Positional Value

Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy, Fantasy Draft Cheatsheet 2007
Posted on: September 9th, 2007

Last year, I took a shot at quantifying the value of the basic fantasy basketball positions: guards, forwards, and centers based on data from 2003 to 2006.

Just like in fantasy football, where running backs are drafted first, the point was to find out if there was a particular position in fantasy basketball that should be focused on in a draft. Last year’s article found that centers were the scariest position, followed by forwards and guards. It seems pretty narcissistic to quote myself, but I’m a lazy bastard:

Talent compresses as you move down the draft. If you bump Yao Ming’s rating by 0.8, it doesn’t do very much because the guys in front of him are some of the best in the league. Mehmet Okur is helped more because the players around him are not quite as good and the talent is closer to each other. So, round 1 and 2 should be about taking the best player available without worrying about position. In rounds 3 to 7, the bump starts to become a round for centers and a half a round for forwards. Round 8+, the bump increases to approximately 2 rounds for centers and a round for forwards. However, at this point, there is a lot of uncertainly in predicting player value and therefore the draft should become mostly about looking for sleepers and guys with upside with less regard for position.

Sounds about right. So do those results hold up for 2006-07? Pretty much, although forwards have continued to improve. Now, the core of forwards are much closer in value to guards then they are to centers. There is a new stud group forwards in the league like Josh Smith, Josh Howard, and Andre Iguodala who are raising the overall value of the group.

The table shows the three positions with their average and median values based on a ten team roto league starting 100 players (40 guards, 40 forwards, and 20 centers). Overall, just like last year, guards have the most talent. Their average rating is 0.3 with a median rating of zero.

Compared to the pre-2006 timeframe, forwards have closed the gap with a vengeance. Their average rating rises to 0.1, but the median rating is better even than the guards at 0.1. This basically means that the mid-round forwards are slightly more talented fantasy-wise than their guard counterparts (who with Kobe, Arenas, Nash, Wade, etc – have a higher peak than the forwards).

Centers still are the scarcest position. The average center comes in with a rating of -0.8, with a median value of -1.8. The low median value is an indication that the center position is quite top-heavy, with a few very good centers like Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, Marcus Camby, and Chris Bosh, with a quick drop off after that.

What does this mean for your draft? Yes, more than ever, it pays to reach for one of the quality centers at the start of your draft. Forwards and guards are much more abundant in the mid-rounds, while the quality of centers drops off dramatically. Don’t pick Yao or Stoudemire in the first round over someone like Kobe or Garnett, but it’ll pay off to have your center drafted by the third round.

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