Comments on: How Consistent are Player Stats from One Year to the Next? http://givemetherock.com/2007/12/06/how-consistent-are-player-stats-from-one-year-to-the-next/ this is fantasy basketball Thu, 09 Feb 2012 23:07:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Give Me The Rock » Blog Archive » Fantasy Basketball and Managing Injuries http://givemetherock.com/2007/12/06/how-consistent-are-player-stats-from-one-year-to-the-next/comment-page-1/#comment-7098 Give Me The Rock » Blog Archive » Fantasy Basketball and Managing Injuries Tue, 16 Nov 2010 01:54:15 +0000 http://givemetherock.com/2007/12/05/how-consistent-are-player-stats-from-one-year-to-the-next/#comment-7098 [...] mind recently because, well, there have been a lot of them lately. I’ve also been thinking about some research I did a long time ago that found games played among players to be only loosely correlated from year to [...] [...] mind recently because, well, there have been a lot of them lately. I’ve also been thinking about some research I did a long time ago that found games played among players to be only loosely correlated from year to [...]

]]> By: Give Me The Rock » Blog Archive » The GMTR Hot List: Top 10 Fantasy Shooting Guards http://givemetherock.com/2007/12/06/how-consistent-are-player-stats-from-one-year-to-the-next/comment-page-1/#comment-2761 Give Me The Rock » Blog Archive » The GMTR Hot List: Top 10 Fantasy Shooting Guards Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:07:10 +0000 http://givemetherock.com/2007/12/05/how-consistent-are-player-stats-from-one-year-to-the-next/#comment-2761 [...] and on the positive side, games played happens to be the least consistent stat from one year to the next in the [...] [...] and on the positive side, games played happens to be the least consistent stat from one year to the next in the [...]

]]> By: Patrick http://givemetherock.com/2007/12/06/how-consistent-are-player-stats-from-one-year-to-the-next/comment-page-1/#comment-2760 Patrick Fri, 07 Dec 2007 03:38:39 +0000 http://givemetherock.com/2007/12/05/how-consistent-are-player-stats-from-one-year-to-the-next/#comment-2760 Also, if you look at the points chart, someone (who you can see as a dot on the bottom right) scored about 25 points a game one year and under 10 the next. Any guesses on who that was? I didn't control for games played, only minutes, so it's possible it could be a fluke. Also, if you look at the points chart, someone (who you can see as a dot on the bottom right) scored about 25 points a game one year and under 10 the next. Any guesses on who that was? I didn’t control for games played, only minutes, so it’s possible it could be a fluke.

]]> By: Patrick http://givemetherock.com/2007/12/06/how-consistent-are-player-stats-from-one-year-to-the-next/comment-page-1/#comment-2759 Patrick Fri, 07 Dec 2007 03:31:01 +0000 http://givemetherock.com/2007/12/05/how-consistent-are-player-stats-from-one-year-to-the-next/#comment-2759 Cors, this may be more a part 2 discussion, but I think you're spot on with your commentary. It became clear to me when I looked at the graph of blocks vs. points. Blocks have a high level of correlation at the low end (i.e., players who do not block any shots) and most of the variability occurs at the high end (i.e., the players that we’d be interested in drafting in fantasy leagues for their blocks). On the other end of the spectrum, the variability in points per game is consistent across all players (as are percentages, I would assume). So, I think you’re absolutely right. Saying you could predict blocks or assists or threes is a little misleading. You could easily predict it for guys who don’t do any of it (the six foot guard with 0 blocks). But for centers who block more shots, they are much more inconsistent from year to year. Provided I can find the time, I’d love to explore the question more deeply. I appreciate the interesting comment. Cors, this may be more a part 2 discussion, but I think you’re spot on with your commentary. It became clear to me when I looked at the graph of blocks vs. points. Blocks have a high level of correlation at the low end (i.e., players who do not block any shots) and most of the variability occurs at the high end (i.e., the players that we’d be interested in drafting in fantasy leagues for their blocks). On the other end of the spectrum, the variability in points per game is consistent across all players (as are percentages, I would assume). So, I think you’re absolutely right. Saying you could predict blocks or assists or threes is a little misleading. You could easily predict it for guys who don’t do any of it (the six foot guard with 0 blocks). But for centers who block more shots, they are much more inconsistent from year to year. Provided I can find the time, I’d love to explore the question more deeply.

I appreciate the interesting comment.

]]> By: Cors http://givemetherock.com/2007/12/06/how-consistent-are-player-stats-from-one-year-to-the-next/comment-page-1/#comment-2758 Cors Thu, 06 Dec 2007 23:10:53 +0000 http://givemetherock.com/2007/12/05/how-consistent-are-player-stats-from-one-year-to-the-next/#comment-2758 Great work on the stat analysis there mate. Personally, i haven't done stax of proper statistical analysis since Uni. So i may be way off here. But looking at your data, I think the high correlation for blocks and assists may be due to the high number of players that don't do many of either. For example, there are a tonne of players that get little to no blocks year in year out and their production in this area will barely change (cos they aint getting any taller). So i think that sort of thing might be skewing your data a fair bit. I think the %'s is one of the least skewed bits of data, so it prob best represents what you're trying to achieve. Hope this rant is helpful for future analysis stuff. Keep up the good work, luv yr site. Great work on the stat analysis there mate.
Personally, i haven’t done stax of proper statistical analysis since Uni. So i may be way off here. But looking at your data, I think the high correlation for blocks and assists may be due to the high number of players that don’t do many of either. For example, there are a tonne of players that get little to no blocks year in year out and their production in this area will barely change (cos they aint getting any taller). So i think that sort of thing might be skewing your data a fair bit. I think the %’s is one of the least skewed bits of data, so it prob best represents what you’re trying to achieve.
Hope this rant is helpful for future analysis stuff. Keep up the good work, luv yr site.

]]>