Give Me The Rock

Nels recently posted about the US national team and the possible fantasy impact that the Olympics will have on the players during the regular season. In the comments, reader siukong asked our opinion on Yao Ming and (presumably) Ming’s recent comments that he’ll ready to play for China’s national team come July.

Now Ming’s injury history has been well, well documented. Most recently, it was announced that he had a stress fracture in his left foot on February 26, 2008. The fracture caused him to miss the rest of the regular season and playoffs. He played in only 55 games this year, after playing 48 in 06/07 and 57 in 05/06. In all, Ming has missed 86 games the past three seasons.

With the Olympics beginning in August, Ming has said that he’s currently eying a mid-July return. Specifically, he has said he’d like to be on the court when the Chinese team plays in the Stankovic Cup on July 17. Does he expect to be fully recovered by then? Well, according to the AP:

A day after returning to Beijing, Yao said X-rays and an MRI taken in Houston on Tuesday showed his recovery was on schedule, with the foot about 80 percent healed. The remaining 20 percent usually takes a full year, Yao said.

I only play a doctor on a blog, but that seems like a red flag to me. Not only is Ming’s foot not completely healed, but it likely won’t heal until the end of next season. And playing in full speed competition for a month or more can’t be good for the healing process either.

But Ming wouldn’t play if his foot didn’t feel up to the task, right?

With pressure on Yao to perform, some have questioned whether he would be pushing himself so hard were the Olympics not being held in Beijing. Yao dismissed such speculation, saying that there were “no ‘ifs’ about the Olympics, there are no ‘ifs’ about me.”

“This is the biggest, weightiest opportunity of my life,” Yao said. “Intense pressure goes hand-in-hand with major competitions.”

Um, right. That sounds a little like a guy who might be pushing himself back to the court too early for the sake of his country. Who knows, though. I might be reading too much into the words, “biggest opportunity of my life.”

Now, as Nels pointed out in his post, we don’t really know how international play during the summer affects NBA players, if at all. In fact, US players with history in these games don’t appear to be any worse off for it during the following regular reason. However, in Ming we have a guy who has not been able to stay healthy the past 3 years, who is rushing back to play on a foot that’s 80% healed, and has admitted that the remaining 20% won’t heal for a year.

Maybe it wouldn’t get him convicted in criminal court, but that’s enough evidence to make me seriously consider avoiding Ming in all drafts. Until then, we at least have the summer to watch him play and see how his foot reacts to the grind.

That’s right folks, Chris Paul and Deron Williams have singlehandedly ushered in a new era in the NBA. For lack of a better term, let’s call it the Everybody Wants a Point Guard Era. I, of course, am hoping that Derrick Rose will be the next step in the evolution of this era. Patrick is hoping that the piece of the puzzle is actually Rajon Rondo. The Trailblazers are hoping that Jerryd Bayless is the PG of the Era, anchoring their new “Youngstown” lineup.

So, let’s take a look at the PGs in the NBA from a fantasy perspective. This would probably have taken me about a million years to write just trying to figure out which of the rookies is actually on which team… but…

I asked Patrick to contribute something to this article, and mentioned the draft, and it was a good thing I was that specific because if you read what follows, he might have just written the whole thing without me if I’d just said I was writing about the Everybody Wants a Point Guard Era.

Patrick:

Have we reached the era of the point guard? Well, for all his Canadian charm, Steve Nash has not been able to lead the Suns to the promise land, the most interesting thing about Tony Parker is his wife, and Jason Kidd to Dallas worked out about as well as Mike Myers’ The Love Guru. But those guys are the old guard (literally). It’s the young PGs in the league that are not only fun to watch, but easily make their teams significantly better. Both Chris Paul and Deron Williams led teams that had legitimate shots at the championship THIS year and that will be contenders through the next decade. Boston won the finals with (not despite of) Rajon Rondo running the point and Jordan Farmar was one of the only bright spots for the Lakers in the finals.

And now, thanks to the draft, the NBA is adding some significant PG talent to the league. Starting with Derrick Rose, there are some talented point guards entering the NBA.

Derrick Rose – So, I guess this is the end of the Kirk Hinrich era in Chicago. I’m sure that you’re going to miss it, right Nels? Unlike a lot of lottery teams, the Bulls are actually a good team – at least they have the talent to be – so unlike a Kevin Durant, Rose won’t be asked to lead this team right from the start. I’ve heard Rose compared to someone like Deron Williams, which if he follows William’s career path, would mean that he’s in for one season of adjustment to the NBA game (think 10-12 points/5 assists) before he begins his quick journey to the elite group of PGs. This year, I’d put him in the 3rd/4th tier of PGs, in with the likes of Jameer Nelson and Anthony Carter.

O.J. Mayo – Heads to Memphis were it appears they will install him as their shooting guard and keep Conley at the point. I still have him in the PG rundown because Memphis sucks and Mayo should get plenty of opportunity on the offensive end. As a result, I think he has an excellent shot at rookie of the year. I expect Mayo and Michael Beasley to have the 2 best fantasy seasons among all rookies. He won’t play much defense or score efficiently, but the counting stats will be there.

Russell Westbrook – Goes to Seattle, a team who is current in an arms race with Portland to see who can build the youngest team in the league. Westbrook apparently has Tremendous. Upside. Potential. But when I hear the words, “lockdown defender” and “has some work to do offensively” and “has the chance to be like Rajon Rondo” I’m going to pass for fantasy purposes for this year. Let him develop that offensive game on someone else’s fantasy team.

D.J. Augustin – I don’t think it needs to be said, but Michael Jordan is not a good NBA executive. I hear Charlotte is shopping Raymond Felton around, so of course, they decide to go and draft the same type of player in D.J. Augustin. If Felton gets traded, maybe I’d think about drafting Augustin in the late rounds, otherwise I’d avoid him this year because I don’t think the minutes will be there.

Jerryd Bayless – Very Nice pick for the Blazers (via Indiana). Portland sent Jarret Jack as a part of this trade, so Bayless’ competition at the point is currently Steve Blake and Sergio Rodriguez. I like those odds. Bayless could side into the starting lineup this year and while he might not get big minutes right away, but he’ll be worth taking a flyer on in drafts just to see what kind of minutes he gets.

George Hill – The Spurs drafted this 3rd year combo-guard because he can step right in next year and play a reserve role on an aging championship caliber team. If that sounds interesting to you, maybe fantasy basketball isn’t your thing.

I was going to write more about either the draft or the list of Point Guards that follows, but Patrick pretty much covered the former, and it’s a pretty long list down there… so, feel free to have a look, and leave a comment if you want me to expand on my thoughts regarding a particular player. Yes, there are other Point Guards in the league who are not on this list. That’s all I have to say about that, really.

* This projection assumes he gets traded
** This is the optimistic “Stephon gets benched” projection

PS: Thank you to WordPress for the preview post feature. Believe it or not, even professional web developers don’t always make tables right on the first try.

I had to do way too much work for a Friday, but there should be some actual draft - and fantasy - related posts coming soon.

In the mean time… I’m pretty much elated to find/figure out that Derrick Rose has at least an inch and a half on Chris Paul. As someone who is 5′ 11″, I can tell you how much short it feels to be that height when you’re with someone who’s 6′ 1″ or 6′ 2″.

So, the combined NBA experience of the Blazers starting lineup is going to clock in at about 7 years?

The rumored trade between the Pacers and Raptors involving Jermaine O’Neal for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and Toronto’s No. 17 pick is officially on. Well, kind of. Because of a league memorandum on trades, it can’t officially happen until July 9th, so we’ll all just pretend nothing has happened for the next couple weeks. These aren’t the droids you’re looking for…

From a fantasy point of view, there is all kinds of goodness spewing out of this trade.

Big Winner

Jose Calderon: He was a beast for the Raptors last year, averaging over 8 assists in only 30 minutes a game. Thanks to injuries to TJ Ford, Calderon started 56 games. Although by the end of the season the Raptors had reinserted Ford into their starting lineup because his ego had trouble coming off the bench. Now with Ford gone, the starting gig is all Calderon’s. Imagine what the guy will do with 5+ minutes a game next year. I think he’ll easily average over 10 assists a game and be the fifth best PG in the league behind Paul, Nash, Arenas, and Billups.

Winners

Jermaine O’Neal: It’s difficult to see how a trade can improve someone’s health, but as John Hollinger reports, “he’s reportedly spending his summer in Las Vegas, working out with noted trainer Joe Abunassar.”

I have no idea who that is or what that means. Regardless, the move will probably help O’Neal’s motivation; to say he was stagnating in Indiana for the past few years is an understatement. O’Neal will slide into the center spot for the Raps, replacing the 7-foot granite stone named Rasho Nesterovic. O’Neal should see the ball enough to maintain his 19-20ish PPG and he’ll bounce back to pre 07/08 rebounding level of 9 a game. Kelly Dwyer writes:

Even at 60 games a year, O’Neal is a needed defender and finisher on the break or in Toronto’s preferred slow-down set. He can run a screen and roll and the two bookends of Jermaine and Chris Bosh will be a tough cover on either end.

As Dwyer hints at, I believe O’Neal’s appearance will also help…

Chris Bosh: Normally, when a team trades for a very good player, the teams other good players don’t stand to benefit from it stats-wise. And I don’t believe that Bosh will. With O’Neal in the frontcourt, Bosh could see his rebounding numbers slide down even further than they were last year. However, I happen to agree with Hollinger’s assessment:

It also eases the wear and tear on Chris Bosh, who has suffered from having to play in the middle for much the past two seasons. Now Bosh is free to play where he belongs, at his natural power forward spot. And Andrea Bargnani is free to go back where he belongs: the bench.

I love the major Bargnani slam. Now, Bosh’s stats aren’t going to benefit significantly from O’Neal’s appearance (slightly more efficient offensive negates less defense from Bosh?), but hopefully the wear and tear and his ability to stay on the court will. Of course, he’s also playing in the Olympics this summer, so maybe all bets should be off.

TJ Ford: Ford vs. Calderon was a fight that TJ was eventually going to lose. With the trade, Ford moves to a team that is in desperate need of a PG (unless you think Jamaal Tinsley) is the answer. There are still a lot of questions here, like Ford’s health, what will the Pacers do with Tinsley (a trade, if they find any takers) and what they are going to do with their 11th and 17th picks (rumors say they are still interested in point guard D.J. Augustin). But for now, Ford will get a chance to run the show in Indiana instead of dueling it out with Calderon in Toronto.

Possible Winners

Troy Murphy? Nah, forget it.

Losers

Jamaal Tinsley: Tinsley is a worthless piece of shit nauseating frustrating fantasy player who has skills (8.4 assists) if you’re cool with getting 40 games out of him. The Pacers are looking to shoot trade the guy, provided they can find an idiot a GM who actually wants him. Trade or no trade, the Tinsley era is over in Indiana.

Big Loser

Andrea Bargnani: For the reasons mentioned above. He’ll struggle to even play 20 minutes a game next season.

and other people who like Digg-type social news sites.

I have set up a Fantasy Basketball Community at Mixx.com. Any posted links, videos, or photos that are tagged with “fantasy basketball” or “nba” will be automatically added to the Fantasy Basketball Community. From there, people can vote and leave comments (a la Digg, BallHype, YardBarker, etc.).

If there’s all those other sites, why add one more to the mix (pun intended)? Well, because Mixx has the advantage of letting you (or others submitting links) add categories like “Fantasy Draft”, “Rankings” and “Waiver Wire” so you can narrow your focus depending on what you’re looking for. And, honestly, it’s another place to submit your posts and reach people who aren’t on one of the other sites (or will never even see one of your posts on Digg).

Passion and Pride does a sort of video comparison of Louis Williams against the 2008 draft prospects. The part that I find the most intriguing is that Williams is playing against people who are already in the NBA in his video, where as the draft prospects are shown against high school and college players. Of course, Williams has been in the NBA for 3 years already (I know! Who knew?) and who knows what Derrick Rose and OJ Mayo are going to be playing like after 3 years in the league.

But, let’s look for a moment at Williams’ numbers before and after the All-Star break.

Let’s also keep in mind that Andre Miller - the 76ers starting PG - played 36 minutes per game in all 82 games for Philly last year. That means Williams was getting some time as the backup SG. At 6-2, that can be a red flag for fantasy owners, but when your team is young and fast and running all the time like the 76ers, you can get away with having a smaller lineup out there.

In his last 10 games, Williams had a -3.5 on the Player Rater, which - for a whole season - would have put him at somewhere between 140 and 146 with guys like James Jones, Jordan Farmar, Larry Hughes, Ben Wallace, Drew Gooden, Maurice Evans, and Jermaine O’Neal. In a 12×13 league, there’s 156 players drafted, so being in the 140s means a late 12th or 13th round pick.

I’m not pointing out Williams as if to say he’ll be better than Derrick Rose or OJ Mayo in 08-09, but rather to simply say that he has gone from Off The Radar to On. He is above the league average in Scoring, Assists, and Steals, and is listed on Yahoo as a G, which means he would fit very well into a small ball lineup.

I’m going to make a pre-draft prediction (and feel pretty safe since the Sixers are unlikely to take another PG with Miller and Williams already slotted) of: 11.5 points, 0.8 threes, 3.2 assists, 2 rebounds, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks, 1.7 turnovers, with 45% FG and 80% FT. As I mentioned above, that’ll probably place him in the 140s, and you probably won’t want to go higher than that in order to leave room for the Upside Potential that makes him a Sleeper pick.