Bottom of the Barrel

Categorized as: Author: Erik, Fantasy Basketball, GMTR Leagues
Posted on: January 14th, 2009

I discussed and broke down extensively the Give Me The Rock Mock Draft on Points in the Paint. Now that I’m writing here at GMTR, I feel it’s only fitting that I assess my decisions and revisit my thought process to learn from my choices. As they say, hindsight is 20-20.

As I write this, I am at the bottom of the Mock Draft barrel. Well close to it, currently 11th out of 12. Nels broke down his reality check of his analysis in this post. Now it’s my turn… Here are the reasons (not excuses) why my team is where it is right now.

Things tend to not do well for your fantasy team when your TOP 3 picks are performing below expectations…

Allen Iverson, PG/SG Detroit Pistons (Picked 1st round, 11th overall; current Yahoo! Season Rank:93) – Clearly, the Pistons-A.I. is but a fraction of the Denver-A.I. I drafted him thinking that he would go ga-ga (statwise) to land arguably his last contract of his Pro Ball career next year. I didn’t see him getting traded to a team that has an established, if not locked in chemistry. My first round pick is functioning like that of a guy that should have been picked in the 8th… go figure.

Deron Williams, PG Utah Jazz (Picked 2nd round, 14th overall; current Yahoo! Season Rank: 141) – He is back but I had to struggle through those games where he was sidelined with his ankle sprain problems. I didn’t expect him to bust his ankle. Well, for that matter, who did? He is returning close to his old (pre-injury) form. His comeback is partly the reason is why I am now 11th in the Mock Draft League and not dead last. He is currently averaging 15 PPG, 10 APG, with 1 trey and 1 stl per game as well. He still needs to up his FG% to offset his high TO rate. I expect his fantasy value to climb rankings as he gets more games under his belt.

Rudy Gay, SF/PF Memphis Grizzlies (Picked 3rd round, 35th overall; current Yahoo! Season Rank: 55) - While his value is not as far off as my first 2 picks, but nonetheless I am still dealing with roughly a 2 draft round value discrepancy. His stats are down across the board from last year, save for his FT% and his TOs which are both up. Brendan of 2RR broke down his disappointing performance so far quite well as early as late November. A lot of his take still holds true to tis day. I still feel Rudy’s got some upside left in him. I drafted Rudy expecting him to have a season that would arguably comparable to that of Danny Granger’s. 2 months into the season, there is NO ARGUMENT. Unless your name is Chris Paul, Kobe, LeBron, Dwyane Wade, or Dirk; don’t bother comparing your fantasy value to that of Danny Granger’s. I knew Danny would have an edge, but this is ridiculous. In fairness, their difference is more because Danny is doing so great.

Bright spots on my team:

Paul Pierce SG/SF, Boston Celtics (Picked 4th round, 38th overall; current Yahoo! Season Rank: 24) – He was a steal as a 4th round pick. He started off the season a bit slow in the flickering shadow of Ray Allen’s on-fire beginning. I believed in PP. I still do. He’s a true passionate trooper and still a fantasy stud as of late. He’s even currently playing through the discomfort of a lingering injury. I even traded for him from Nels in the GMTR readers league for my David West, but I’ll discuss that move in greater detail in some other post. It’s a good thing Paul’s value is far above what I drafted him at, otherwise my team might very well be dead last. Although his stats across the board are smidgets off last year’s par, he’s been collecting a good string of monster games that are slowly but surely pulling Pierce’s value upward.

O.J. Mayo PG/SG, Memphis Grizzlies (Picked 10th round, 110th overall; current Yahoo! Season Rank: 47) – It’s a good thing I opted to hedge my Rudy Gay pick by picking up some OJ in the 10th. Ironically, OJ’s performing at far above his expected draft value. He’s keeping me afloat, not unlike how he sometimes valiantly tries to do the same for the Grizzlies. It’s a good thing one of the reasons that Rudy Gay isn’t as hot as he should be is, as Brendan so eloquently put it, “OJ freakin Mayo.” This is fine example of hedgin draft strategy as I discussed it over at Points in the Paint some time before the season began. In a similar vein, people who own BOTH Paul Pierce and Ray Allen can capitalize on whoever has the better game for the night. Anyway, going back, I pretty stoked at landing one of the leading candidates for the rookie of the year.

Al Harrington PF/C, New York Knicks (Picked 8th round, 86th overall; current Yahoo! Season Rank: 120) – 9 more PPG and 0.7 more 3PG to average 2.7 3PG compared to last season’s numbers over at GSW. He may be a brat in real life, but from a fantasy perspective it’s a good thing that he landed himself a trade to the New York Knicks. Under the coaching leadership of God’s gift to fantasy basketball, Mike D’Antoni; he’sbeen a great offensive grunt. While currently off the bench for the Knicks, Al’s been able to curb his TOs a tad.

Charlie Villanueva SF/PF, Milwuakee Bucks (Picked 11th round, 131st overall; current Yahoo! Season Rank: 99) – He’s had some injury problems so far. I expected that when I picked him. I was also expecting some upside and so far I’m glad that my team’s been getting the best of it when he does get to play. He’s been a bit of a fantasy conundrum due to his very volatile production and fantasy value. He and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute have been playing tug of war with starts and playing time so far this season. 13.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 0.5 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 0.7 3PG at only 1.8 TOs allow him to flirt with the 1 trey/steal/block club every now and again. As he gets healthier and stays away from further injury, I feel that he will eventually win the bigger share of playing time between the both of them.

Late picks that have just killed me:

Samuel Dalembert – Add him to the list of Philly boys that suffered from the fantasy fall out of the Elton Brand acquisition. While Andre and Iggy have recovered some value in Brand’s absence, Sam has not been as prolific to leap back into fantasy 2nd to 3rd string relevance.

Cuttino Mobley – Heck, the L.A. Clippers didn’t spot his heart condition. How the hell was I supposed to know? He’s now N/A and is simply a dead spot on my roster.

Chris Quinn – I thought he would be the starting PG over at Miami. I was wrong. This is was a bad pick.

Ricky Davis – I drafted in him in just about 268,351,079 of my leagues. This was also a mistake. A bad pick. Ricky Davis has just joined Ron Artest and Jermaine O’Neal on my “Don’t ever draft list.”

Round out my team with…

Peja Stojakovic – I drafted him to win treys in most matchups. Now that he’s healthy, he’s helping me do that.

Michael Beaseley – I actually drafted him higher than OJ Mayo. I thought he would be a nice Marion-lite. Well he is, unfortunately he is more like the Miami Marion-lite than the Phoenix kind.

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Tags: Al Harrington, Allen Iverson, Charlie Villanueva, Deron Williams, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Paul Pierce, Rudy Gay, Samuel Dalembert