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And if you’ve played in a league that uses percentages as a category, you probably know that already. I know it, your little brother knows it, hell your little grandma with the one good hand probably knows it. But – as I’ve experienced – there’s a difference between “knowing” and “knowing during a draft with 15 seconds on the clock and you’re scrambling to make a pick.”
But let me start at the beginning. If you want to win the free throw and field goal shooting percentages, especially in roto leagues, there are two things to watch and they’re about equally important. The first obviously is a player’s actual shooting percentage. The second is the number of shots they take. Since percentages are averaged across an entire fantasy team, players who take more shots on your team are going to have more sway on your team’s percentages.
But, as always, the question is by how much? Here are the top 20 free throw shooters in the league last year, with their actual free throw percentage first , followed by the number of attempts averaged per game, and then their Effective Free Throw” percentage, which is the weighted percentage compared to someone who takes the league average number of free throws per game.
The Best Fantasy FT Shooters in 07/08
| Player | FT% | Att/Gm | EFT |
| Kevin Martin | 86.9% | 9.5 | 96.3% |
| Chauncey Billups | 91.8% | 5.6 | 94.8% |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 87.9% | 7.1 | 93.2% |
| Caron Butler | 90.1% | 4.5 | 89.9% |
| Kobe Bryant | 84.0% | 9.0 | 89.7% |
| Chris Bosh | 84.4% | 8.3 | 89.7% |
| Ben Gordon | 90.8% | 4.1 | 89.4% |
| Kevin Durant | 87.3% | 5.6 | 89.3% |
| Yao Ming | 85.0% | 7.4 | 89.2% |
| Manu Ginobili | 86.0% | 6.0 | 88.4% |
| Ray Allen | 90.7% | 3.2 | 87.0% |
| Jamal Crawford | 86.4% | 4.8 | 86.7% |
| Paul Pierce | 84.3% | 6.1 | 86.4% |
| Steve Nash | 90.6% | 3.0 | 86.3% |
| Chris Paul | 85.1% | 4.9 | 85.6% |
| Danny Granger | 85.2% | 4.7 | 85.4% |
| David West | 85.0% | 4.6 | 85.1% |
| Corey Maggette | 81.2% | 9.7 | 84.8% |
| Brad Miller | 84.8% | 4.3 | 84.4% |
| Jerry Stackhouse | 89.2% | 2.6 | 84.2% |
If the table above shows anything, it’s that the number of free throws taken has a great effect on a player’s EFT, which you can think of as the percentage of shots he’d have to hit if he averaged the same amount of shots/game as everyone else. Kevin Martin was the league’s most effective free throw shooter last year despite the fact that he “only” shot 87% from the line. The fact that he took 9.5 free throws a game was the reason. Likewise, Kobe at 9 attempts a game and 84% is a better buy for FT% than Ben Gordon, Ray Allen, and Steve Nash, who all averaged around 91% but shot less FTs.
Depending on the cutoff you want to use, either Brent Barry (95%) or Peja Stojakovic (92.9%) had the best actual FT% last year. But neither of these guys cracks the top-20 FT shooters because Barry only averaged 0.6 free throws a game and Peja 1.8. So, if you’re thinking about drafting Peja this year and one of the reasons is because he’s a good FT shooter, I’d recommend writing him a letter first to call him out as a weak European man-child whose cries like the baby his is when he gets hit on the court because it might ruin his new manicure.
Anyway, the Yang to Kevin Martin’s Ying has to be Dwight Howard, who is quietly taking the Shaquille O’Neal approach to fantasy basketball. His 59% from the line isn’t the worst in the league, it’s the fact that he’s doing while averaging close to 11 shots a game. His 32.6% EFT% is a good 12 points worse than Shaq’s, who’s falling apart so fast that it makes the US economy look stable. Howard is still usable in H2H leagues, but he’s quickly becoming such a category killer in roto leagues that I’ll probably avoid him in every league this year.
The Worst Fantasy FT Shooters in 07/08
| Player | FT% | Att/Gm | EFT |
| Dwight Howard | 59.0% | 10.9 | 32.6% |
| Shaquille O’Neal | 50.3% | 5.5 | 44.5% |
| Josh Boone | 45.6% | 3.1 | 56.1% |
| Reggie Evans | 46.7% | 3.2 | 56.3% |
| Emeka Okafor | 57.0% | 4.6 | 57.1% |
| Kwame Brown | 40.8% | 2.6 | 57.1% |
| Ben Wallace | 42.6% | 2.3 | 59.9% |
| Andrew Bogut | 58.7% | 4.1 | 60.6% |
| Eddy Curry | 62.3% | 5.1 | 60.6% |
| Nene Hilario | 55.1% | 3.1 | 62.7% |
| Lebron James | 71.2% | 10.3 | 62.7% |
| Tyson Chandler | 59.3% | 3.7 | 62.8% |
| Kenyon Martin | 58.0% | 3.0 | 65.0% |
| Alonzo Mourning | 58.1% | 3.0 | 65.2% |
| Chris Wilcox | 64.5% | 4.0 | 66.2% |
| Michael Ruffin | 39.7% | 1.4 | 66.6% |
| Tracy Mcgrady | 68.4% | 5.4 | 66.7% |
| Renaldo Balkman | 43.2% | 1.5 | 66.9% |
| Andre Brown | 44.9% | 1.5 | 67.3% |
| Jason Maxiell | 63.3% | 3.3 | 67.5% |
It’s not exactly a murder’s row of superstars like in the first table, although Lebron James should really do something about his 71% FT percentage. Maybe it’s just me, but I think “The Chosen One” should be able to hit more than 7 out of 10 free throws.
The point is that percentages are something to think about before you get in the heat of the draft: FT shooters in the 80-85% range can be some of the best in the league when they take enough shots. Make a list of ten guys you can target during a draft if it looks like your team is going to going to need either free throw or field goal percentage help.
Field Goal Percentage
Field goal percentage works in much the same way as free throw percentage, only the number of shots players take is more normally distributed and the difference between actual FG% and EFG% isn’t as great. For example, here are the top 10 EFG% last year.
The Best Fantasy FG Shooters in 07/08
| Player | FG | FGA | EFG |
| Amare Stoudemire | 59.0% | 15.3 | 60.7% |
| Dwight Howard | 59.9% | 11.9 | 58.3% |
| Andrew Bynum | 63.6% | 8.5 | 57.3% |
| Carlos Boozer | 54.7% | 16.0 | 56.2% |
| Tyson Chandler | 62.3% | 7.7 | 55.5% |
| Shaquille O’neal | 59.3% | 9.1 | 55.2% |
| Andris Biedrins | 62.8% | 7.1 | 55.1% |
| Kevin Garnett | 53.9% | 13.9 | 54.2% |
| Monta Ellis | 53.1% | 15.2 | 53.9% |
| Pau Gasol | 53.4% | 13.5 | 53.4% |
And the player with the worst field goal percentage for fantasy purposes last season? That would be Gilbert Arenas, with an EFG% of 38.7%. He was right below Jamal Crawford, Larry Hughes, Stephen Jackson, and Jamaal Tinsley.
For More Info: Effective Free Throw Percentage
Hey guys,
I really love your Effective Field Goal and Free Throw Percentages, I cant wait to use them to get a leg up in my draft (in particular in order to overcome Lebron’s gross FT%)
Have you tried to develop a 3PT% version? I’ve made a few attempts using info and equations from some of the sites you’ve linked on the topic but I’m not yet satisfied as my results seem a little screwy.
In an old article you guys mentioned:
“Everything written about EFT% also applies to EFG%. However, the range of field goal percentages and the number shots attempted from the field (average of 11.5, std dev of 4.2) varies less than the number of free throws attempted (average of 4.2, std dev of 2.3), so EFG% stays fairly close to the standard FG%”
Could it be possible that the reverse is true of E3PT%? That the range of 3 point %’s and the number of 3’s attempted varies a great deal and so therefore E3PT% is wildly different from standard FG%??
Any advice would be great.
Thanks.
T
Comment by T-Time — August 6, 2008 @ 8:46 am
Hey T, thanks for the comment and complement.
So, if I understand you, you play in a league that uses three point percentage as a category? If so, then yes, you should be able to calculate an effective three point percentage for every player. And I think you’re right saying that it should vary even more than free throw percentage, because there are some players who take a lot of threes and some who take none.
To calculate it, first calculate the league average number of threes and league average 3pt percentage for the top 100 three point shooters in the league. I only use the top 100 to get rid of the noise from part time and other players who don’t shoot threes.
Then, take a player’s 3pt percentage and subtract the league average percentage. Multiply that value by the number of threes a player takes per game divided by the league average numbers of three taken a game. Add that number to the league average 3pt percentage to get a player’s E3pt%.
Say a guy shoots 3 threes a game at 40% and the league average is 1.5 threes a game at 35%. His E3pt% would be:
((40% - 35%) * (3 / 1.5)) + 35% = 45%
I hope that’s understandable. Good luck!
Comment by Patrick — August 6, 2008 @ 9:52 am
Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
“I only use the top 100 to get rid of the noise from part time and other players who don’t shoot threes.”
That’s the key right there I think. Because I had been using everybody the league average figure was wayyyyy too low, distorting the results a bit. For the exact reasons you mentioned about players who don’t shoot 3’s.
Thanks for the tip Patrick, I’m off to hit up the spreadsheet again.
T.
Comment by T-Time — August 6, 2008 @ 4:46 pm