I like them young and I bet you do too. Hmm. What? I’m talking about NBA players and fantasy drafts (especially if my wife is reading this). NBA rookies - and to a lesser extent other young unproven players - always seem to be in demand during fantasy drafts. I believe it’s partly because they offer us the hope of limitless fantasy potential. This potential is spurred on by 1) the actual NBA draft, in which draft experts incessantly talk-up players and constantly feed us their best case scenarios for every draft pick, 2) the summer league, where we hear about rookies running wild on other rookies and career D-Leaguers, and 3) the fact that rookies lack a baseline level of performance in the NBA that we can use to develop realistic expectations. Basically, we have all summer to get excited about how awesome the new crop of rookies are going to be come next year.

However, all this potential comes at a cost and we often pay a large premium in order to get it. For example – here are last year’s rookies, their average draft position in ESPN fantasy leagues (it’s the best I could find) and where they finished the season on the 9-cat GMTR player rater.

Kevin Durant – (drafted at 43 / finished the year ranked at 87)
Al Horford – (99 / 96)
Mike Conley - (102 / 219)
Jeff Green - (113 / 252)
Yi Jianlian - (106 / 202)
Corey Brewer - (110 / 247)
Joakim Noah - (109 / 168)

See a pattern? With the exception of Kid Delicious, it looks like after pick 100 or so (probably around the time a lot of cheat sheets end), people start going Coo Coo for Coco Puffs on the rookies. And other than Al Horford, every single one of those rookies disappointed.

And it wasn’t just 2007. Here were the top five picks in the 2006 draft (along with their final ranking on the player rater in 06/07):

Andrea Bargnani (151)
LaMarcus Aldridge (147)
Adam Morrison (309)
Tyrus Thomas (267)
Shelden Williams (231)

I don’t have data on their average fantasy draft position, but I don’t think you could make a case that any of these guys ended up being great draft picks (on average, anyway) during their rookie seasons. Bargnani and Aldridge had some value, but it was best left to be picked up off waivers.

Tip #3 does not mean that you can’t hit the jackpot with a rookie. In addition to Horford, who played up to his pick last year, Chris Paul finished his rookie season ranked #15 on the GMTR rater. I don’t know where he was drafted, but I think it’s safe to say that it was a hell of a lot lower than 15. Lebron James finished the 2004 season ranked at #22. Again, I don’t remember where he was going in drafts, but if my memory serves, I remember him generally fulfilling expectations.

However, the hit/miss ratio on rookies swings heavily towards the miss and as the lists above show, the misses are generally large. Maybe you’re some kind of savant that can predict the one rookie who will break out this year, but I have no idea. That’s why, with the exception of keeper leagues, I almost always avoid drafting rookies. Instead, give me the rotting corpse of Sam Cassell any day.