Revisiting This Year's Rookies

Categorized as: Author: Erik, Fantasy Basketball, NBA Basketball
Posted on: March 27th, 2009

I wrote about the “future” in this article awhile back, talking about this season’s crop of rookies and how they were doing at that particular point in time. I also promised that I would revisit them at season’s end. I know the season isn’t over just yet, but I feel that it’s pretty clear at this point in the game who are worth eyeing for next season’s fantasy draft.

The ’09-’10 season will be filled with massive amounts of player movement as teams attempt to lock down their key players and/or sign and trade guys as plans and intentions for the future become more concrete. This year’s rookies, sophomores for the next season, will hardly be affected by this wave  impending player movement swings. Most teams won’t be moving a lot of their youngsters as they look to them to be the future cornerstones of their franchises.

Rookies of the Year

Derrick Rose PG/SG, Chicago Bulls - Possibly this season’s rookie of the year. From a fantasy standpoint, however, Derrick is not as good as gold. He’s ranked 100th and 149th in GMTR’s 8-cat and 9-cat player rater respectively. He can score (16.5 PPG); he can pass (6.2 APG); he can occasionally steal the ball (0.8 SPG); unfortunately he can also turn the ball a bit often as well (2.6 TO/G). He’s played at a reasonable 71 games so far; missing only a few games here and there, and is even back off the for the Bulls in their win over Dwyane Wade – Oh, I meant to say the Miami Heat. In spite of his high turnover-to-fantasy-contribution ratio, I like Derrick for next year. The Bulls are moving in the right direction, building around him and young big men, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah. Ben Gordon will most likely be saying bye-bye and test the free agency market. D-Rose and Kirk will most likely be sharing time at the point guard position and have John Salmons slide down to the SG slot. Derrick’s high TOs won’t be less and less of an issue as he get used to pro-ball. He will eventually diversify his fantasy game. Most likely starting to average at least a steal per game and improve his long-range shot and up it to around 0.6-0.8 treys made per game. I still wouldn’t peg him as primary PG material just yet next season. He’s probably going to be a reasonable second string fantasy guard or even an awesome, ass-kicking third stringer (if you would be so lucky).

Brook Lopez PF/C, New Jersey Nets – As far as fantasy basketball is concerned, Brook takes the rookie of the year honors. He’s ranked 60 in the rater’s 8-cat rankings and 52nd in the 9-cat filter. He’s also my favorite rookie out of this year’s crop of youngsters. He is very light on the TOs cat, averaging only 1.8 a game. He’s got some sweet D averages; with 1.9 BPG and 0.6 SPG. His 12.9 PPG (52.4 FG%, 51% EFG) and 7.9 RPG can be expected to only get better next season. He is a more than solid choice as a secondary center for next season. But the true gravy about this rook is that he’s one of the few, the proud big men who can actually shoot freethrows at an efficiently-admirable clip of 82.3%! Pair him up, with say a Nene Hilario next season and you’ve got some concrete pillars supporting your team’s front line. He and Devin Harris are the future of the Nets. The franchise will do well in the next few years, having a good center and point guard combination. Vince Carter may not remain with the Nets for too long. The franchise has a bright future further down the road. All they have to do now is get rid of a few liabilities (*cough*Yi Jianlian*cough*).

The Grizzlies’ Cubs

O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol; PG/SG and C, Memphis Grizzlies - If someone else other than Derrick Rose will win this year’s NBA rookie of the year, it will odds are be O.J. Mayo. If another Gasol other than Pau will be viable at the center spot on your fantasy roster next season, it will odds are be Marc. O.J. is a young athletic example of a quintessential combo-guard. He doesn’t pass a lot but at a decent amount (3.0 APG); he does like to score (18.4 PPG); he can shoot the three (1.8 trey/G); and he can chip in on D with a steal at least once per game (1.1 SPG). Sadly all of those juicy numbers come with some accompanying drawbacks when it comes to Mayo. 43 FG% and 2.7 TOs per game kinda sting you where it hurts at times. I would love to have O.J. next season as a back-up combo guard on my fantasy team. His TOs are his main fantasy Waterloo as shown by the discrepancy between his 8 and 9 cat GMTR Player ratings. He’s 59th when you filter out the TO cat and 104th when you play with it. The Grizzlies are young, athletic, and slowly learning to play better and better together as a team. They’re only going to get better with age – like a fine wine – unfortunately the ballclub is still loaded with a lot of freshly picked grapes. Marc, I wouldn’t mind to own next year as a third string big man. 7.5 boards, 0.8 steals, 1.1 blocks a night are what I would pretty much expect from late-pick big man in a deep fantasy league. Even though he rebounds less than Kevin Love at the moment, his block averages are what makes him a competitive option to choose over Kev. He does have that Euro-ball-trained skillset intact and he can build on it as he gets used to the NBA. For now the Grizzlies core is Mayo, Gasol, Conley and Gay. Until such time that they can land some major veteran talent, what you see is what you get. They will get better. It’s just a matter of time.

The Inconsistent Point Guards (of the Future?)

Mario Chalmers and Russel Westbrook; PGs, Miami Heat and OKC Thunder - Potential, potential, potential. Both these guys are in the right teams for them to be given the right amount of opportunities (and playing time) to grow and improve on their game. They have no real,competitors for their time. They of course, sometimes, have to be benched to shake off their rookie blunders, but that’s just part of getting acclimated to life as a Pro. Mario is ranked 82nd in the rater’s 8-cat filter and 91st in the 9-cat. He shoots at a low volume, averaging only 10 PPG. He shoots at an unimpressive 42.3 FG%. He’s so-so in the assist department (at least for a PG) at only 4.8 APG. Then what’s so great about him? Well frankly, his 1.9 SPG and 1.4 trey/G are decent contributions, especially since steals are known to be one of the more difficult adding stats to compile in fantasy basketball.  Well Mario’s ideal place in your fantasy team next season would be in an ignore-the-points head to head strategy. If not that, then as a tertiary PG for a small ball team would be good as well. He will hopefully mature a bit more before next season begins, learn to take better care of the ball, and pass to Dwyane Wade a bit  more. I consider him to be reasonably viable.

On to Westbrook. He has a ridiculous amount of turnovers at 3.4 a game. He also shoots the ball from a horrible percentage from the field at 40.2%. He has had some exceptional games where he’s shined  like being able to erupt for 31 points and 11 assists on Feb 21, away at Golden State – fine, it’s GSW and should be taken with a grain of salt – but the fact remains he does have that explosive potential. He’s actually a college combo-guard, being molded by the the Thunder into a PG. He will always have that desire to get to the basket and score (15.7 PPG) but he will be the guy passing the ball to the superstar-to-be, Kevin “Wonder Boy” Durant (5.1 APG). Kind of how Chalmers should be able to get some dimes passing to the rock to Dwyane Wade. Similar to Mario, he will be a suitable 3rd string guard next season, IF he can learn to curb those TOs.

Let’s Wait and See Next Season

Kevin Love PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves – He’s had his moment to shine, in Al Jefferson’s conspicuous absence. It hasn’t been easy nor consistent for this youngster. It’s been rocky. His numbers have had their up and downs. He clearly needs to improve on his defensive intensity as he’s only averaging a meager complement of 0.4 steals and 0.6 blocks per game. His 9 boards a night and an efficient 1.4 turnovers are the highlight of his line for the year. He has had some games that he has managed to show that he can post up in the paint and has also exhibited a decent close to medium range jumper. Al-Jeff will be back in action next season. Hopefully, Kevin will be able to play effectively alongside Minnesota’s true go-to big man. I feel that with Al around there will be a lot less pressure on Kevin in the paint. He can play a solid power forward’s role. Chipping in the rebounding department and providing some help defense in the low block. We will have to wait and see next season how he can jell with Jefferson in the starting lineup.

Eric Gordon SG, L.A. Clippers - Oh the irony! This rookie has been the sliver of consistency on a team that arguably defines SUCK this year. The Clippers have assembled a menagerie of injury prone stars and has no defined style of play as a team. Kenny Smith describes their dilemma here. Fine, he didn’t actually use the word “suck,” but I suppose he was being nice. The franchise will most likely will be making some moves before next season begins. Whether it will be a coaching change or a bunch of player trades and shuffles, we will have to wait and see. The point is the team should not remain in its putrefying state of losses and lack of direction, especially if it wants to get away from its identity as being a perennial lottery team. In spite of the maelstrom of problems the team finds itself in, it looks to me that Eric has one of the more secure positions on the team. They may let go of some of their bigs or even Baron “Don’t Draft Me Coz I’m Always Injured” Davis. The thing is Eric, whose only real competition for SG playing time is Fantasy’s G/F of suck, Ricky Davis; appears to be along with Al Thornton the only youthfu components of the squad that the team can truly build around for the future. This year Gordon has been like a poor man’s O.J. Mayo as far as rookies are concerned. He averages 15.5 PPG and 1.6 trey/G but stings you in the FG and TO departments. He may eventually emerge as the team’s go-to scorer in the future, but his situation as far as fantasy is concerned will be heavily predicated on the moves that Clippers are expected to make soon. Given the right opportunities, however, it wouldn’t be too far fetched an idea that Eric can eventually blossom into a solid and reliable scoring SG in the future.

~O~

Stay tuned to GMTR and my other Blog, Points in the Paint in the next couple of weeks as I will put together a series of posts that basically jot down my notes on various players for this season. It’s the first time I’m going to be doing it, but I think it’s a good idea for any serious fantasy basketball enthusiast to accurately take notes at the end of a particular season for future use. Cheers!

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Tags: Brook Lopez, Derrick Rose, eric gordon, Kevin Love, Marc Gasol, Mario Chalmers, OJ Mayo, Russel Westbrook