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It’s that time of year again! Player tiers! By position!
So what are player tiers? It’s the practice of grouping players of similar value into levels or tiers. The goal is to identify areas where there are large gaps in value between groups of players, so that there is a large drop off in value between the players in tier A and those in tier B. This not only simplifies drafting, it also helps you to identify times during a draft where it might be worthwhile to take a lesser ranked player at a certain position because he is the last guy available from his tier, while there maybe be plenty of similarly ranked players are other positions.
Let’s get the player tiers rolling with point guards. As always, these tiers are based on the ones available in our positional tiers spreadsheet, which will be updated throughout the fall. Players are listed under their tier along with their position on our Big Board.
Tier 1 – The Undisputed Champ
Chris Paul (1)
What more can be said about Paul? He’ll go somewhere in the top 4 picks in every draft and should go number one.
Tier 2 – The Stars (But are you comfortable building a team around these guys?)
Allen Iverson (12)
Baron Davis (15.5)
It’s a bit of strange year for fantasy drafts. After the Dirk/KG/Wade/Brand/Marion tier in the first round, there is realistically about 10-12 guys you could pick after that and feel like you made a good pick. Despite his age, Iverson is probably the best PG to go after other than Paul (now that Agent Zero and his knee are a bit of an unknown). Iverson has played long enough and with enough consistency on the Nuggets that we know he’s going to be a 25 and 7 guy. Davis has the ability to put better numbers overall than Iverson and had a better year than him last year, but it’s still tough to trust B-Diddy farther than you can see his beard.
Tier 3 – The Studs
Chauncey Billups (20)
Steve Nash (28.5)
Deron Williams (28.5)
Jose Calderon (32)
Gilbert Arenas (29)
I seriously considered putting Billups in the second tier, but I just didn’t like the way that tickled my giblets. He did finish 13th on the GMTR 9-cat rater last season (24th in 8-cat leagues), and while he is getting older, Billups is a year younger than Iverson. What I don’t like about Billups is that his minutes dropped from 36 to 32 a game last season. Thanks to some good percentages, his fantasy game has remained strong, but the counting stats have been on the slow decline since 2006.
Calderon and Williams each have their group of admirers who are a little too willing to reach for them in drafts. They both should be in for good years, just try not to reach for them too soon.
And poor Gilbert Arenas. Either you’re the type of owner that would consider Arenas on your team for the right price, in which case you’re silently nodding your head in agreement with him in this tier, or you’re the type of owner who will never allow Arenas near one of your fantasy teams ever again, in which case you’re starting to foam at the mouth that I’d even consider putting Arenas in the same tier as Billups.
Tier 4 – Solid Veterans
Jason Kidd (47.5)
Mo Williams (50.5)
Andre Miller (57.5)
There is nothing to be ashamed about if you wait until this tier to grab your first point guard. Dallas Kidd is never going to be the player he was with New Jersey (there is no way he’s averaging 8 rebounds a game anymore, for example), although his assist numbers are still Kidd-like at 9+ a game. Mo Williams joins LeBron this season, which people generally agree is going to be good for his fantasy prospects. And Andre Miller’s assist totals should be happy to see Elton Brand. If you do draft Miller, just keep an eye out for everyone’s favorite super-sleeper, Louis Williams, who could steal some minutes away from the veteran.
Tier 5 – Risks and Rewards and Devin Harris
Monta Ellis (79)
Kirk Hinrich (78)
Leandro Barbosa (77)
Devin Harris (81.5)
Mike Bibby (86.5)
Devin Harris is the only sure thing in this tier – a tier full of risk and (possibly) reward. Ellis, fresh off his breakout season, injured his ankle while “outdoors†(a very dangerous place, if I do say so myself). He’ll be out until sometime in December at the earliest, and could be affected by the injury for the rest of the year. Hinrich is coming off a bad fantasy year, although if you examine the numbers, it was solely due to a decrease in minutes. With the Bulls drafting Derrick Rose, it could be more of the same for Hinrich in 08/09. Like Hinrich, Leandro Barbosa took a step back last season minutes-wise thanks to the general good health of all the Suns guards. Barring injuries, it should be more of the same for Leandro as well.
Tier 6 – Solid Number Twos
Rajon Rondo (90)
Rafer Alston (92)
TJ Ford (97.5)
Anthony Carter (100)
Derek Fisher (102)
Jameer Nelson (106)
Tony Parker (109) – By popular demand – Tony gets bumped up to tier 6. Your love is so contagious, I even moved him up a few spots on my player rankings.
It’s a tier full of serviceable second point guards who have limited amounts of upside. Rondo might have some, but to say his offensive game is still rough is a little understatement – he was passing up open lay-ups in the NBA finals. I’m not going to believe his shot has improved until I can see it with my very own eyes. The rest of these guys are pretty much who we think they are, although it should be noted that TJ Ford might not be the super injury risk he’s assumed to be.
Tier 7 – Maaaaybe Something Good is in Store
Derrick Rose (111.5)
Tony Parker (111.5)
Raymond Felton (113)
Nate Robinson (116)
Beno Udrih (115.5)
Ramon Sessions (122)
Russell Westbrook (119)
Tier 7 is kinda like the tier 6 only with a little more risk. Both Sessions and Udrih came out of nowhere to earn starting jobs last season. Sessions averaged an insane 7.5 assists in only 26 and a half minutes a game last season. Great, right? Well, the Bucks aren’t so sure. They signed Luke Ridnour this off season, which will probably result in some kind of point guard sharing role between Sessions and Ridnour.
According to our Big Board, Derrick Rose should be the first rookie PG taken, which shouldn’t be a surprise. Although Russell Westbrook should also get every opportunity in Oklahoma to at least be in the mix, if not start.
Tier 8 – The Rest
Earl Watson (133.5)
Jerryd Bayless (134.5)
Jordan Farmar (142.5)
Louis Williams (147)
Jason Williams (151.5)
Antonio Daniels (162)
Mike Conley (163.5)
Delonte West (178.5)
Chris Duhon (182)
DJ Augustin (173.5)
Steve Blake (176)
Luke Ridnour (180)
Marcus Williams (189) – like Antonio Daniels, Williams should get some run at the beginning of the season filling in for Monta Ellis.
Stephon Marbury (194)
It’s the end of the draft and you need one more point guard. This is what you’ll be looking at. Louis Williams is probably the best of the bunch, however, he’s blocked behind Andre Miller at the moment. With the Gilbert Arenas injury, Daniels will be the Wizards’ starter for at least a month and maybe longer. Mike Conley is worth taking a chance on – add a few more minutes a game to his rookie season and he’d be more like a tier 6 guy. The Knicks signed Chris Duhon to be their starter, so, you know, he’ll be starting. Maybe. Nels seems to hate the guy, probably because he had to watch him play for 4 years in Chicago.
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