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The rumored trade between the Pacers and Raptors involving Jermaine O’Neal for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic and Toronto’s No. 17 pick is officially on. Well, kind of. Because of a league memorandum on trades, it can’t officially happen until July 9th, so we’ll all just pretend nothing has happened for the next couple weeks. These aren’t the droids you’re looking for…
From a fantasy point of view, there is all kinds of goodness spewing out of this trade.
Big Winner
Jose Calderon: He was a beast for the Raptors last year, averaging over 8 assists in only 30 minutes a game. Thanks to injuries to TJ Ford, Calderon started 56 games. Although by the end of the season the Raptors had reinserted Ford into their starting lineup because his ego had trouble coming off the bench. Now with Ford gone, the starting gig is all Calderon’s. Imagine what the guy will do with 5+ minutes a game next year. I think he’ll easily average over 10 assists a game and be the fifth best PG in the league behind Paul, Nash, Arenas, and Billups.
Winners
Jermaine O’Neal: It’s difficult to see how a trade can improve someone’s health, but as John Hollinger reports, “he’s reportedly spending his summer in Las Vegas, working out with noted trainer Joe Abunassar.”
I have no idea who that is or what that means. Regardless, the move will probably help O’Neal’s motivation; to say he was stagnating in Indiana for the past few years is an understatement. O’Neal will slide into the center spot for the Raps, replacing the 7-foot granite stone named Rasho Nesterovic. O’Neal should see the ball enough to maintain his 19-20ish PPG and he’ll bounce back to pre 07/08 rebounding level of 9 a game. Kelly Dwyer writes:
Even at 60 games a year, O’Neal is a needed defender and finisher on the break or in Toronto’s preferred slow-down set. He can run a screen and roll and the two bookends of Jermaine and Chris Bosh will be a tough cover on either end.
As Dwyer hints at, I believe O’Neal’s appearance will also help…
Chris Bosh: Normally, when a team trades for a very good player, the teams other good players don’t stand to benefit from it stats-wise. And I don’t believe that Bosh will. With O’Neal in the frontcourt, Bosh could see his rebounding numbers slide down even further than they were last year. However, I happen to agree with Hollinger’s assessment:
It also eases the wear and tear on Chris Bosh, who has suffered from having to play in the middle for much the past two seasons. Now Bosh is free to play where he belongs, at his natural power forward spot. And Andrea Bargnani is free to go back where he belongs: the bench.
I love the major Bargnani slam. Now, Bosh’s stats aren’t going to benefit significantly from O’Neal’s appearance (slightly more efficient offensive negates less defense from Bosh?), but hopefully the wear and tear and his ability to stay on the court will. Of course, he’s also playing in the Olympics this summer, so maybe all bets should be off.
TJ Ford: Ford vs. Calderon was a fight that TJ was eventually going to lose. With the trade, Ford moves to a team that is in desperate need of a PG (unless you think Jamaal Tinsley) is the answer. There are still a lot of questions here, like Ford’s health, what will the Pacers do with Tinsley (a trade, if they find any takers) and what they are going to do with their 11th and 17th picks (rumors say they are still interested in point guard D.J. Augustin). But for now, Ford will get a chance to run the show in Indiana instead of dueling it out with Calderon in Toronto.
Possible Winners
Troy Murphy? Nah, forget it.
Losers
Jamaal Tinsley: Tinsley is a worthless piece of shit nauseating frustrating fantasy player who has skills (8.4 assists) if you’re cool with getting 40 games out of him. The Pacers are looking to shoot trade the guy, provided they can find an idiot a GM who actually wants him. Trade or no trade, the Tinsley era is over in Indiana.
Big Loser
Andrea Bargnani: For the reasons mentioned above. He’ll struggle to even play 20 minutes a game next season.
Good thing I checked my email before I started writing my own post on the trade.
Just to get the discussion started - Bosh and Granger were 14 and 17 on the Player Rater, respectively. Bosh may get a few extra games in, but is he going to still be in the top 20? Also, do you think Granger had his best season in 07-08, or do you think with TJ Ford at the point that he’ll be able to step up his scoring in 08-09?
Comment by Nels — June 26, 2008 @ 8:33 am
We’ll probably know before most people ready this comment, but it will be interesting to see who the Pacers take now that they have two first round picks. DraftExpress has them taking two 7-footers, but I’m wondering if they don’t have some concerns about TJ Ford’s health… Then again, they do have Jeff Foster and Troy Murphy up front.
Comment by Nels — June 26, 2008 @ 8:43 am
Oh, finally, Jamario Moon? How are his rebounding and shot blocking affected with O’Neal in the middle now and Bosh sliding over to the 4… Even 1 block a game will still be good for his SF position, and even 5 rebounds is above the league average… But if those are the numbers, it seems like he’ll drop out of the top 100 (despite ending the season at 59).
Comment by Nels — June 26, 2008 @ 8:51 am
Lots of questions, Nels, lots of questions. I didn’t look at Bosh’s rating before writing this thing up, I actually wasn’t aware it was so high. I still think he finishes next year in the mid-to-high teens, with hopefully a few more games played than what we’ve seen in the past from him. So, maybe he’s more of a wash than a winner as a result of the trade, although something about me just has a warm feeling about the O’Neal/Bosh combo. I can’t explain why putting two guys who haven’t been able to stay healthy together would result in good things. It just doesn’t make sense, but I love it.
I didn’t mention Granger because I don’t think he’s affected all that much. He’s a great young player who I think is going to peak as a solid-second round type of fantasy player. TJ Ford doesn’t affect my opinion of him all that much. I think as Granger matures, he’ll do what a lot of all-star type players do – that is start a slow shift into a more offensive/scoring role while his defensive numbers slip a little bit. Still, I think Granger is for real.
Moon? I don’t know. I really don’t. I’ve been waiting for him to fade away since he entered the league, but he’s going as strong as ever. Anyone have an opinion one way or another on him?
And I’m no draft expert, but it looks like you are correct, Nels. Now that the Pacers have Ford, most “experts” have them leaning more towards big men. Chad Ford does have them selecting PG Mario Chalmers with their shiny, new 17th pick. That seems to make some sense, since he can play both guard positions. I guess we’ll see tonight.
Comment by Patrick — June 26, 2008 @ 10:02 am
It seems to me that Indiana is getting the better deal here. They are able to re-tool there franchise. Lets not forget Jermaine is on a short contract. Toronto seems to be shooting for the stars. If the Jermaine/Bosh combo went 82 games I think they would be a tough tandem. One of the things i loved about Jermaine is his all star defense. One of the few things you could count on was several blocks a game along with his 20pts and 9-10 boards when he was healthy. He really is a BEAST but that damn KNEE.
Now if we could just unload Jamal. I met him once the week he was drafted at a nightclub here in indy. I actually made his drink. Never was impressed with him from then on.
Comment by indy rick — June 26, 2008 @ 10:16 am
Hey indy rick, what does Tinsley drink? Purple Hooters?
As far as the Pacers go, it’s good that they finally decided go with the rebuilding process. They have a good core of young guys now. We’ll see if they can do anything with it in a couple years.
Comment by Patrick — June 26, 2008 @ 10:22 am
nice breakdown about tinsley
Comment by Terrance — June 28, 2008 @ 5:58 pm