Give Me The Rock

Okay, I started writing this so long ago that I had a whole rant about how the depth charts everywhere were out of date. My example was the picture below from Yahoo (which I use over any other site, just cause I’m used to it), which hadn’t been updated (until August 3rd) since March 17th. I’ve removed the rant since it isn’t really applicable, but since I took the time to make the picture, it stays.

So, the big news in Seattle is that they got the 2nd pick in the draft, took Kevin Durant, and then traded Ray Allen to the Powerhouse That Is Now The Boston Celtics for the 5th Pick That Is Now Jeff Green.

Just so we’re all clear, here’s the guys that Yahoo currently has as being on the Sonics roster:
Kevin Durant (NR)
Jeff Green (NR)
Delonte West (86)
Chris Wilcox (102)
Nick Collison (121)
Luke Ridnour (126)
Wally Szczerbiak (134)
Earl Watson (135)
Damien Wilkins (149)
Kurt Thomas (208)
Johan Petro (229)
Mickael Gelabale (278)
Mouhamed Sene (426)
Robert Swift (NR)

Kevin Durant: First of all, look at the rest of the team. Okay. Now, he may only weigh as much as an Olsen twin and Nicole Richie put together… but he’s playing with Jeff Green (who’s listed as his backup, by the way). Sure, the rest of those guys are pretty good. But not “keep the team in Seattle” good. That means Durant probably won’t have as many assists as we all hope, even though there’s been rumors he’ll spend some time at the Point. The rest of his stats though? Well, it depends on how well his frail little body can hold up, because it will be holding up the entire team. Robert Swift will be a big help on the defensive end, and might actually allow Durant to get some blocks and steals. Probably enough to be useful there (provided you’re playing him at C, PF, or SF). The 3s will be good enough for a big position, and probably good enough for a guard position if Seattle has a decent offensive scheme in place. His FT% will be great. His FG% probably won’t be, if only because defensives will be built with the specific objective of stopping him. It’s hard to synthesize these numbers into some sort of rating since there isn’t really another player with the kind of stats that Durant will put up. That said, I’m going with 59. That puts him in the 6th round for 10 team drafts, and the end of the fourth round for 12 team drafts. The 59 spot was occupied by Mehmet Okur last season, so draw what you will from that.

Jeff Green: It seems to me that Green will be a Shawn Marion type player in the NBA. He has good range, and height enough to get rebounds and blocks. Not sure about his passing skills, but with Kevin Durant on the team, it can’t be that hard to get a few assists a game, right? I’m going to go with Matt Barnes as a comparison here… Something in the 10 and 5 range with a three, steal, and somewhere between a half and one block. Yes, I know that’s conservative, but it also puts him at about 93 on the player rater, which means that he’d be 9th round for 10 team drafts and 7th round for 12 team drafts, which feels about right to me.

If Kevin Durant can bulk up enough to play PF, and plays well enough there, he can probably push Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison down the bench, allowing Green to be the starter at SF. But unless there’s evidence that something like that will happen before you do your drafting, I’m sticking with my above ranking.

Robert Swift: I’m mentioning him because if he comes back from last season’s injury, he is going to be a perfect prototypical fantasy center (probably a C2). He averaged 21 minutes in 47 games last season, so if can get to playing about 30 minutes a game, he’ll probably get about 10 and 10 with at least a block and a half, maybe even 2. That would leave Kurt Thomas with the same 18 minutes he played last season, so I think it’s a good estimate. It puts him somewhere in the realm of a Samuel Dalembert. Dalembert was 68 last season, but he is a better FT shooter than Swift, and probably got a few more blocks in there. So, we’ll put Swift into the 7th or 8th round for 10 team leagues, and 7th for a 12 team draft. Unless there’s a run on Centers in the 6th round of a 12 team draft, try to wait until the 7th before taking Swift.

Delonte West: The last guy on the team who’ll probably be worth picking… But since he’s still playing with Wally World, his minutes won’t be what they probably should be for at least 1/3 of the season (i.e., until Wally gets injured). If he can get his 30 minutes a game, he’ll be worth the 8th round (10 team) or 7th round (12 team) pick. The good thing is, once Wally does get injured, Delonte is the only SG worth playing on the roster (unless you count Kevin Durant as a SG in addition to SF, PF, and PG).

Looking at the rest of the guys on the roster, there’s not much left. Wilcox and Collison played together last season and both somehow managed to get around 30 minutes for 82 games. With Swift and Durant, that’s more minutes than they’ll get this year. Both will get rebounds, a few points, and try to block some shots. They’re inside scorers which means good FG%, but Wilcox’s FT% is typical of a big guy. Collison shot 77% from the stripe last season, but it’s not going to be enough to save him from the bottom of the fantasy heap.

Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson will also split minutes, negating any real fantasy value either of them could achieve. And it’s downhill from there…

That should be enough info for you to go on with respect to the Sonics. So let me get this posted right quick, so we can get through the other 25 teams already. Maybe I can get Rachel to write a couple of these for me.