Give Me The Rock
this is fantasy basketball
All the way back in 2005, Nels invited me to play in a points-based fantasy basketball league he was running. Up until that time, I had almost exclusively played in roto leagues. So, like any dork with too much time on his hands, I analyzed the league and found that the points-based weighting scheme (rebounds are worth X points, assists are worth X points, etc) favored players who could score a lot of points efficiently (think Dirk Nowitzki).
Come draft day, the first two rounds went great, but by the time the third round came my way, all the big names were off the board. As the seconds ticked off the clock, there was one name at the top of my list just staring back at me: Grant Hill. At the time, Hill was coming off a comeback year. He played in 67 games for the Magic in 2004, averaging 20 points a game while shooting 51% from the floor. 67 games! That was like a whole season. And the league rewarded players exactly like Grant Hill… So, I drafted him. In the third round!
You don’t need me to tell you what happen next, but in one of the least shocking developments of the century, Hill played in a total of 21 games that season. I basically threw away a third round pick on something that everyone knew was going to happen.
My lesson? Wait at least until the fourth round to draft Grant Hill. But really, instead of using a little common sense, I focused all my attention on the best case scenario of what could happen. IF Hill had repeated his 2004 season, he MAY have been worth that pick. But what were the chances of that happening? It had to be less than 50%. Maybe 20%, if that? There was no way I should have been picking Hill in that situation. I knew it. Grant Hill knew it. Isiah Thomas tried to talk me out of it. I couldn’t help myself because the numbers looked so good. I was greedy and I got burned.
It’s a common lesson for anyone who has played fantasy sports. Mine was just phenomenally bad. After that experience, I typically try to avoid the Baron Davis or Marcus Camby type player, unless I can get them at a deep discount, which never happens. Someone is always willing to play a steep price for the potential of a Baron Davis. Sometimes it works for a while (Davis in 2006) sometimes it doesn’t (Davis in 2004). I’m just not spending a third round pick to find out.
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