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August 31, 2008

Looking Back: Fearless Predictions from the Summer of 07

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Filed under: Author: Patrick, Diatribes, Fantasy Draft Cheatsheet 2007 — Patrick @ 4:47 pm



With Labor Day quickly approaching, fantasy pundits are preparing their rankings, sleepers, busts, and naughty and nice lists like Santa on Christmas Eve. Yet as we all prepare to look ahead, sometimes we can learn more by looking back. A great man once said: those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. I think it was David Hasselhoff.

So, I searched the all knowing internet to look for what people were saying way back in the fall of 07 about the upcoming fantasy basketball season. Then, I ignored all the stuff that made people look smart and I cherry picked all the most embarrassing stuff I could find. Here’s what I found:

Boy, Ray Allen was getting some mad fantasy love before the start of last season. Slam Online ranked Ray Allen as the second best fantasy shooting guard in the league (while leaving Chris Paul off their list of top five fantasy point guards). And our friends at Dropping Dimes drafted Ray Allen in the second round of their annual mock draft. Even this idiot told you to take Allen in the second round. He ended up ranked #52 on the rater. I don’t think Allen will be getting as much love this season.

People love player rankings, which is why you see them everywhere. You’d think that 82games would know a thing or two about projecting player stats. But when you rank the top 100 fantasy players like they did in 2007, you’re bound to have some misses. Some big misses. Again, Ray Allen makes an appearance at #22 on their list. Just scanning the rest of it quickly and I see Stephon Marbury showing up at #70, Boris Diaw at #79, and Ben Wallace at #89.

Basketball Suite 101 only ranked the top 20 players, but hopefully you didn’t draft Jason Kidd at the number 8 spot like they had him ranked. Then again, this idiot was pretty high on J-Kidd too.

Coaching changes are fun! But unless the change involves Don Nelson, try not to put too much weight on how a new coach is going to affect his team. For example, RotoWire felt that the addition of Reggie Theus would mean a big season from Mike Bibby and that Jermaine O’Neal would benefit from playing under O’Brien. Both aren’t even on their respective teams anymore.

The draft/avoid sleeper/dud list is always a conversation generator (which is why we like to do them), but even with Vulcan like logic, shit is going to happen that is out of our control.

Fantasy Basketball Café liked Charlie Villanueva as a super sleeper going into last season. A “David West in-the-making type of player.” Unfortunately, a little Yi got in his way and screwed things up. With Yi gone, maybe this will be a better year for Charlie.

Fantasy Basketball Guy liked Dwyane Wade and Yao Ming going into last season (he was also high both on Chris Paul and Al Jefferson). This year, I think the Ming bandwagon has finally run out of gas (which means he’s going to have a great year, of course).

Fantapedia thought that Monta Ellis was one of the most overrated players in the league (although the rest of their overrated list is pretty good looking back).

Talkin Fantasy Sports had an unfortunate list of sleepers: Darko Milicic, Randy Foye, Jamal Magloire, Charlie Bell, and Jason Maxiell (although Monta Ellis does make an appearance). If you look at the first comment on the post, it’s a GMTR trackback which praises the picks.

However, in terms of the sheer amount of incorrectness, nothing comes close to Risks and Rewards from NBA.com. It’s a tour de force in incorrect predictions and recommendations: Guys on the up: Smush Parker, Brevin Knight, Kendrick Perkins, and Morris Peterson. Don’t draft Al Jefferson or Kevin Durant. Good things were ahead for Matt Barnes. A big comeback year was in store for from Bonzi Wells. Take a long look at Travis Diener and Steve Francis, but make sure to avoid Kenyon Martin at all costs, because he’s going to be a bust…

I’ll let you know when I find the rewards.