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Fantasy Basketball Tip #3: Avoid the Youth Tax

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Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy, Fantasy Draft Guide Mojo 2008
Posted on: August 5th, 2008

I like them young and I bet you do too. Hmm. What? I’m talking about NBA players and fantasy drafts (especially if my wife is reading this). NBA rookies – and to a lesser extent other young unproven players – always seem to be in demand during fantasy drafts. I believe it’s partly because they offer us the hope of limitless fantasy potential. This potential is spurred on by 1) the actual NBA draft, in which draft experts incessantly talk-up players and constantly feed us their best case scenarios for every draft pick, 2) the summer league, where we hear about rookies running wild on other rookies and career D-Leaguers, and 3) the fact that rookies lack a baseline level of performance in the NBA that we can use to develop realistic expectations. Basically, we have all summer to get excited about how awesome the new crop of rookies are going to be come next year.

However, all this potential comes at a cost and we often pay a large premium in order to get it. For example – here are last year’s rookies, their average draft position in ESPN fantasy leagues (it’s the best I could find) and where they finished the season on the 9-cat GMTR player rater.

Kevin Durant – (drafted at 43 / finished the year ranked at 87)
Al Horford – (99 / 96)
Mike Conley – (102 / 219)
Jeff Green – (113 / 252)
Yi Jianlian – (106 / 202)
Corey Brewer – (110 / 247)
Joakim Noah – (109 / 168)

See a pattern? With the exception of Kid Delicious, it looks like after pick 100 or so (probably around the time a lot of cheat sheets end), people start going Coo Coo for Coco Puffs on the rookies. And other than Al Horford, every single one of those rookies disappointed.

And it wasn’t just 2007. Here were the top five picks in the 2006 draft (along with their final ranking on the player rater in 06/07):

Andrea Bargnani (151)
LaMarcus Aldridge (147)
Adam Morrison (309)
Tyrus Thomas (267)
Shelden Williams (231)

I don’t have data on their average fantasy draft position, but I don’t think you could make a case that any of these guys ended up being great draft picks (on average, anyway) during their rookie seasons. Bargnani and Aldridge had some value, but it was best left to be picked up off waivers.

Tip #3 does not mean that you can’t hit the jackpot with a rookie. In addition to Horford, who played up to his pick last year, Chris Paul finished his rookie season ranked #15 on the GMTR rater. I don’t know where he was drafted, but I think it’s safe to say that it was a hell of a lot lower than 15. Lebron James finished the 2004 season ranked at #22. Again, I don’t remember where he was going in drafts, but if my memory serves, I remember him generally fulfilling expectations.

However, the hit/miss ratio on rookies swings heavily towards the miss and as the lists above show, the misses are generally large. Maybe you’re some kind of savant that can predict the one rookie who will break out this year, but I have no idea. That’s why, with the exception of keeper leagues, I almost always avoid drafting rookies. Instead, give me the rotting corpse of Sam Cassell any day.

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  • Leonard

    Adam Morrison (309)is the reason why I’ll NEVER draft (although I might grab them of the wire) I think I grabbed him on 3 out of 4 teams and I’m sure it was no lower then a 7th round pick.

  • dyeyk2000

    at the other end of the spectrum.. you also have the veteran discount theory.

    i mean how many time have we heard that this is the year that jason kidd, marcus camby or tim duncan will slow down? granted that it may have finally happened last year and may well carry on this year.. those discussions went on for a few years before it finally caught up with those veterans. again this is another factor that is difficult to gauge. this time you are accounting for the inevitable decline of a veteran as opposed to the limitless potential of a young one.

  • http://www.givemetherock.com Patrick

    I’m a big fan of the veteran discount theory… Although Chris Webber did screw me over for about 5 years in a row.

  • T-Time

    Hey guys – not spamming my comment, just didn’t want it to get lost on an old post.

    I really love your Effective Field Goal and Free Throw Percentages, I cant wait to use them to get a leg up in my draft (in particular in order to overcome Lebron’s gross FT%)

    Have you tried to develop a 3PT% version? I’ve made a few attempts using info and equations from some of the sites you’ve linked on the topic but I’m not yet satisfied as my results seem a little screwy.

    In an old article you guys mentioned:

    “Everything written about EFT% also applies to EFG%. However, the range of field goal percentages and the number shots attempted from the field (average of 11.5, std dev of 4.2) varies less than the number of free throws attempted (average of 4.2, std dev of 2.3), so EFG% stays fairly close to the standard FG%”

    Could it be possible that the reverse is true of E3PT%? That the range of 3 point %’s and the number of 3′s attempted varies a great deal and so therefore E3PT% is wildly different from standard FG%??

    Any advice would be great.

    Thanks.

    T

  • bucko

    Great article and dyeyk2000 had a great point. I am prone to let some veterans slide. I have already caught myself saying I won’t draft Iverson because I think this is the year he falls off. I’ll try to be careful with that line of thinking.

    As far as this draft goes, Rose and Beasley should probably be drafted because they are guaranteed starting spots, anyone else is dicey. Even Rose and Beasley will most likely be drafted too high. I’ve seen them in some top fifty lists already.

  • http://www.addictedtohoops.blogspot.com SamiA

    Hey I like to the site. I have my own bball page. If you add mine to your blogroll I’ll do the same for yours on my page.

    http://www.addictedtohoops.blogspot.com

  • grover

    As I recall, Rondo was one of the better draft/rank rookies out of the past few years.

    He sure came in handy with his silly rebound & steal numbers down the stretch!

  • http://www.givemetherock.com Nels

    SamiA, got you on there now.

  • Hawthorne Wingo

    The youth-tax idea is spot-on. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t get a major boost with a well-selected rookie or two. Years back I had rookies Vince Carter and Paul Pierce, selected way late, and won it all. And I had Dwayne Wade as a rook, and again won it all.

    A general guideline is to avoid taking even highly touted rookies in the first 7 or 8 rounds, then roll the dice on guys who have big upside-surprise potential. If they pay off, it’s like winning the lottery. If not, you can always troll the waiver wire for guys with late-round value or better. E.g. this year I’m gonna take Kevin Love way before I take Nick Collison, and Gerald Westbrook way before I take Anthony Carter, and if they don’t work out I can always find guys like Collison and Carter to replace them on my roster.

    That said, given the choice, a big-upside guy with a little seasoning is almost always preferable to rookie rawness. For example, this year I’ll target guys like Thad Young and Jamario Moon before any rookie other than Beasley.