Give Me The Rock
this is fantasy basketball
Tip #3 discussed the youth tax, which is the theory that rookies are often drafted well above the round where they should go based upon their actual performances. The mirror image of that idea is the veteran discount theory. Now I’m blatantly ripping off the name of this theory and the general idea of it from reader dyeyk2000, so, thanks man. But while I’ve never had a snappy name for the veteran discount, I’ve always been a big fan of drafting iffy veterans and had good results with it. That is, if you call winning leagues good results.
No one wants to draft a player on the wrong end of his career curve, especially if the guy is on a Big Ben Wallace like decline. Therefore, it seems like the safe and easy thing to ignore players who we feel for some reason are too old, too likely to get hurt, or are generally in for a bad year.
But, unlike the rookies who hold so much promise but rarely live up to expectations (at least their first year), it’s usually the creaky old vet who will put in a solid – if a bit boring – year, provided his knees don’t explode or he doesn’t pull a Stephon Marbury and joins a planet that only exists inside his own head.
While veterans can often give you some of the best draft day value, there are specific types of guys that have the greatest chance for success.
The Previously Injured Vet: This type of player usually holds the most promise, provided you can identify who they are. Avoid the always injured vet (Grant Hill) and the currently injured vet (Yao Ming) and you should be in good shape. Someone like Jermaine O’Neal is a good candidate despite increasingly inching towards always being injured. He missed a good portion of last season with a knee injury and there are a lot of people down on his game right now (which I can understand). But, if he is healthy and can play up to his potential on the Raptors this season, he’ll be a 20 and 10 player.
One word of caution: be careful not to overpay for someone like O’Neal. Don’t draft him in the second round just because you think he’ll play like a second rounder this season. The point is to draft him low if you get the chance because of the injury risk you’ll be taking with him.
More of the walking wounded: Dwyane Wade, Gilbert Arenas
The Mysteriously Underperforming Vet: This guy typically scares the crap out of people because, well, he sucked last season. And unlike the injured vet he doesn’t have an excuse to explain his poor performance. Kirk Hinrich fits that description spot on. After four years of being a top 10 guard in the league, Hinrich’s scoring fell off the map last year and he ended the season ranked at #90 on the GMTR player rater. Upon close inspection, it appears that Hinrich’s fall was almost solely due a decrease in minutes per game, which affected his counting stats across the board. If you think that Hinrich will go back to seeing 35 minutes a game, you’ve got yourself a solid guard that you’ll be able to get at a discount.
But watch out for: The player who underperforms because he’s toast, aka Ben Wallace or was never what people thought he was to begin with, like Boris Diaw. Unfortunately it’s tough to call this one in advance, so occasionally you’ll get draft that lemon. Or incredible shrinking Ben Wallace, as it were.
Other underperformers: Zach Randolph, Tayshaun Prince, Charlie Villanueva, Eddy Curry
The Straight-Up Crazy Vet: Crazy always comes cheap. Did you know that Ron Artest finished last season ranked #20 on the rater? Do you know anyone that will be taking Artest in the 2nd round this year? Hell no. Besides his tendency to miss a lot of games, he’s also insane, which isn’t the best trait to have in a player. I’ve drafted Artest on a number of occasions, sometimes with great results, like in 06/07, sometimes with very, very bad results, like in 2004.
Other people I wouldn’t want to be stuck in an elevator with: Stephen Jackson, Stephon Marbury
The Dust in the Wind Vet: The lowest risk/reward of the veterans, but they often end up more valuable than the rookies being drafted before them in the later rounds. These guys are old and their game looks it, but they’re still in the league for a reason and they usually do enough of the little things to be a decent value fantasy pick. If you’re in a league with daily changes, it often pays to plug and play these type of players when the situation calls for it.
Other players that smell like cats and Ovaltine: Kenyon Martin, Derek Fisher, Jerry Stackhouse, Brent Barry
The This Year Everything Will Be Different Vet: Wow, look at Kwame Brown, he’s practicing hard this off season… Darko will be more comfortable on the Grizzles this year… Don’t count out Darius Miles.
Probably want to stay away from these guys.
One final word on drafting the more risky veterans. Whether you drafted them high or low, if you’ve taken a risk on a player and they’ve fallen off a cliff or started just as crappy as they finished the year prior, don’t be afraid to drop or trade these guys at the beginning of the season. It will hurt, but sometimes the risk doesn’t pay off and you don’t need to be dragging Kwame Brown around like an anchor on your team for three months before you decide it’s not going to work out.
If I’ve missed any type of veteran that you think make good picks on draft day, hit up the comments and let us know who you will be drafting this year.
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