More to come. In the mean time, please keep in mind…

Recently, I was lucky enough to participate in a mock draft set up by Jamaal Gilbert from FantasyBasketball.com. The draft pretty much consisted of various basketball bloggers as well as a few guys from FantasyBasketball.com. You’ll need to buy their 2008 fantasy draft guide to see the results of the mock, so while it wouldn’t be right for me to rundown the entire results of the draft, I don’t think I’ll be hunted down and killed if I showed you how my team shaped up.

And – in my humble opinion – it is one of the greatest mock draft teams ever assembled in the history of mock drafting.* The league consisted of 12 teams and was based on a 8-category rotisserie scoring format. It starts 4 G, 4 F, and 1 C. I had the 6th pick in the draft and here is how things shook out for me:

Round/Pick/Player
1.6 Shawn Marion (F MIA)
2.19 Elton Brand (F PHI)
3.30 David West (F NO)
4.43 Chauncey Billups (G DET)
5.54 Manu Ginobili (G SA)
6.67 Gilbert Arenas (G WAS)
7.78 Chris Kaman (C LAC)
8.91 Jason Terry (G DAL)
9.102 Leandro Barbosa (G PHO)
10.115 Jamario Moon (F TOR)
11.126 Drew Gooden (F CHI)
12.139 Grant Hill (F PHO)
13.150 Darko Milicic (C MEM)

Very nice. A couple quick notes about the mock draft:

• I’m still not really sure how Elton Brand fell to me in the second round. Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, and Baron Davis all went in the first, which was an early sign for how the rest of the draft was going to go. I remember Nash going early in the second and then – BAM – there was Brand sitting there at my pick.
• This draft is a great example of why I always go with the best player available for at least the first 3 rounds. After basically drafting 2 power forwards with my first two picks, David West was still available for me in the third. But, was it really smart to take a third PF? Chauncey Billups was available and was a good value at 30. I thought about taking him at that spot. In the end, I went with West and Billups was still available in the 4th.
• The one critique you could make against my team is the Manu Ginobili/Gilbert Arenas risks in the 5th and 6th round. In a perfect world, it’d make the most sense to draft one of those guys rather than both. But, Arenas in the 6th was impossible to pass up. Forty games out of Arenas makes him worth that 6th round pick.
• You can basically ignore my last three picks. Starting in the 11th round, I actually wanted to draft Ronnie Brewer. But CBS was being a little bitch and wouldn’t let me draft anymore guards (even though I only had 5 in a league that starts 4). By the 13th round, not only couldn’t I select a guard, but I couldn’t select a forward either. So, Darko it was (sorry Eddy Curry). So, while my team seems like it is a little weak in the guard area (especially given Arenas), if CBS didn’t interfere with my draft I’d actually have Ronnie Brewer to fill in for me while Arenas was out.

*No, I’m not really a megalomaniac and, yes, pretty much everyone loves their own draft before the season starts, but I’m usually fairly realistic with my fantasy teams. For example, Nels and I are participating in a mock draft over at Full Court Press Fantasy Basketball, where I would charitably say my draft up to this point has been adequate. Andrew Bynum in the 3rd ? Oy… I wish I could take that back.

Since it’s been pointed out in the comments already (although, I first got the notice the morning from my Google Alert), Yahoo is now open for fantasy basketball business. And as such, now would be a great time to announce the GMTR Reader’s League 2008.

Here’s how this will work: if you want to be in the Readers’ League, please either leave a comment or email with your suggestion as to what sort of contest we should have to pick the people to be in the league. That’s right, the best we could come up with was a contest where you tell us what the contest should have been. Maybe we’ll use your idea next year. For the actual decision-making part, the most innovative and/or humorous ideas will move to the head of the class. People were way too serious about the last contest, so try to spice it up as much as possible this time.

As a side note, Patrick has offered himself up to be in 2 leagues if there is enough interest, so don’t worry, you probably have pretty good odds of getting in to one or the other, and since Patrick will be in both of them you’ll have a chance to beat him either way.

As you know, last year’s Readers’ League was pretty much the most competitive from end-to-end that both Patrick and I have ever participated in (of course, we don’t usually leagues with money at stake, so maybe that explains that). Anyway, Patrick suggested that, if there were sufficient interest, we take the cutthroatedness to a whole new level, and have a really, really big league. Like, 20+ teams big. Yahoo will let you have up to 30, so don’t think we’re kidding around here. If you’d be interested in the Ginormous Massive Tremendous Redonkulous Reader’s League, please add that to your comment or email. It would still likely be 9-category H2H, if that makes a difference to anyone.

Finally, just to be clear, you can be in both a normal Readers’ League and the BIGOL Reader’s League, so don’t let your desire to just play some standard fantasy basketball get in the way of also trying something new and different (and probably legally insane).

HoopsAvenue (home to it’s own unique brand of fantasy basketball, which has somehow escaped mention here before) brings us the Brotherhood of the Traveling Blogs. So, check that out, and also check out Hoops Avenue’s fantasy game to see if you find their rules as interesting as I do. Almost makes me want to sign up. Because, y’know, I’m never in more fantasy leagues than I can handle or anything.

Eric Wong at RotoEvil almost has his fantasy draft guide ready. Evidently we here at GMTR are WAY undercharging for our stuff (not that Eric is overcharging, you see - I’m sure his guide is FAR superior to ours - but simply because we are basically giving it away in exchange for good karma).

And finally, I get ripped - and rightly so - in the Points in the Paint Mock Draft Analysis. As I noted in one of many chat sessions that take place at the GMTR 2008 Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft Spreadsheet. I don’t think the non-collaborators can join the chat (or if they can even see the chats), but my comment was that I was glad for the practice, so I’ll be much more certain of what to do when the GMTR Readers’ League draft rolls around. Patrick and I are still working on the entry method for the Readers’ League, but don’t worry, Patrick has said he’s willing to play in two leagues this year if we have that many people who want to take on the reigning champ. And while I did win the DroppingDimes so-called Experts League last season, my spidey-sense tells me that people will be much more interested in knocking off the GMTR Readers’ League champ than they will taking out Mr. Ninth Place. But just to see (and since I have this PollDaddy account now) …

It’s that time of year again! Player tiers! By position!

So what are player tiers? It’s the practice of grouping players of similar value into levels or tiers. The goal is to identify areas where there are large gaps in value between groups of players, so that there is a large drop off in value between the players in tier A and those in tier B. This not only simplifies drafting, it also helps you to identify times during a draft where it might be worthwhile to take a lesser ranked player at a certain position because he is the last guy available from his tier, while there maybe be plenty of similarly ranked players are other positions.

Let’s get the player tiers rolling with point guards. As always, these tiers are based on the ones available in our positional tiers spreadsheet, which will be updated throughout the fall. Players are listed under their tier along with their position on our Big Board.

Tier 1 – The Undisputed Champ

Chris Paul (1)

What more can be said about Paul? He’ll go somewhere in the top 4 picks in every draft and should go number one.

Tier 2 – The Stars (But are you comfortable building a team around these guys?)

Allen Iverson (12)
Baron Davis (15.5)

It’s a bit of strange year for fantasy drafts. After the Dirk/KG/Wade/Brand/Marion tier in the first round, there is realistically about 10-12 guys you could pick after that and feel like you made a good pick. Despite his age, Iverson is probably the best PG to go after other than Paul (now that Agent Zero and his knee are a bit of an unknown). Iverson has played long enough and with enough consistency on the Nuggets that we know he’s going to be a 25 and 7 guy. Davis has the ability to put better numbers overall than Iverson and had a better year than him last year, but it’s still tough to trust B-Diddy farther than you can see his beard.

Tier 3 – The Studs

Chauncey Billups (20)
Steve Nash (28.5)
Deron Williams (28.5)
Jose Calderon (32)
Gilbert Arenas (29)

I seriously considered putting Billups in the second tier, but I just didn’t like the way that tickled my giblets. He did finish 13th on the GMTR 9-cat rater last season (24th in 8-cat leagues), and while he is getting older, Billups is a year younger than Iverson. What I don’t like about Billups is that his minutes dropped from 36 to 32 a game last season. Thanks to some good percentages, his fantasy game has remained strong, but the counting stats have been on the slow decline since 2006.

Calderon and Williams each have their group of admirers who are a little too willing to reach for them in drafts. They both should be in for good years, just try not to reach for them too soon.

And poor Gilbert Arenas. Either you’re the type of owner that would consider Arenas on your team for the right price, in which case you’re silently nodding your head in agreement with him in this tier, or you’re the type of owner who will never allow Arenas near one of your fantasy teams ever again, in which case you’re starting to foam at the mouth that I’d even consider putting Arenas in the same tier as Billups.

Tier 4 – Solid Veterans

Jason Kidd (47.5)
Mo Williams (50.5)
Andre Miller (57.5)

There is nothing to be ashamed about if you wait until this tier to grab your first point guard. Dallas Kidd is never going to be the player he was with New Jersey (there is no way he’s averaging 8 rebounds a game anymore, for example), although his assist numbers are still Kidd-like at 9+ a game. Mo Williams joins LeBron this season, which people generally agree is going to be good for his fantasy prospects. And Andre Miller’s assist totals should be happy to see Elton Brand. If you do draft Miller, just keep an eye out for everyone’s favorite super-sleeper, Louis Williams, who could steal some minutes away from the veteran.

Tier 5 – Risks and Rewards and Devin Harris

Monta Ellis (79)
Kirk Hinrich (78)
Leandro Barbosa (77)
Devin Harris (81.5)
Mike Bibby (86.5)

Devin Harris is the only sure thing in this tier – a tier full of risk and (possibly) reward. Ellis, fresh off his breakout season, injured his ankle while “outdoors” (a very dangerous place, if I do say so myself). He’ll be out until sometime in December at the earliest, and could be affected by the injury for the rest of the year. Hinrich is coming off a bad fantasy year, although if you examine the numbers, it was solely due to a decrease in minutes. With the Bulls drafting Derrick Rose, it could be more of the same for Hinrich in 08/09. Like Hinrich, Leandro Barbosa took a step back last season minutes-wise thanks to the general good health of all the Suns guards. Barring injuries, it should be more of the same for Leandro as well.

Tier 6 – Solid Number Twos

Rajon Rondo (90)
Rafer Alston (92)
TJ Ford (97.5)
Anthony Carter (100)
Derek Fisher (102)
Jameer Nelson (106)
Tony Parker (109) - By popular demand - Tony gets bumped up to tier 6. Your love is so contagious, I even moved him up a few spots on my player rankings.

It’s a tier full of serviceable second point guards who have limited amounts of upside. Rondo might have some, but to say his offensive game is still rough is a little understatement – he was passing up open lay-ups in the NBA finals. I’m not going to believe his shot has improved until I can see it with my very own eyes. The rest of these guys are pretty much who we think they are, although it should be noted that TJ Ford might not be the super injury risk he’s assumed to be.

Tier 7 – Maaaaybe Something Good is in Store

Derrick Rose (111.5)
Tony Parker (111.5)
Raymond Felton (113)
Nate Robinson (116)
Beno Udrih (115.5)
Ramon Sessions (122)
Russell Westbrook (119)

Tier 7 is kinda like the tier 6 only with a little more risk. Both Sessions and Udrih came out of nowhere to earn starting jobs last season. Sessions averaged an insane 7.5 assists in only 26 and a half minutes a game last season. Great, right? Well, the Bucks aren’t so sure. They signed Luke Ridnour this off season, which will probably result in some kind of point guard sharing role between Sessions and Ridnour.

According to our Big Board, Derrick Rose should be the first rookie PG taken, which shouldn’t be a surprise. Although Russell Westbrook should also get every opportunity in Oklahoma to at least be in the mix, if not start.

Tier 8 – The Rest

Earl Watson (133.5)
Jerryd Bayless (134.5)
Jordan Farmar (142.5)
Louis Williams (147)
Jason Williams (151.5)
Antonio Daniels (162)
Mike Conley (163.5)
Delonte West (178.5)
Chris Duhon (182)
DJ Augustin (173.5)
Steve Blake (176)
Luke Ridnour (180)
Marcus Williams (189) - like Antonio Daniels, Williams should get some run at the beginning of the season filling in for Monta Ellis.
Stephon Marbury (194)

It’s the end of the draft and you need one more point guard. This is what you’ll be looking at. Louis Williams is probably the best of the bunch, however, he’s blocked behind Andre Miller at the moment. With the Gilbert Arenas injury, Daniels will be the Wizards’ starter for at least a month and maybe longer. Mike Conley is worth taking a chance on - add a few more minutes a game to his rookie season and he’d be more like a tier 6 guy. The Knicks signed Chris Duhon to be their starter, so, you know, he’ll be starting. Maybe. Nels seems to hate the guy, probably because he had to watch him play for 4 years in Chicago.

Well, he’s gone done it again. The Washington Post reports that Gilbert Arenas had surgery today to “clean out his left knee,” making it the third surgery on his left knee in the past 18 months. The procedure is considered minor – and after taking 3 days off to rest - he can begin rehab. The surgery will likely keep Arenas out until December, and knowing Agent Zero, I’d be willing to bet that he ends up rushing back before he’s ready in December and re-injures his ankle before the New Year.

Fortunately (for those of you not involved in a mock draft), Arenas’ operation comes early enough that we can adjust our cheat sheets accordingly. Other than Agent Zero himself, the injury really only affects one – or possibly two – guy(s): Antonio Daniels and maaaaaaybe Dee Brown. Daniels is likely to be the Wizards starting PG out of camp, and the man can dish some assists when given the opportunity (6.4 per 40 minutes last season). He finished 152 on the GMTR player rater in a mostly Gilbert-less season last year, so don’t consider him more than a one month rent-a-player if you take a chance on Arenas in your draft.

Not-the-former-slam-dunk-champ Dee Brown was on the Jazz in 2006 (and in Turkey last year), where he played a total of 450 minutes in his rookie year. However, unless Daniels gets hurt, there’s reason to worry about Brown.

The fantasy value of Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison isn’t really affected. Both are going to go high in drafts anyway, now you can draft them with a little more confidence. Their stats last year without Arenas weren’t all that different from when he was around, with the small exception of Jamison’s rebounding numbers. But I’m not sure we want to credit Arenas with that.

So that leaves us with the question about what to do with Arenas. I think the answer depends on whether you are an optimist or a pessimist at heart.

The Glass Half Full Plan

I think it is safe to assume that when Gilbert Arenas is healthy, he has the talent of a first round guy at a scarce fantasy position. He finished 5th on the rater in 2006/07 and 9th in 2005/06. Of course, the problem lately has been his health. But if we hope for the best and Arenas returns by December, that means he’s only missing 8 games.

One of the GMTR fantasy basketball commandments is to draft for value whenever possible*. Everyone is likely to be freaked out by this latest development, which means that an opportunistic fantasy owner will likely be able to get Arenas at a steep, steep discount on draft day, much steeper than a guy missing 8 games would usually dictate.

The Sure Your Glass is Half Full, But I Didn’t Know You Liked to Drink Warm Piss Plan

Arenas’ timetable puts him back on the court in “December” – which is NBA code for he’ll start practicing in December, then you won’t hear a word about him until January, then he’ll be scheduled to return by the end of January, only to return to the court in February, get hurt by March and schedule another knee operation for the summer. If that sounds like a guy you want to waste a second or third round pick on, then Kwame Brown has a couple timeshares he wants you to look at. And even if Arenas does come back and has a mostly healthy season, there will be plenty of guys available in those rounds who will put up similar numbers to him and are much safer picks.

As for me, I’d be a little hesitant to draft Arenas in general and I wouldn’t touch him before the third round. But if he slips far enough – say I’m staring at him at the end of the fourth – he’s a talented enough player that I wouldn’t be able to pass that up. And if he somehow misses the majority of the year, I’d be confident knowing that Antonio Daniels can give me approximately 12.3% of what Arenas would have been able to.

* Alright, I’m just making that up right now. But you have to admit it sounds good.

The GMTR Readers Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft started yesterday. If you applied and didn’t get an email about it, I apologize. We had a bunch of people apply, and Patrick even let one extra person take his spot. Much like the GMTR Readers League last season, there are fierce competitors who read this blog.

You can view the results of the Mock Draft in near real time (I think Google updates the public version every 5 minutes). I’m not sure how much fun that is, but it seems like there’s always a participant or two on there looking at it. I am also cross-posting the results to the Mock Draft Roundup. Cause it would be kind of pointless if I didn’t.