Comments on: Fantasy Basketball Draft Tip #2: If you think he’s a sleeper and I think he’s a sleeper, then he’s not a sleeper

By: Patrick

Patrick — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 13:24:41 +0000

Hey Dr. A, thanks for checking in! I hope there are no hard feelings for me using your pick an example. I could have talked about the 25 different times I’ve drafted Darko Milicic, but I was trying to avoid mentioning that embarrassment again.

By: Dr. A

Dr. A — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 08:59:02 +0000

OK, Aldridge was a BIG stretch…I had a competitive team and was not all that upset with Aldridge’s season, but yeah, it was a mistake. And I knew going into making the pick that it might or might not work out. I’m just glad that there is a lesson to be learned here and we can do better next time. God knows I didn’t have Aldridge as a third-round pick over on Rotoworld…Some times the heat of the moment (with no money on the line) can take over…

By: Hawthorne Wingo

Hawthorne Wingo — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 19:47:07 +0000

Dr. A: What a maroon!

By: Patrick

Patrick — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 13:43:04 +0000

I couldn’t put it better myself, dyeyk2000.

By: dyeyk2000

dyeyk2000 — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 17:33:45 +0000

i guess it’s just a matter of setting ceilings. how early are you willing to go with a player? obviously asking for 3rd round production form aldridge last year was a bit of a stretch. it was possible, but it was pushing it.

and just a tip. try not to pick players at the round you THINK they will perform. always try to get a discount with your picks.

for example, if you thought aldridge would perform at 3rd round level last year AT HIS BEST, you shouldn’t pick him at the 3rd round. instead go for someone who can possibly outvalue their 3rd round draft position (ex. last year were baron and camby) . at worse these guys would have given you 3rd round value. at worse aldridge was possibly 6th or 7th round value. always pick at floor value, and then take into account possible gains.

By: Patrick

Patrick — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 15:51:26 +0000

@Nick – you’ve got a nice problem to have, that’s for sure. I kind of agree with Nels, Butler is the best player you mentioned other than Bron. However, Butler happens to play the same position as LeBron and is an injury risk. So, I’d either:

1. Take a risk and go with Butler (maybe trade him for a player at a different position, or
2. Go a little safer with Iverson and lock up your PG spot.
3. or go really safe with Gay or Granger (they should both perform similarly). Iverson will probably be better than both of these guys, but he’s getting a little old and could possibly start declining fast.

By: Nels

Nels — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 12:21:05 +0000

@Nick, it’s either going to be Caron or AI. I don’t think the other 3 you mention are going to outperform those two. On the Big Board, we have Caron at 9 and AI at 11 (I am assuming Iverson, not Iguodala). Since it’s a keeper league, I’d go with Caron, since he’s got about 5 years on Iverson.

By: Nels

Nels — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 12:18:13 +0000

@Karlo, you are close right. That is pretty much the definition of a sleeper. But there are two parts to being a sleeper. The first one is what you mentioned, but the second is that you have to be able to draft the player who is going to be better than last year at a position in the draft lower than where he will end up in the rankings.

Thus, Patrick’s point is that in this era of fantasy sports where information is abundant, players who appear on multiple sleeper lists tend to become overvalued and end up going higher in the draft than they should, so even if they do produce higher than they should, people who’ve drafted them are only getting what they paid for, instead of getting someone who is more valuable than where they were picked.

By: Nick

Nick — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 18:58:50 +0000

Be sure to drink your Ovaltine… Ovaltine?

So I’m in a 10-team daily lineup H2H league with 2 keepers and 6 active roster spots (PG, SG, SF, PF, C, and Util). We use 9 cats: FGM, FTM, 3PT, FG%, R, A, S, B, TO.

My keeper candidates are: LeBron, Caron, AI, Rudy Gay, Steve Nash, and Danny Grainger (yeah, I won the league last year and no, I’m not sure how I ended up with that team having made ZERO trades during the season). I’m definitely holding onto LeBron. Otherwise I have no idea whom to keep. Any thoughts? (Q for both Patrick and Nels).

By: dyeyk2000

dyeyk2000 — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 02:46:31 +0000

me! me! i coined that! i want my own column on it! <3