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Player Tiers – Shooting Guards

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Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Draft Guide Mojo 2008, NBA Basketball, Random Stuff
Posted on: October 1st, 2008

Let’s hope we have as much fun with the shooting guard tiers as we did with the point guard tiers. As always, most of the information found in these posts is available on our Big Board, Player Tier Spreadsheet and Mock Draft.

Tier 1 – The First Rounders

1. Kobe Bryant (4)
2. Dwyane Wade (9)

No surprise that Kobe Bryant is the top ranked SG going into the season. Unfortunately, if you do take him, you’ll have to wait until the season starts to see if you drafted Scoring Machine Kobe or Good Teammate Kobe (or some bi-polar combination of both). Either way, one of those Kobes will finish the year as one of the best fantasy guys in the league, it just makes planning out the rest of your team during the draft a little difficult. Dwayne Wade is neither as good nor as consistent as Kobe, but he should go in the first round of most drafts. He looked good during the Olympics, which kinda should almost mean something.

Tier 2 – Guys to Go to War With (And Vince Carter)

3. Danny Granger (21)
4. Jason Richardson (22)
5. Kevin Martin (25)
6. Vince Carter (25)

Danny Granger is getting so much love this season that even David Duchovny is starting to get jealous. Granger busted out in his third season to average over 19 points, 6 boards, and 2 threes a game. He’s 25-years old and the Pacers appear to be building around the guy. He went #21 in the GMTR Readers’ Mock Draft and #26 in the FantasyBasketball.com draft, which are both spots I’d feel comfortable taking him.

Jason Richardson put up the best season of his career in 07-08, averaging 22/5/3 with a league leading 3 threes a game. Amazingly, he also played in all 82 games and managed to increase his FG% up to a career-busting high of 75%. The fact that he went 41 in the GMTR mock is an indication how people feel about his likelihood to repeat that performance. Personally, I feel that his stats should remain fairly constant from last season, but the games played might take a dive.

If Vince Carter were a normal man, fights would be breaking out in war rooms across this great land to draft an all-star on a team as bad as the Nets. Instead, people are worried that the 2008 Nets are going to look an awfully lot like the 2004 Raptors.

Tier 3 – Beauty and the Beast

7. Andre Iguodala (39)
8. Joe Johnson (42)

The old two person tier. Classic. Go ahead and stick them in the second tier if you swing that way, but I’m definitely picking these guys after all the guys in tier two (yes, even Vince Carter). Before there was Josh Smith, Iguodala was the guy who gave 90% of the fantasy basketball community a hard-on when they drafted him. He keeps getting better as well, pretty much averaging 20/5/5 last season. If it wasn’t for Brand joining the Sixers (and the uncertainty that brings), Iguodala probably would have slid into a higher tier.

Tier 4 – Good Things Come to Those Who Shoot

9. Ray Allen (48)
10. Brandon Roy (49)
11. Manu Ginobili (55)
12. Stephen Jackson (55)
13. Michael Redd (58)
14. Jamal Crawford (62)
15. Jason Terry (62)
16. Mike Miller (64)

Manu would definitely be in the second tier if not for his ankle injury that will now keep him out until at least mid-December, and maybe longer. This could be one of those annoying injuries where his return date keeps getting pushed further and further back until you realize it is February and he’s still wasting away on your bench… I’ve been hurt before.

I really want to like Brandon Roy, I really do. I mean he averaged 19 points and 6 assists in only his second season. Taking into account his likely improvement, that means what this year – 20 and 7? 22 and 7.5? 35 and 15? But the fact that Roy has been a pretty fragile guy in his short career and that he’s already had knee surgery in the off season scares me a little. Ok, a lot. You’ve got to take him in his tier, I just won’t be crushed if it’s someone else taking him.

And Jamaal Crawford. Does he become a breakout player in Mike D’Antoni’s system? Is this the year he shoots over 41% from the floor? Reports are that the Knicks are going to be playing fast, which is likely a boon for Crawford’s offensive game. He’ll hurt your team’s FG% for sure, but the points and threes will be worth it. He went #73 in the GMTR mock, if you can grab him there, he’ll be worth it.

Tier 5 – Solid Number Twos (And Tracy McGrady)

17. Richard Hamilton (77)
18. Tracy McGrady (73)
19. Anthony Parker (78)
20. Raja Bell (82)
21. Ben Gordon (84)
22. Randy Foye (90)
23. Ronnie Brewer (105)
24. Ricky Davis (113)
25. John Salmons (113)

This is a huge tier that could have possibly been split after Anthony Parker or Randy Foye, but the peeps are really loving John Salmons this season, and I’m loving Ronnie Brewer (although no one loves Ricky Davis). I like Salmons as well as a late round pick and although he’ll be starting, the fact that he’ll likely be splitting time with Francisco Garcia means that I wouldn’t reach for him until the picks get in the 100s. While Randy Foye qualifies at shooting guard, technically he’s a point guard. But since I left him out of the PG write-up, I’ll stick him here and hope no one notices. What? Ok, slide him into tier 6 of the PG rankings if you must. McGrady went #48 in the Fantasybasketball.com mock and #65 in the GMTR mock, so there are people willing to give the guy the benefit of the doubt. Me? Not so much.

Tier 6 – Guys to Take a Chance on in Smaller Leagues

26. JR Smith (139)
27. Russell Westbrook (119)
28. Daniel Gibson (123)
29. Michael Pietrus (124)
30. Deshawn Stevenson (125)
31. Cuttino Mobley (144)
32. OJ Mayo (126)
33. Rudy Fernandez (153)

J.R. Smith has a shiny new 3-year contract to be a scorer off the bench for the Nuggets. He averaged an insane 5.3 threes per 48 minutes last season (2.1 in his 19 minutes a game) and with the departure of Eduardo Najera, he could be in for a few more minutes this year (but he’ll still be coming off the bench). Nels really likes Russell Westbrook on his side of the big board, so he’ll have to back up that move. I guess the minutes could be there for Westbrook since his competition right now is Earl Watson. SA Spurscasters also makes a good point in the mock that Westbrook reminds him of Monta Ellis. Now that is praise worth more than the pixels it’s written on.

Rudy Fernandez joins the Blazers from the Spanish league and already has the support of Nate McMillan, who says that Fernandez might jump right into the starting role and move Roy to PG. Starting or not, he’s a great scorer and three point shooter and that alone makes him worth a late round pick just to see what kind of playing time he gets.

Tier 7 – Guys to Take a Chance on in Bigger Leagues

34. Keith Bogans (147)
35. Larry Hughes (145)
36. Sasha Vujacic (148)
37. Kelenna Azubuike (157)
38. Rashad McCants (172)
39. Maurice Evans (179)
40. Kyle Lowry (160)
41. Eric Gordon (184)
42. Marko Jaric (190)

Alright – last tier of SGs. Basically, a bunch of guys who may not be starting for their teams, but have some at least some potential. Maurice Evans joins the Hawks and will likely replace Josh Childress as their 6th man. The departure of Juan Carlos Navarro will open up some minutes for Kyle Lowry, but he’s still going to be coming off the still off bench in favor of Mike Conley. Keith Bogans will probably play backup Michael Pietrus, who joined the Magic this off season. Rashard McCants was never very good to begin with and will find minutes harder to come by with Mike Miller now on the team. Kelenna Azubuike flashed some talent at times last season, but like last year, he’ll be stuck coming off the bench. Sasha Vujacic is going to find minutes tough to come by in that Lakers’ rotation.

Other Stuff Like This:

  • Will L
    Thanks for the advice guys.
  • Hey if you want to look at a league and play around with the RSB Fantasy Software follow this:
    http://www.realsportsbloggers.com/leagues/baske...
    On the lower left of the page there is a COMMISH ADMIN link. Click that and the password is www

    Play with it and see what you think.

    Mike
  • Yeah, Terrance. It is one of the hardest things to do, but years of coming in 2nd, 3rd, or last will eventually force you to come to terms with it if you want to win. In my 12+ years of playing fantasy sports I can't tell you the number of times I've come in 2nd. This year I was 3rd in both my fantasy baseball leagues. Separating the players from their SportsCenter images is the first, and most important point in being a winning GM.
  • terrance
    had a roto draft today in a yahoo competitive league. heres the first round picks. about 10 or the 12 managers were present.

    lebron
    paul
    bryant
    amare
    wade
    brand (me)
    garnett
    dirk
    butler
    davis
    granger
    bosh



    @ mike "This is not a game of players as much as it is a game of projected statistical outcomes. Erase the names and go by the numbers. "


    Thats great advice! It's still one of the hardest things to do.
  • Also, the common wisdom on early picks is to take the best available players, regardless of position and then fill out the roster with complimentary players in the cats you are trying to win as the rounds move along. The season is won in the middle rounds for the most part. Know what cats you're going to go for before you make a single pick, have an alternate combination of cats ready in case the draft provides some surprises, and stick to your guns.

    Good luck.
  • Calderon as a 1st rounder is a huge stretch. Picking him at 12 would go against most pre-season rankings and would also go against the average draft position logic that has him closer to 25-30 than to 10-15. Bynum may warrant the 13th pick next year or the year after, but he's also being picked too high in this scenario.

    The question you have to ask yourself is, "Can I get either of these player, or their rough equivalent, later? If I pass up established fantasy 1st rounders for these guys, am I guaranteed that they're going to give me the same value?"

    The answer to the 1st part is yes. The answer to the 2nd part is no. That in and of itself tells you what you need to know. One of the most important bits of fantasy wisdom out there is, "don't get hung up on particular players." This is not a game of players as much as it is a game of projected statistical outcomes. Erase the names and go by the numbers. The names only help you to get a sense of the injury history(Baron Davis, Marcus Camby), temperment(Ron Artest), or the status on his own team(#1 guy or role player).

    At the 12th and 13th pick, you'd be much better off going with Nash and Camby, or Billups and Iverson than Calderon and Bynum. You can get one of the less-established guys, or someone like them, easily in the 3rd and 4th round.
  • Thanks for the love, Will.

    I basically agree with Nels on this one. It might not be a completely retarded idea, just a crazy one. I love Bynum and Calderon too, but I'd probably aimed to pick them up in the 3rd and 4th rounds rather than the 1st and 2nd.

    And I love the large ball idea, someone should try that strategy in a league. I'm not sure if it's a winner, I don't think the team has a chance at winning points, assists, or FT%. Maybe in an H2H league it could work. Someone should experiment with it.
  • @Will, I like the second idea a lot better. Your first idea just reeks of irrational love. If you want to have a team you really like that might not win, then sure, go for Bynum and Calderon. They're probably not going to be good enough to justify those picks, but they will almost certainly be gone by the time you get your 3rd pick. As you point out, though, there's players who are much more likely to produce at that level, and justify those picks. Maybe just take the guys you should take at 12th and 13th (Iverson, Billups, Big Al, and Rashard would be my targets) and then try trading them for the guys you want, plus a little something else. If you know the other owners well enough, you could even try talking someone into trading up so you can trade down and get some picks closer together and closer to where the guys you want are.

    As for the other question... you could win Blocks, Steals, Rebounds, and Points, but I'm not sure what your 5th category would be. You might win FG% or 3s or TOs against the right teams, but probably not with enough consistency for a championship.
  • Will L
    Another idea:

    Would it be stupid to go for Camby, Josh Smith, Gerald Wallace, Rasheed Wallace (or Artest), and Kirilenko?

    I'd have low points, but lots of hustle!

    Would a team like this have a shot at winning?
  • Will L
    Hi, I love what you guys do here.

    I'm in a yahoo! 12-team H2H 9 category league and I have the 12th pick. Do you think I would be crazy to take Calderon and Bynum 1st (12th) and 2nd (13th)? Would I be retarded to pass over players like

    Bosh (he'll probably be gone)
    B-Diddy
    AI
    Billups
    Deron
    Camby
    Nash
    Pau
    Big Al
    Rashard
    Yao
    Duncan
    Rudy Gay
    Paul Pierce
    Iguodala
    and Josh Smith?

    I had both José and Andrew on my team last year, and they seem like they're gonna be great this year. Am I thinking too highly of them?
  • sean, I'd like to believe, but between Marco Belinelli and Anthony Morrow, minutes could be tight for Azubuike. I'm taking the wait and see approach with him.

    SamiA, horrible wasn't the right word in that spot. I don't see them making the playoffs, but they do have some talented players to build on. Young would have been the better word to use in that sentence.
  • I respectfully disagree on the Nets having a horrible year. Its a ESPN/media bandwagon just because the Nets dealt Richard Jefferson. Yes he averaged 22 ppg but if they watched a Nets game they would notice that RJ and VC could not get going at the same time. They are two players that basically do the same thing.

    Not just that but the great draft the Nets had, I think VC is going to make Brook Lopez's job so much easier. The Nets for so long have coveted a big man who can catch and finish quickly since opponents do such a good job of shrinking the floor on VC and RJ.
  • seanlb
    i think Azubuike will improve a lot this year, not enough to bump him up a tier, but he'll get more minutes. Maybe?
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