Because everybody loves lists!

I tried to come up with 10 guys, but really these are the only ones who stood out as either men-of-the-minute because of what they did last season, or are guys who I feel are perennially overvalued and taken higher than they should be. Maybe I’m just being pessimistic, but these are the guys that I probably won’t be drafting because someone else is likely to overpay for them. Feel free to add to the list in the comments if you think I’ve overlooked some guys who won’t be overlooked on draft day.

Note: I would still draft these guys if I felt like I could get good value for my pick. I just think that in drafts this year, these players won’t be around by the time I feel like they should be taken.

7. Danny Granger - There’s no better way for fantasy basketball managers to look like they know what they’re doing than to pick last year’s hot player. Granger leads off the list because he’ll still be an awesome fantasy player this season… I just feel like I need to temper some expectations.

6. Yao Ming - Yes, he’s a dominant player at a relatively scarce position. But he’s also played an average of 53 games over the past 3 years, and he’s banged up from the Olympics, and has a new (but crazy) teammate to take some of the pressure off of him on both ends of the floor. Of course, Head-to-Head managers need not worry about Ming as much as Rotisserie managers. But all should still be wary.

5. Jamario Moon - From off the chart to #59 on the Player Rater. Another example of jumping on the hot player bandwagon. Moon will be a decent fantasy player this season, but with Jermaine O’Neal on the Raptors, it will be hard for him to reach the heights of last year.

4. Josh Smith - Smith finished at #38 on the Player Rater, making him a find 3rd round selection, but you know someone is going to go for him in the 2nd. You just know it.

3. Dwight Howard - Read this closely: #73 on the Player Rater. Yes, he’ll play 82 games for you. Yes, he will also kill any chance you have of winning the FT% category. For H2H, that’s probably an acceptable risk. Just remember that after you pick Howard in the 3rd round, you must ignore the free throw shooting of every other player on the board when drafting. The only possible exception is if you already have Kobe on your team, and you’re planning on taking Corey Maggette later (and considering Maggette should be drafted in the low 60’s where Howard should also be drafted, it’s kind of a big risk you’re taking there).

2. Deron Williams - Patrick and I have him slotted slightly higher than his #39 ranking on the Player Rater from 07-08. But I think people kind of imagine him as a poor man’s Chris Paul, and since only one person will get Paul, others will want to go with Williams in the second round.

1. Michael Beasley - This is just the Youth Tax in it’s most obvious incarnation. Yes, Beasley is going to be a good rookie. Probably even Rookie of the Year. But he’s still the 3rd option behind Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion. And the Heat have a capable PF in Udonis Haslem, who played 36 minutes per game last season. Someone is probably going to take Beasley before the 8th round, and you can let them have him.