Give Me The Rock

UPDATE: Sadly, blogger extraordinaire Greg Oden will miss the entire 2007-08 season while recovering from microfracture knee surgery. Obviously, don’t draft him in the third round as is recommended below. According to Nels in Oden Over and Out, Channing Frye and Joel Pryzbilla now become viable options at center. However, it is LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy who will have to pick up the slack on this Blazers team. Expect great things from those two this season.

Greg Oden. Franchise center. Game changer. Blogger. All-American nice guy. Fan of Cookie Crisp cereal.

Oh right, Oden’s game? In an exercise that I knew eventually would be useful, I previously ranked the fantasy seasons of every player going back to 1979. So, we have the ability to look at some other big name players who were comparable to Oden and see how they played in their rookie seasons. For example, in 1985/1986, Patrick Ewing averaged 20 points, 9 rebounds, and over 2 blocks a game in his rookie season for the Knicks. On a per game basis, that made him a solid second round player (although he only played in 50 games).

David Robinson was a 24/12/4 guy in 1989/1990, which made him the 7th ranked player that season. Alonzo Mourning averaged 21/10/3.5 in 1992/93 and finished the season ranked 20th. That same year, Shaq put up a 24/14/3.5 finished the year at 17. Tim Duncan averaged 21/12/2.5 in 1997/98 - good for 4th that year.

So where does that leave Oden? It’s difficult to say he’s going to have the fantasy impact of David Robinson or Tim Duncan right from the start, simply because he is considerably younger than they were at the time. In fact, all those big men had much more college experience than Oden. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up a line almost like Mourning’s, where he goes for something like 20/11/3.5. Based on that type of performance, it’s likely that Oden will be worth at least a third round pick in most leagues, late second if you’re in a big league or feeling particularly lucky.

Third Round Pick?

Brandon Roy (55 on the player rater last season, 49 with turnovers included) was totally (sorry, I can’t stop myself) a ROY last season. He hit the ground running after coming back from an injury in December and only got better from there. Screw the sophomore slump: Roy is getting handed the reigns of this Blazers team alongside Oden. He gets to play with another talented big guy in LaMarcus Aldridge and with a pass first point guard. I’m putting a HUGE BUY stamp on Roy this year.

After visiting the Blazers website, I was shocked to see how small LaMarcus Aldridge (180, 142) looked standing next to Oden and Roy. He’s listed at 6-10, but he looks no more than an inch or two taller than Roy (whose 6-6) and way smaller than Oden (at 7-0). With Zach Randolph headed off to the Twilight Zone, all 79 inches of Aldridge will take over at the starting power forward spot. And indeed he will take over: Aldridge is a force that can score, rebound, and block shots. He had flashes of fantasy usefulness last season while averaging only 22 minutes per game. His March (before he got injured in April) is the baseline of what we can look forward to next season – 16 points, 8 rebounds, and close to 2 blocks a game. There is also the chance he could absolutely blow up while playing alongside Roy and Oden and he’s probably center eligible in your league. Like his rookie year, he’s going to be inconsistent from game to game, but he’ll ultimately end up holding his own alongside Oden and Roy

The Blazers have a fever and the only prescription is more Steve Blake. Jarrett Jack (75, 94), last season’s incumbent, had a nice little fantasy season for himself at age 24, putting up a 12/3/5 in 33 minutes a game. So, why then, did the Blazers trade for Steve Blake (188, 214)? BlazersBlog examined the question that is Steve Blake and found a completely average point guard who benefited from playing alongside Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony in Denver. That being said, with Oden, Roy, and Aldridge, a monkey could successfully run the Blazers’ point. If Blake can match what he did with Denver last year - 8 points, 6.6 assists, a three, and a steal a game – it would put him into Brevin Knight territory, or around 100 in the rankings.

Jack will have to settle for coming off the bench to backup both guard positions. He may be worth taking a flyer on in bigger leagues to see if he can approach 30 minutes a game in that role. The big loser in the situation is Sergio Rodriguez, who’s relegated to the third point guard spot.

Ime Udoka, the Blazers starting small forward last year, has his bags packed and is practically waiting at the airport for the next flight out of Portland. That leaves an opening for Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster (James Jones has also been signed as a small forward, but he’s clearly option number 3). Outlaw is a flyer and has the most potential, was just signed to a three-year deal, and according to The Oregonian, named by Nate McMillan as the favorite to start entering training camp. So I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that Outlaw is the slight favorite here. Outlaw might have a little value as a starter, but he’s clearly going to be the fourth option in this offense. He’s also going be part of a three man rotation, which just screams 25 minutes a game. Martell Webster is also a young guy who can shoot the three (1.1 a game last season) and will likely backup Outlaw.

I’ll assume that Channing Frye and Joel Przybilla slide into the backup PF and C spots on the Blazers, which means they’ll get a good, what, 15 minutes a game? They’re great options to have on a team aiming to go deep in the playoffs, not so much for fantasy teams. I could think of a lot of things to do to Raef LaFrentz, but playing him in actual NBA games isn’t one of them. And yes, Darius Miles is still on the team and, barring a miracle, will continue to be paid an incredible $9 million a year until 2010. Slot him in as the Blazers 4th option at the small forward position.

GMTR Draft Prediction

Greg Oden: 3rd Round
Brandon Roy: 4th
LaMarcus Aldridge: 7th
Steve Blake: 9th-10th
Travis Outlaw: Watch
Jarrett Jack: Watch