With Labor Day quickly approaching, fantasy pundits are preparing their rankings, sleepers, busts, and naughty and nice lists like Santa on Christmas Eve. Yet as we all prepare to look ahead, sometimes we can learn more by looking back. A great man once said: those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. I think it was David Hasselhoff.

So, I searched the all knowing internet to look for what people were saying way back in the fall of 07 about the upcoming fantasy basketball season. Then, I ignored all the stuff that made people look smart and I cherry picked all the most embarrassing stuff I could find. Here’s what I found:

Boy, Ray Allen was getting some mad fantasy love before the start of last season. Slam Online ranked Ray Allen as the second best fantasy shooting guard in the league (while leaving Chris Paul off their list of top five fantasy point guards). And our friends at Dropping Dimes drafted Ray Allen in the second round of their annual mock draft. Even this idiot told you to take Allen in the second round. He ended up ranked #52 on the rater. I don’t think Allen will be getting as much love this season.

People love player rankings, which is why you see them everywhere. You’d think that 82games would know a thing or two about projecting player stats. But when you rank the top 100 fantasy players like they did in 2007, you’re bound to have some misses. Some big misses. Again, Ray Allen makes an appearance at #22 on their list. Just scanning the rest of it quickly and I see Stephon Marbury showing up at #70, Boris Diaw at #79, and Ben Wallace at #89.

Basketball Suite 101 only ranked the top 20 players, but hopefully you didn’t draft Jason Kidd at the number 8 spot like they had him ranked. Then again, this idiot was pretty high on J-Kidd too.

Coaching changes are fun! But unless the change involves Don Nelson, try not to put too much weight on how a new coach is going to affect his team. For example, RotoWire felt that the addition of Reggie Theus would mean a big season from Mike Bibby and that Jermaine O’Neal would benefit from playing under O’Brien. Both aren’t even on their respective teams anymore.

The draft/avoid sleeper/dud list is always a conversation generator (which is why we like to do them), but even with Vulcan like logic, shit is going to happen that is out of our control.

Fantasy Basketball Café liked Charlie Villanueva as a super sleeper going into last season. A “David West in-the-making type of player.” Unfortunately, a little Yi got in his way and screwed things up. With Yi gone, maybe this will be a better year for Charlie.

Fantasy Basketball Guy liked Dwyane Wade and Yao Ming going into last season (he was also high both on Chris Paul and Al Jefferson). This year, I think the Ming bandwagon has finally run out of gas (which means he’s going to have a great year, of course).

Fantapedia thought that Monta Ellis was one of the most overrated players in the league (although the rest of their overrated list is pretty good looking back).

Talkin Fantasy Sports had an unfortunate list of sleepers: Darko Milicic, Randy Foye, Jamal Magloire, Charlie Bell, and Jason Maxiell (although Monta Ellis does make an appearance). If you look at the first comment on the post, it’s a GMTR trackback which praises the picks.

However, in terms of the sheer amount of incorrectness, nothing comes close to Risks and Rewards from NBA.com. It’s a tour de force in incorrect predictions and recommendations: Guys on the up: Smush Parker, Brevin Knight, Kendrick Perkins, and Morris Peterson. Don’t draft Al Jefferson or Kevin Durant. Good things were ahead for Matt Barnes. A big comeback year was in store for from Bonzi Wells. Take a long look at Travis Diener and Steve Francis, but make sure to avoid Kenyon Martin at all costs, because he’s going to be a bust…

I’ll let you know when I find the rewards.

(AP Photo/Dusan Vranic, Pool)

I’ve been meaning to link to this for a while… The Grizzles have signed Iranian Center Hamed Haddadi. [via Upside and Motor] As you have probably read somewhere else (I know I’ve seen it a few dozen times), Haddadi was the only player to average a double-double (16.6 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.6 blocks) in the Beijing Olympics. Evidently, he also counts The Horse Whisperer and Frida among his favorite movies.

I guess with Kwame Brown leaving for Detroit, the Grizz were scared they’d look like some fantasy team that waited too late to draft their Centers when they threw out Darko and Marc Gasol as their big men tandem. After seeing Marc play in the Olympics and Darko play in the NBA, I can understand why they’d take a shot in the dark chance. Upside and Motor said:

Not the most polished offensive player in the world, but his Olympic stats in terms of rebounds and blocks speak for themselves.

DraftExpress says he’s out of shape, and I can’t honestly contradict that since I didn’t see him plan in the Olympics. But if Darko plays the same 23 minutes he did last season, Haddadi will probably only be required to play 15-20 minutes per game (Gasol, Hakim Warrick, and rookie Darrell Arthur will fill in the gaps).

My official analysis is the Haddadi will probably be worth drafting as a late round breakout potential player. With the way he played in the Olympics (at least judging from his stats) there are probably people who will take him hoping that he’ll be a double-double player in the NBA. If you’re here, you probably know to be more conservative than that already. But, he is 7′ 2″ and the totally cliched says is “You can’t teach height.” I can see Haddadi become a good center in the NBA after a year or two of playing against the higher level of competition, but I am very skeptical that it will happen right away.

Okay, I guess he kind of has to after basically being injured and proceeding to play in the Olympics. According to the AP via Yahoo, it sounds like he’ll need the same kind of surgery that Monta Ellis already had. I guess we’ll have to wait for an official prognosis before we adjust the Big Board (where he is currently ranked at 22.50) again. I can’t see him dropping out the Top 100 Fantasy Basketball Players if he has surgery soon, but the longer he waits, the more his value will drop. Like I said, more analysis when we have a prognosis.

If you’re a big fan of the GMTR player rater or of ranking players in general, listen up.

I love our player rater, but I’d be the first to admit that my technical skills are not quite up to the level of my bow hunting skills. So, while the math I used to generate the rankings is the best that is and ever was, the usability of the stuff consists of me throwing something up on Google and letting people run wild with it.

And while fun – and Chad – is the name of the game in fantasy basketball, if you’re looking to take in the next in utterly dominating every league you play in, well, the guys over at Fantasy Hoops Strategy have created an awesome fantasy ranking tool to do that. Here’s what they have to say on their site.

We were just like you - tired of showing up for the fantasy draft with the same magazines and print-outs as the rest of the managers, and making the same mistakes as the rest. After all, how does that publication understand YOUR scoring and YOUR league?

We worked out the hard calculations so you don’t have to.

Other sites offer cheat sheets. But that’s short-term fix and not a long-term solution. Instead, we offer a framework. We offer a set of principles, guidelines, and (dare we say) formulas, that can help us win our league, regardless of the rules number or players

This framework is provided via an excel based app that is fully customizable for your league. You can change the number of teams in the league, the players per team, the scoring system (points vs. categories), the types of stat categories to include and the number of starters per team at each position. The output not only ranks players overall, but it also ranks players by each position, making it the ultimate draft cheat sheet.

Oh, and I almost forgot to mention, the stats are updated automatically and you can change the year of stats you want to rate. This means that your cryogenically frozen body will be using this program when Shawn Kemp VI is dominating the Federated Martian Basketball League in 2108. Good stuff, I know.

The program currently sells for $20 and having taken a look at it, I’d honesty say it’s worth every penny. That being said – I still wanted a better deal for you guys. Because GMTR readers rock the Kasbah on a regular basis, we have negotiated a special deal for you. Between now and September 5th, GMTR readers can buy the program for $10. That’s like… … … half off!

If you are interested, you can visit their site or click on the button at the bottom of this post and type the phrase: “GMTRDEAL” into the discount code spot at checkout to get half off the purchase. The code is good until September 5th. And if you buy the program, I’m sure if for some reason it doesn’t work for you or you are not satisfied with it, the guys at Fantasy Basketball Strategy will refund your money.

If you’re still unsure or need more information before dropping today’s lunch money on this project, you can find out more information on the Fantasy Basketball Strategy FAQ or by checking out this youtube video.

If you don’t have the scratch to spare, don’t worry, the GMTR rater will be around again this year in its full Google spreadsheet glory. But if you do have some extra cash burning a hole in your pocket, I think you’re really going to like this program.

Please note a couple things:

1) You’ll need at least a basic understanding of excel as well as the actual program to use this spreadsheet (I’m not sure if it’s compatible with the open office stuff). But, if you’ve found your way to this dark crevasse of the internets, you can probably handle a little pointing and clicking in excel.

2) Between this and the GMTR fantasy magazine coming out in September, you might be frightened that Nels and I are trying to make GMTR into a money making operation. However, rest assured that this is not the case. GMTR makes almost nothing and we plan on keeping it that way! Plus, I get nothing if you purchase the Fantasy Hoops Ranking Spreadsheet. Yep, not one cent. I’m simply directing you to this program because I think it’s that damn good and I’ll think you’ll like it.

To buy the program, click on the buy now button and don’t forget to use the special super secret code: GMTRDEAL

Well, there goes that highly ranked Point Guard:

The Warriors announced Wednesday that Ellis will miss at least three months after undergoing surgery on his left ankle.

Scott Sargent at DroppingDimes gets the square for sending me an email about the injury.

Here’s what I say… if Monta is out for 3 months (starting today) that’s Nov. 27th. In Scott’s quote from Marc Stein, they say possibly 4 months. Obviously he’s going to move down the draft board, but if it’s November 27th, he’ll miss about 15 games. That’s 18.29% of the season. For those in H2H leagues, it might not be as big a deal, but for roto leagues, that is a straight 18% decrease in value. If he’s gone till the end of December, it’s around 30 games. Which simple math tells us is 36% of the season. I’m going to assign rough estimates of 64 at the “best case” end and 120 at the “worst case” end. I realize that’s a large spectrum, but right now on the GMTR Big Board I’m being optimistic and leaving him at 64.

As for the rest of the Warriors…

Does this mean it’s time to look at Marco Belinelli again?

No… like Sarge, we’re going to go with Marcus Williams as the top choice for PG while Monta is out. Of course, Kelenna Azubuike, Corey Maggette, and Stephen Jackson all get increased scoring opportunities during the injured one’s absence. I’ve moved them up a few spots on the Big Board, but with several players splitting the potential for only a temporary increase in stats, it’s hard to say if any of them is going to be a big winner here.

Because everybody loves lists!

I tried to come up with 10 guys, but really these are the only ones who stood out as either men-of-the-minute because of what they did last season, or are guys who I feel are perennially overvalued and taken higher than they should be. Maybe I’m just being pessimistic, but these are the guys that I probably won’t be drafting because someone else is likely to overpay for them. Feel free to add to the list in the comments if you think I’ve overlooked some guys who won’t be overlooked on draft day.

Note: I would still draft these guys if I felt like I could get good value for my pick. I just think that in drafts this year, these players won’t be around by the time I feel like they should be taken.

7. Danny Granger - There’s no better way for fantasy basketball managers to look like they know what they’re doing than to pick last year’s hot player. Granger leads off the list because he’ll still be an awesome fantasy player this season… I just feel like I need to temper some expectations.

6. Yao Ming - Yes, he’s a dominant player at a relatively scarce position. But he’s also played an average of 53 games over the past 3 years, and he’s banged up from the Olympics, and has a new (but crazy) teammate to take some of the pressure off of him on both ends of the floor. Of course, Head-to-Head managers need not worry about Ming as much as Rotisserie managers. But all should still be wary.

5. Jamario Moon - From off the chart to #59 on the Player Rater. Another example of jumping on the hot player bandwagon. Moon will be a decent fantasy player this season, but with Jermaine O’Neal on the Raptors, it will be hard for him to reach the heights of last year.

4. Josh Smith - Smith finished at #38 on the Player Rater, making him a find 3rd round selection, but you know someone is going to go for him in the 2nd. You just know it.

3. Dwight Howard - Read this closely: #73 on the Player Rater. Yes, he’ll play 82 games for you. Yes, he will also kill any chance you have of winning the FT% category. For H2H, that’s probably an acceptable risk. Just remember that after you pick Howard in the 3rd round, you must ignore the free throw shooting of every other player on the board when drafting. The only possible exception is if you already have Kobe on your team, and you’re planning on taking Corey Maggette later (and considering Maggette should be drafted in the low 60’s where Howard should also be drafted, it’s kind of a big risk you’re taking there).

2. Deron Williams - Patrick and I have him slotted slightly higher than his #39 ranking on the Player Rater from 07-08. But I think people kind of imagine him as a poor man’s Chris Paul, and since only one person will get Paul, others will want to go with Williams in the second round.

1. Michael Beasley - This is just the Youth Tax in it’s most obvious incarnation. Yes, Beasley is going to be a good rookie. Probably even Rookie of the Year. But he’s still the 3rd option behind Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion. And the Heat have a capable PF in Udonis Haslem, who played 36 minutes per game last season. Someone is probably going to take Beasley before the 8th round, and you can let them have him.

Yup, the Carnival is almost ready for an AARP card as “a stern warning” hosts the 59th edition of the Carnival of the NBA with a short, but sweet Joker homage. The rest of the blog is good too, so check it out when you get the chance.