Give Me The Rock
this is fantasy basketball
As the new year springs to life and begins to roll along, most people tend to shift their thoughts to the future and what it may hold. It’s about time we do the same. What better way to ponder on what the future may bring than to take a look at how this year’s young guns are doing in the NBA and in fantasy hoops.
A lot of experts weren’t too excited about this year’s crop of rookies before the season began. Frankly, I was one of them. Well not an expert, but I was one of the people who wasn’t holding his breath expecting greatness. I had my eye on a handful, well 3 in fact. Those were Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose, and O.J. Mayo. Greg Oden was on my bubble.
Patrick discussed about not being over eager to grab rookies in this year’s draft as rookies, as a general rule, rarely live up to their drafted expectations. I tried to follow his advice and tried to draft them as late as I could.
Fine, no one member of this year’s crop is named LeBron James. Neither is any one rookie standing out or is poised to be him or have the rookie-impact LBJ had. But collectively, as a class, there are a good number of these youngsters who may not be making huge waves; but are providing good contributions to a lot of fantasy teams today. Whether it’s because they’ve wound up in teams that are in dire need of talent at their positions or simply in need of talent – period.
The sheer number of rookies owned/started in various Yahoo! leagues is a testament as to how deep this batch of youngsters and not-as-young Spaniards really is. A lot of fantasy teams are utilizing the services of a good number of rookies this season compared to previous years. Sadly I don’t have the stats on me to back this up right now, but it does feel like there are so many rookies playing key roles in so many fantasy leagues today. People are paying the price (youth tax – as Patrick has coined it) of inconsistent games and roller coaster performances. There are simply enough good/decent games being churned out by these guys thus far to merit them spots many fantasy rosters.
The Creme de la Creme:
O.J. Mayo (93% Owned) – He is so far the top dog of the litter and is a good example of an instant-impact rook. As I write this he is currently ranked 41st and 56th on GMTR’s 8 and 9 cat rankings respectively. Not bad for a late round pick, eh? While his rookie numbers are more Kevin Durant than they are LeBron James, he wasn’t drafted nearly as early as either guy; so it’s all good. He’s a true combo guard in the sense that he’s a shoot first and think about passing the rock later kind of guy. Which in a way is good for the Memphis Grizzlies as they can use all the offensive help that they can get. He can score by breaking down some D and driving to the hoop or lobbing the ball from beyond the arc . His 19+ PPG and 1.8 3PG is more than respectable for a player who was roughly 89th overall (late 7th to early 8th rounds) in most fantasy drafts. 3 dimes a night plus a steal to boot round out his fantasy contributions so far in the season. He’s already a stud as it is and will only get studlier (I know it’s not a real word, sue me) as the next seasons come rolling along.
Derrick Rose (91% Owned) – He’s a good point guard right now, and has an immensely bright future ahead of him. I’m sure his fans are excited. It would be better if Nels to shared some of the minutes of the latest meeting from the “I own Derrick Rose in most of Fantasy Basketball teams, because I’m a Bulls fan and it’s pretty much slim pickings after him and Ben Gordon – Club”.
Seriously, his good shooting from both the field (47%) and the free throw line (79.5%); decent passing ability (5.9); not to mention his slowly developing touch from the outside (0.4), make him a solid cornerstone for the future Chicago franchise! He’s blossoming sooner and faster than anticipated, thanks in part to Kirk Hinrich’s unfortunate torn ligament in his thumb. Kirk, by the way, is on track for a speedy recovery and should be re-joining the Bulls before Feb. We’ll see how he is reintegrated into the rotation and how it will affect Derrick’s playing time and fantasy contributions. It’s not a far off thought to figure seeing both Kirk and Derrick being a double-combo-guard tandem for Chicago’s back court to establish their chemistry. – Since Ben Gordon may no longer be part of the team next season.
The guys you’ve come to count on to do what they do:
Brook Lopez (72% Owned) – He’s taken full advantage of the time missed by New Jersey’s original starting center, Josh Boone. He a steady source of blocks (1.9) and boards (8.0). He’s gravy as a tertiary big man and is a more than reasonable choice as a secondary center for almost any fantasy team out there. Josh Boone is getting his legs back under him, but there are no indications that Brook is at risk of losing his starting center gig at New Jersey. As long as he remains productive and aggressive on defense, I see no reason for Coach Frank to stifle his expedient development.
Mario Chalmers (54% Owned)Â – As much as I wanted to see Chris Quinn land the starting PG job over at Miami, I was pleasantly surprised and moderately impressed as to how fast Mario was able to acclimate himself to his role with the Heat. He couldn’t buy a basket early on and is still not known as offensive threat so far, but his quick hands on defense and his ability to shoot the ball from the outside are skills that have allowed him to be an asset in the starting lineup. He fits like a glove in head to head teams that aren’t competing in the points category and are more focused on hustle numbers. His treys (1.5), steals
(1.9), and dimes (4.6) are great for rounding out many a team’s guard numbers. There doesn’t seem to be anyone close to contesting his playing time and starting slot, so he looks like a pretty solid guy from this point ’til the end of the season.
The highly anticipated but so far underwhelming:
Greg Oden (82% Owned, Average Pick: 60) - Consistent foul trouble and early injury problems have clouded Greg’s highly anticipated belated rookie debut. He is still adjusting to pro play. His below-expected line of 8.0/7.3/1.3 is far below what Blazers and fantasy fans alike were hoping he would be contributing this year. I still remain optimistic that he will get better this year and the next, but I can’t put a time and date as to when we can finally count on him to dial in the 12.5-14/8.9-11/1.6-1.9 line range that we in the fantasy basketball world are wishing he’d bring to the table.
Michael Beasley (80% Owned, Average Pick 68.9) – Much was expected of this “Marion-lite-in-the-making” prior to this season’s opening tip off, but so far he’s been more lite and not enough Marion (the old Phoenix variety). 13.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 0.6 steals, 0.5 blocks are not exactly the numbers I was expecting from a 70th fantasy draft pick. His playing time decline to an average of 25 minutes per game shows that he still has some ways to go before he can become the Heat’s go-to guy on the wings. Since it’s a possibility that Shawn Marion may test free agency and potentially leave Miami, next season may be the better time to actually own Beasley.
The latest wave of the Spanish Invasion:
Marc Gasol (62% Owned) and Rudy Fernandez (65% Owned) are both filling their roles in their NBA teams nicely. They aren’t making huge splashes in terms of fantasy impact, but they have found their repective niches on various fantasy teams
Rudy has to settle for coming off the bench behind superstar, Brandon Roy; which is obviously understandable. He has, however, become a reasonably solid offensive spark for Blazers. Besides, who resist chanting: “Rudy! Rudy! Rudy!”, especially when the guy’s lighting it up from downtown at 2.0 treys per game?
Marc, on the hand, has been on and off at the starting center job for the Griz. But his 11 points, 7 boards, 1.1 blocks a night aren’t too shabby either.
Neither of them appear poised to be “stars” on their respective teams, but can considered reliable role-players. The same can be said about their contributions to their fantasy basketball teams.
They may be inconsistent now, but watch out for their 3rd-year boom:
Russel Westbrook (58% Owned)- He’s the future for the Thunder at the point position. He still has some time to get a feel of whether he’s better suited to evolve as a combo-guard or a true playmaker.
Kevin Love (61% Owned) - He may eventually pair up with Al Jefferson to be a twin tower tandem, once he develops some consistency. His and Craig Smith’s fantasy values are currently inversely proportional – depending on who ends up more reliable for the night – that’s the guy who gets the minutes.
The guys on the “Bubble” with less than 50% ownership:
Eric Gordon (43% Owned) – Doing well with Ricky Davis’ injuries and ineffectiveness.
D.J. Augustin (42% Owned) – He would have an even bigger fantasy impact if Larry Brown gave him a bit more playing time. Coach probably is not in a rush to usher his development.
So far this batch seeems to be doing pretty good as a whole. For now, these NBA freshmen will have to continue being schooled by their mentors and their veteran opponents alike. There’s nothing like on-the-job learning! Let’s revisit them at the end of their first season and check out their report cards.
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