Give Me The Rock
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Well, he’s gone done it again. The Washington Post reports that Gilbert Arenas had surgery today to “clean out his left knee,†making it the third surgery on his left knee in the past 18 months. The procedure is considered minor – and after taking 3 days off to rest – he can begin rehab. The surgery will likely keep Arenas out until December, and knowing Agent Zero, I’d be willing to bet that he ends up rushing back before he’s ready in December and re-injures his ankle before the New Year.
Fortunately (for those of you not involved in a mock draft), Arenas’ operation comes early enough that we can adjust our cheat sheets accordingly. Other than Agent Zero himself, the injury really only affects one – or possibly two – guy(s): Antonio Daniels and maaaaaaybe Dee Brown. Daniels is likely to be the Wizards starting PG out of camp, and the man can dish some assists when given the opportunity (6.4 per 40 minutes last season). He finished 152 on the GMTR player rater in a mostly Gilbert-less season last year, so don’t consider him more than a one month rent-a-player if you take a chance on Arenas in your draft.
Not-the-former-slam-dunk-champ Dee Brown was on the Jazz in 2006 (and in Turkey last year), where he played a total of 450 minutes in his rookie year. However, unless Daniels gets hurt, there’s reason to worry about Brown.
The fantasy value of Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison isn’t really affected. Both are going to go high in drafts anyway, now you can draft them with a little more confidence. Their stats last year without Arenas weren’t all that different from when he was around, with the small exception of Jamison’s rebounding numbers. But I’m not sure we want to credit Arenas with that.
So that leaves us with the question about what to do with Arenas. I think the answer depends on whether you are an optimist or a pessimist at heart.
The Glass Half Full Plan
I think it is safe to assume that when Gilbert Arenas is healthy, he has the talent of a first round guy at a scarce fantasy position. He finished 5th on the rater in 2006/07 and 9th in 2005/06. Of course, the problem lately has been his health. But if we hope for the best and Arenas returns by December, that means he’s only missing 8 games.
One of the GMTR fantasy basketball commandments is to draft for value whenever possible*. Everyone is likely to be freaked out by this latest development, which means that an opportunistic fantasy owner will likely be able to get Arenas at a steep, steep discount on draft day, much steeper than a guy missing 8 games would usually dictate.
The Sure Your Glass is Half Full, But I Didn’t Know You Liked to Drink Warm Piss Plan
Arenas’ timetable puts him back on the court in “December†– which is NBA code for he’ll start practicing in December, then you won’t hear a word about him until January, then he’ll be scheduled to return by the end of January, only to return to the court in February, get hurt by March and schedule another knee operation for the summer. If that sounds like a guy you want to waste a second or third round pick on, then Kwame Brown has a couple timeshares he wants you to look at. And even if Arenas does come back and has a mostly healthy season, there will be plenty of guys available in those rounds who will put up similar numbers to him and are much safer picks.
As for me, I’d be a little hesitant to draft Arenas in general and I wouldn’t touch him before the third round. But if he slips far enough – say I’m staring at him at the end of the fourth – he’s a talented enough player that I wouldn’t be able to pass that up. And if he somehow misses the majority of the year, I’d be confident knowing that Antonio Daniels can give me approximately 12.3% of what Arenas would have been able to.
* Alright, I’m just making that up right now. But you have to admit it sounds good.
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