Draft vs. Reality

Categorized as: Author: Nels, Fantasy Basketball, GMTR Leagues
Posted on: January 7th, 2009

Image by night86mare via Flickr

Below are the 13 steeds that I hitched my chariot to at the beginning of the season in the GMTR Mock Draft; from which was created the Mock Draft League. The league starts each of the 13 players and no trades or free agent pickups are allowed, and is intended to be a representation of true drafting talent.

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You got-dam rite I did. I was just lucky enough not to have been able to pick Brand in any of my other leagues (I was tempted to say “leagues that count” but this Mock Draft League does go on my Yahoo Profile, so it counts all right). With the exception of that 254 pound weight around my neck, my drafting isn’t looking all that bad. Yeah, Caron Butler isn’t performing as well as I’d hoped, but Antawn Jamison is making up for that. (He’s looking even sweeter on Patrick’s Readers’ League team where Give Me The Rondo picked him up at 44)

Michael Redd is also underperforming (massively, according to Yahoo, which brings up a whole different train of thought as far as the outcome of this post is concerned). But again, Vince Carter is making up the difference there (or at least, he’s trying, according to Yahoo).

Francisco Garcia is up to 81 in the past month now that he’s returned from injury, and the last 3 picks of the draft are basically sleeper-gambles who’d probably all be off my team for a better free agent pickup (like Eric Gordon) if I could swap them out.

Of course, when you look at the other first round picks I could have had after Brand, you’ve only got a 60% chance of getting someone better. Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Garnett are both at least coming close to expectations (Dirk is playing slightly above, while Garnett is slightly below). But then there’s Josh Smith, who’s still getting his mojo back, and Carlos Boozer, who may have never had any in the first place. Allen Iverson is at 78 on the season (for Yahoo), so really, while you technically have a 60% chance of beating Brand in the next 5 picks, you’re not going to have a hugely successful season with Iverson unless your next couple of picks are playing about 10-20 spots above where you drafted them.

Empty The Bench has a list of the 10 Biggest Fantasy Hoops Headaches, and – surprise, surprise – Elton Brand trails only Shawn Marion for the top spot on the list.

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Tags: Antawn Jamison, Anthony Parker, Caron Butler, Elton Brand, Linas Kleiza, Michael Redd, Mike Bibby