Give Me The Rock
this is fantasy basketball
Hornets’ fans are pumped for the season. They are predicting an average of 45-46 wins for the team and a trip to the playoffs. The Hornets Fan Blog crunched the numbers and even came up with 50 wins for the team! On the other end of the spectrum is crusty, old spoilsport John Hollinger, who in his ESPN Hornets’ preview came up with a predicted record of 39-43 – two fewer wins than last season.
So, why such divergent opinions on the NOH? Here is their projected lineup going into the season (at least until Peja’s back explodes). I think you’ll see a theme once we dig into the players.
PG: Chris Paul (23, 19)
SG: Morris Peterson (197, 177)
SF: Peja Stojakovic (92, 74)
PF: David West (58, 48)
C: Tyson Chandler (70, 62)
Bench:
Bobby Jackson (173, 180)
Jannero Pargo (191, 211)
Rasual Butler (192, 166)
Hilton Armstrong (343, 340)
Marcus Vinicius (390, 387)
Melvin Ely (400, 436)
Julian Wright (R)
Adam Haluska (R)
PG
There is something in fantasy basketball I like to call the “youth taxâ€. Basically, Chris Paul and Jason Kidd have about the same fantasy value, although Kidd has been slightly better and much healthier over the past two years. And yet, people are much more excited to draft Paul than they are Kidd, both this year and last. You can hear it in their voices. The “upside†associated with someone like Paul causes him to be drafted a little sooner than he should be in my opinion. So, if you want Paul on your team you have to pay a youth tax of a half a round or so. Personally, I’d rather have Kidd.
But let’s be positive here. When Paul is healthy, he is a top tier point guard only slightly behind Gilbert Arenas and Steve Nash. Hornet’s fans love him because he rejuvenated the franchise with his passion and effort on the court. Last year he averaged 17, 4.4, and 9 with almost 2 steals in 64 games. His points, assists, and threes will almost certainly go up in his third year. What worries me is that even though he’s a young guy, he missed time last year with injuries to his hand, ribs, and ankle. It’s way too early to compare him to Baron Davis, although it seems a little risky to go early second round on him.
Surprise Pop Quiz! Who or what has done the most to rejuvenate the city of New Orleans?
A. Ray Nagin
B. Marti Gras
C. The Saints
D. Chris Paul
SG
Morris Peterson had a disappointing year with Toronto last season, losing his starting gig early in the year. The vet just didn’t fit in with the young Raptors team and his role shifted from a second option on offense to three-point specialist. He’s not going to make it back to his 2005-06 level of performance again, when he averaged 38 minutes for the Raptors, but I actually like him as a deep, deep sleeper on this team. Between Paul, Peja Stojakovic, and Davis West, someone on this team is going to get hurt. When they do, Peterson will almost be forced to take a larger role on offense.
SF
Here is a fun fact about Peja Stojakovic. He recently told the New Orleans Times-Picayune that he’s still not 100 percent after undergoing back surgery LAST year, emphasis on last. That’s a situation I’m not interested in getting involved with. Sure, Peja can still shoot the three. He is currently going around 100 in the GMTR mock draft round up. Like Brad Miller, Peja is the fantasy equivalent of a lottery ticket. If you can grab him after round 9, it’s a low risk pick that has a small chance of paying off big. But in all likelihood, you’ll be left with nothing.
PF
David West is a good mid-round player who is a solid scorer (18.3) and rebounder (8.3). However, the inability to stay healthy and a lack of confidence in his game has kept him from taking the next step. In the past two years West has missed a full season’s worth of games. And his recovery from those injuries has been painfully slow at times, especially for fantasy owners watching him rot away on their bench week after week with nothing in the way of new progress reports. He’s a young guy, so expect some improvement in those counting stats – his points per game could approach 20-21 – but there is a very good chance we’ll see him on the sidelines in a suit at some point in the season.
C
A few years ago, did anyone think Tyson Chandler would become C1 caliber? Not me. Chandler had a nice year for the Hornets where he bumped up his rebounds to 12.4 (and increase of 3.4) and almost doubled his points per game. And there’s reason to be even more excited about him this year (in addition to the fact that he’s still only 25): as noted by the Hornets Blog, it took Chandler a few months to get acclimated to his new team. But when he did, oh boy. From February of last year on, he averaged 13 points and 14 rebounds a game. Putting those numbers into the GMTR player rater, he would have ranked as #54 best player last season, right between Tony Parker and Andre Miller.
The only negative about Chandler is his free-throw percentage. 52.7% is horrendous. Crunching the numbers, he was the 7th worst free throw shooter fantasy-wise last season. Well, at least there are worse. Don’t pair him with Shaq, Dwight Howard, or Carlos Boozer and you’ll be alright.
Bench
The rest of the team has zero fantasy value, injuries or not. For some unknown reason, New Orleans recently traded last years’ #15 pick Cedric Simmons for David Wesley and cash. That leaves them painfully short on big men, unless you think Hilton Armstrong is the answer. In fact, the Hornets are even considering bringing back P.J. Brown to come off the bench. The signing of Melvin Ely means that we’ve probably seen the last of the Birdman. A moment of silence for the greatest dunker of our generation, please. Bobby Jackson and Jannero Pargo will be the first guards of the bench. Both had some short-lived value last season when Paul was injured, but Pargo was so bad is his stint that he lost the starting gig.
The consensus is that the Hornets had a good off season, signing Morris Peterson and Melvin Ely and drafting Julian Wright. But a look at their bench and I would have to mildly disagree, especially if their goal is to make some noise in the playoffs. IF everyone can stay healthy, the Hornets are a good young team that can make the playoffs. If anyone gets hurt for an extended period, they’re toast.
GMTR Draft Prediction
Chris Paul: 2nd Round
Tyson Chandler: 5th
David West: 6th/7th
Peja Stojakovic: 10+
Morris Peterson: 10+
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