from last season. I’m quoted in there, further establishing my fantasy expert street cred. I call it street cred cause the HoopsAddict.com header image is some graffiti style action.

NBA.com is focusing on their core competency and pounding out 14 fantasy draft cheatsheets with 4 more to come. There’s also an opportunity for you to become the NBA.com Fantasy Fan Blogger. Or you could just buy a cheap ass hosting plan, a semi-clever domain name, and start raking in the dough without the “help” of an editor.

I kid, I kid. I’m sure it’s a fantastic opportunity for someone who actually wants to be a writer. Or loves fantasy basketball more than I do. Like this guy who thinks that you shouldn’t take Gilbert Arenas with the first pick. He does argue his point well, though. And I didn’t. So, um, take that, Editor-wanter-man.

I thought I had more than that to clear out of my Starred Items… but I guess not. Dang. Guess I have to go back to the fantasy team previews, then, eh? I guess so…

How about a bunch of fantasy talk about players who don’t have any fantasy relevance? I didn’t anticipate the column going in this direction, but it’s August and Team USA doesn’t play in any fantasy leagues as far as I know, so the following qualifies as big news this month.

• After all that attention, Reggie Miller is not making a comeback for the Celtics. Miller told the Indianapolis Star, “Physically, I know I could have done it, but mentally, when you do something like this, you’ve either got to be all in or all out. And I’ve decided I’m all out.” Personally, I think Reggie made the right decision. Seeing a 42-year old Miller playing garbage time for the Celtics would be on the same level as watching a 40-year old Michael Jordan hobble around the court for the Wizards.
• So Reggie Miller isn’t walking through that door, but James Posey is on his way to the Celtics, which is the final stake in the heart of my obsolete Celtics fantasy preview (it will be updated). Fantasy wise, it’s tough to get excited about Posey. He’s probably going to backup both Pierce and Garnett, but I don’t see him getting much more than 20 minutes a game off the bench to shoot some threes and play some D.
• The Orlando Magic sign Adonal Foyle after the Warriors bought out the remainder of his contract. Foyle arrives to presumably backup Dwight Howard. He certainly fits the Orlando style of play more than that of Golden State, although 15 minute a game defensive centers typically don’t make good fantasy plays. Remember when people would actually draft Adonal Foyle in fantasy leagues? Ah, simpler times. We listened to music on something called Compact Disks, Saddam Hussein was one of the world’s most devious tyrants, and the words “Paris Hilton” actually referred to a hotel in France.
• On Monday, the Rockets’ Rafer Alston was arrested on felony assault charges for stabbing a guy IN THE NECK at a “Manhattan nightspot.” Well, it’s not dog flighting, but it is Altson’s second arrest this summer. The Rockets have signed Mike James and Stevie Franchise (that’s also news to me) to compete with Alston for the starting point guard spot. It’s been a bad summer for Alston and - with those two signings - it appears that the fall won’t be getting any better.
• Finally, I couldn’t say enough good things about Ballhype, the Digg of all things sports. Not only is it a great place to browse the online world of sports related media, but yours truly has been featured in the Commenter’s Corner on Ballhype for a witty comment I made about Bruce Bowen and guys’ balls. Stay Classy San Diego.

Crashing the Party: Carnival of the NBA #48 is up at Taking it to the Rack (no relation to Give Me The Rock). It’s a thorough one, with lots of good articles on KG’s move to the Eastern Conference, the potential Reggie Miller comeback, Jermaine O’Neal saying stupid things, a WNBA interview, and the sad, sad breakup of the Broad Street Beefcakes.

All around great Carnival. Props to you, good sir.

All the way back in 2005, Nels invited me to play in a points-based fantasy basketball league he was running. Up until that time, I had almost exclusively played in roto leagues. So, like any dork with too much time on his hands, I analyzed the league and found that the points-based weighting scheme (rebounds are worth X points, assists are worth X points, etc) favored players who could score a lot of points efficiently (think Dirk Nowitzki).

Come draft day, the first two rounds went great, but by the time the third round came my way, all the big names were off the board. As the seconds ticked off the clock, there was one name at the top of my list just staring back at me: Grant Hill. At the time, Hill was coming off a comeback year. He played in 67 games for the Magic in 2004, averaging 20 points a game while shooting 51% from the floor. 67 games! That was like a whole season. And the league rewarded players exactly like Grant Hill… So, I drafted him. In the third round!

You don’t need me to tell you what happen next, but in one of the least shocking developments of the century, Hill played in a total of 21 games that season. I basically threw away a third round pick on something that everyone knew was going to happen.

My lesson? Wait at least until the fourth round to draft Grant Hill. But really, instead of using a little common sense, I focused all my attention on the best case scenario of what could happen. IF Hill had repeated his 2004 season, he MAY have been worth that pick. But what were the chances of that happening? It had to be less than 50%. Maybe 20%, if that? There was no way I should have been picking Hill in that situation. I knew it. Grant Hill knew it. Isiah Thomas tried to talk me out of it. I couldn’t help myself because the numbers looked so good. I was greedy and I got burned.

It’s a common lesson for anyone who has played fantasy sports. Mine was just phenomenally bad. After that experience, I typically try to avoid the Baron Davis or Marcus Camby type player, unless I can get them at a deep discount, which never happens. Someone is always willing to play a steep price for the potential of a Baron Davis. Sometimes it works for a while (Davis in 2006) sometimes it doesn’t (Davis in 2004). I’m just not spending a third round pick to find out.