Updating My Injury Prone List

Categorized as: Author: Erik, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy
Posted on: February 9th, 2009

Injuries, injuries, and yes more injuries. This year has truly been, well so far, a slobber-knocker cluster of NBA player injuries…

Rant! Rant! Rant!

Blah…blah…blah…

We can bitch and whine about it all we want, but the fact of the matter is, injuries are part of the game of fantasy basketball that we play and love.

Accidents happen. They can happen to anyone, yes even to our beloved LBJs and precious Dwight Howards (knocks on wood and throws salt over shoulder while spinning around 3 times, so it won’t actually happen).

The thing is, however, somehow these things (injuries) happen to some more than others and more often.

Injury Prone List? It’s a list of  names of NBA players who I put little asterisks on when I prepare for fantasy draft day. I generally bump these guys down my personal rankings and draft accordingly from there. An IP list is an essential piece of drafting material that any serious drafter/fantasy manager should have.

Injuries aren’t considered a fantasy stat per se, although they are related to that stat that affects all the player’s stat categories – Games Played. If a player is often hurt and cannot play in NBA games, his statistical averages won’t really matter for your team, will they? When our players miss games, it really stings. It is a boost to know who to stay away from or to be cautious of drafting.

Just because a player missed a several games one season it doesn’t mean he will do so again in the next one. It takes a bit of research to track stuff like historical precedence and nature of past injuries. Does a particular NBA player have nagging and/or recurring injuries that may cause him to miss games regularly within a given season? Answers to all of these questions plus a dash of subjective judgement calls make up the criteria as to whether a player belongs in your IP list.

It’s at this point in the season that I have decided to update my Injury Prone List, God forbid I forget to update it at the end of the season. But really folks, the IP list is best updated at the end of the season*. It’s just that I wanted to walk you through my thought process as I updated mine.

My Injury Prone List (in no particular order)

Yao Ming – If he finishes this season missing less than 10 games, I will wait on him to repeat or improve on it next season before I move him off the list. This season looks promising, but I’m going to stop right here, lest I dare jinx things.

Baron Davis - Last season’s 82 game performance, bumped him into this season’s IP list from my “Don’t Bother Drafting List.” If he misses anymore games this season due to injury, he gets thrown back into the DBDL. Until then, he gets to stay on the IPL.

Caron Butler – He’s a fantasy stud, but he DOES have a bad habit of getting injured and missing games almost every season.

Marcus Camby – Well, he’s Marcus Camby.

Corey Maggette – See Marcus Camby.

Andrei Kirilenko – He’s on the list’s Board of Trustees. Drafting him is like playing a game of “Russian Roulette” with the injuries you expect him to get.

Kenyon Martin – He was sporting knee issues way before they became vogue this season.

Tracy McGrady – When will people learn? – He is the leading candidate to make the jump into my DBDL.

Gerald Wallace – He suffers through a variety of bumps, bruises, and other assorted injuries each year.

Lamar Odom – Shoulder/Arm issues of the past still keep him anchored on this list until further notice.

Dwyane Wade – If he finishes this season missing 10 games or less, then I will bump him off this list.

Allen Iverson – He may be a fantasy disappointment so far, but he’s proving that he can work his way off the list, between last season and this one’s GPs. Honestly, I’m just not sure which A.I. I prefer; the underwhelming healthier version, or the fantasy-explosive injury risk version. I’m a bit torn here.

Recent Additions to the Injury Prone List and Reasons Why

Kevin Martin – Last year’s groin tear and this season’s ankle sprain issues, leads me to consider drafting him on next season’s fantasy draft day with some caution.

Elton Brand – He’s sadly had to join the ranks of the players above. Back-to-back seasons of poor amounts of GPs due to injury is very difficult to ignore.

Andrew Bynum - Copy and paste notes on Elton Brand here. He is younger, but undeniably now belongs on the list.

Chris Kaman – 56 games played last season and only 15 games played in this one, forces my hand to find a lower ranked cave for this caveman in next season’s fantasy draft.

Michael Redd - 53 GPs in 06-07; missed 10 games in 07-08; 33 GPs this season. I am wary to hope that he will bounce back and only miss 10 games next season.

Shaquille O’Neal – He formerly was part of the DBDL, but after he’s showed that he’s got some fantasy “usablity” left in those old big bones gets him an upgrade in status. He’s now just labeled as injury prone.

Andrew Bogut – He may have missed only 4 games last season, but since he only had 66 GPs in 06-07 compounded by this season’s back spasms issue; he sadly must be drafted with a grain of caution next season.

Guys on my “Don’t Bother Drafting List” due to personal biases, but should be considered in your Injury Prone Lists

Ron Artest – Add his percentages stingers to his history of GPs, plus his capability to go off on hiatus to do things basketball unrelated like work on a rap album or get suspended for a season for inflicting bodily harm on fans… I could go on and on.

Jermaine O’Neal – He REALLY has to prove that he can be a consistent fantasy-worthy center for his “injury prone-ness” to merit some fantasy interest on my part.

Gilbert Arenas - He used to be on the IP List, but so far this season he’s now Agent Zero (games played). This is a tough one, but yes I am definitely passing on Gil in next season’s fantasy draft.

~0~

*As I said in the beginning, your Injury Prone List is best updated at the end of the season. I just hope that my thoughts in the process of updating my list have helped you better filter yours.

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