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Top 7 Players who will be taken too soon

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Categorized as: Author: Nels, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Draft Guide Mojo 2008
Posted on: August 25th, 2008

Because everybody loves lists!

I tried to come up with 10 guys, but really these are the only ones who stood out as either men-of-the-minute because of what they did last season, or are guys who I feel are perennially overvalued and taken higher than they should be. Maybe I’m just being pessimistic, but these are the guys that I probably won’t be drafting because someone else is likely to overpay for them. Feel free to add to the list in the comments if you think I’ve overlooked some guys who won’t be overlooked on draft day.

Note: I would still draft these guys if I felt like I could get good value for my pick. I just think that in drafts this year, these players won’t be around by the time I feel like they should be taken.

7. Danny Granger – There’s no better way for fantasy basketball managers to look like they know what they’re doing than to pick last year’s hot player. Granger leads off the list because he’ll still be an awesome fantasy player this season… I just feel like I need to temper some expectations.

6. Yao Ming – Yes, he’s a dominant player at a relatively scarce position. But he’s also played an average of 53 games over the past 3 years, and he’s banged up from the Olympics, and has a new (but crazy) teammate to take some of the pressure off of him on both ends of the floor. Of course, Head-to-Head managers need not worry about Ming as much as Rotisserie managers. But all should still be wary.

5. Jamario Moon – From off the chart to #59 on the Player Rater. Another example of jumping on the hot player bandwagon. Moon will be a decent fantasy player this season, but with Jermaine O’Neal on the Raptors, it will be hard for him to reach the heights of last year.

4. Josh Smith – Smith finished at #38 on the Player Rater, making him a find 3rd round selection, but you know someone is going to go for him in the 2nd. You just know it.

3. Dwight Howard – Read this closely: #73 on the Player Rater. Yes, he’ll play 82 games for you. Yes, he will also kill any chance you have of winning the FT% category. For H2H, that’s probably an acceptable risk. Just remember that after you pick Howard in the 3rd round, you must ignore the free throw shooting of every other player on the board when drafting. The only possible exception is if you already have Kobe on your team, and you’re planning on taking Corey Maggette later (and considering Maggette should be drafted in the low 60’s where Howard should also be drafted, it’s kind of a big risk you’re taking there).

2. Deron Williams – Patrick and I have him slotted slightly higher than his #39 ranking on the Player Rater from 07-08. But I think people kind of imagine him as a poor man’s Chris Paul, and since only one person will get Paul, others will want to go with Williams in the second round.

1. Michael Beasley – This is just the Youth Tax in it’s most obvious incarnation. Yes, Beasley is going to be a good rookie. Probably even Rookie of the Year. But he’s still the 3rd option behind Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion. And the Heat have a capable PF in Udonis Haslem, who played 36 minutes per game last season. Someone is probably going to take Beasley before the 8th round, and you can let them have him.

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  • With regards to Deron Williams, he is particularly hurt by turnovers. He was tied for 3rd in the league last year with 3.4 a game. He's a much better draft pick if you're not playing in a league that counts TOs. Not #9, but a second rounder. But in a TO league, I'd stay away.
  • bucko - good point, thanks. With FSPI, I do look at the list and say, for example, "Baron Davis is #5, but I'm still nervous about his health history" or "J-Rich is 8th, but I just don't like him that much" kind of thing.

    I will also consider GMTR's rater and basketballmonster.com, as you suggested.
  • bucko
    Jeff, FSPI doesn't count turnovers, most leagues do. FSPI also puts a lot of weight into games played in the last season. There are many players that got hurt last season, but have been consistently healthy in their career, i.e Shawn Marion that are way too low on FSPI. The player rater here is pretty solid, so is the one at basketballmonster.com.
  • Do you think Deron Williams is overhyped? According to FSPI (combined) for last season, Williams is 9th on the list. Sure, you take injuries and such into account for next season (i.e. Elton Brand), but using FSPI in my predraft rankings has worked well for me so far.

    Agreed on Calderon and Yao, though.
  • Good thoughts here; I will say, however, that Josh Smith is well worth a second-round pick. I took him in the 2nd last season in 2 of my leagues... and I won all three of my leagues.
  • terrance
    i think d howard should be #1. tmac was a good choice from dyeyk. I like calderoon, but wont take him unless im drafting late in the 3rd. Hes not a sleeper and i think you could find a more valuable piece to your team in the 3rd. Lots of PGs you could get later. Calderon was valuable last year because you could pick up a top 20 player from the FA pool. Now hes a top 36 pick and that will diminish the impact he had from a season ago.

    The calderons, david west, kevin martin, boris diaws happen every season! What makes it tough to grab them is one desire to hold on to their own sleepers that they drafted. Sometimes a manager believes so strongly in one of their sleepers ( swift, tyrus thomas, name someone else) that they cant cut ties thinking that theyll be that manager who cut the prized pickup of the season. Trust me I know, I dropped Al jefferson about 2 weeks before he blew up in beantown 2 or 3 years ago for ahem.....jorge garbahosa. It wasnt a mistake on my part, garbahosa waas getting the minutes and jefferson wasnt. So have a short leash on your 12th and 13th round picks and be quick to grab anyone who shows promise before october 5th. Thats a good date to judge players. The teams are three games in and rotations are getting set. The 5th is too late in a private league though, you have to be on top of the game in a private league. say october 2nd or 3rd lol
  • bucko
    I agree completely with numbers 1-6. Now number 7 I think you couldn't be more wrong. Lets take a deeper look into the awesomeness that is Danny Granger(I admittedly might have a little man crush on this guy).

    1. Danny Granger finished 17th last year.

    2. If you look at the time after Jermaine O'Neal was out of the picture, Granger ranked 5th overall in the last 90 days of the season with per game numbers of 22.3 points, 2.6 threes, 6.3 boards, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.1 blocks.

    3. O'Neal is completely gone

    4. T.J Ford was added to the Pacers giving Granger a legit point guard.

    5. Granger has gotten better each year he has been in the NBA.

    Now, knowing these facts I can't see how Granger could possibly be worse than he was last year. He does have the potential to be much better, he showed that in the last 3 months of the season.

    Granger is projecting as a mid-second round pick in drafts. He is being drafted in a conservative spot, definitely not to high.

    You call him "last year's hot player" as if he has been in the league a dozen years and put up a career year or contract year or something. This is not the case, Granger is a young player that is developing into a stud in the NBA. Last year was the first year he was "The Guy" in Indiana for the entire season.
  • Tmac! Yes!

    Calderon might be taken too high since I'm sure people have high expectations... but at the same time, he could meet those expectations, so I'm not ready to put him with the rest of these guys.

    I've actually been getting negative feedback about having Bynum ranked so high on the Big Board and his write up in the Draft Guide, so I don't feel like he's overly hyped at this point. I'm guessing that a lot of people feel he won't be as good as last season now that Pau Gasol will be on the court at the same time.
  • dyeyk2000
    How about:

    tmac - always has been picked on his reputation rather than on production

    calderon - frankly i don't know where to slot him this year. he's gonna be good but how good?

    bynum - oh gosh everybody so wants to ride on this train right now. potential boom or bust player right here.
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