Give Me The Rock
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With only two weeks left, I think we’re far enough along to compile our lists for the biggest disappointments of the 2008-09 fantasy season. We’re talking about the guys who absolutely destroyed your fantasy teams and kept you up late at night as you filled your pillow with tears.
Since it’s no fun to sit in my mother’s basement making lists by myself (although it IS how I passed my high school years), I recruited the help of Nels and Erik. I asked these guys to provide their top 3 fantasy disappointments this year based on a player’s actual performance, expectations going into the year, where they were drafted, and of course, any painful personal experiences along the way.
Here are the guys that disappointed us the most this season, starting with:
Erik
1. Elton Brand (drafted at 7.2 on average in the mock draft round-up -> 124/175 on our 8 and 9-cat rater, respectively) – A disappointment in more ways than one. The injuries could have been forgivable, but when he did get to play he wasn’t even that effective either. There will now be a huge ass question mark looming over this once solid big man’s head for next season. “Will he be fantasy stud he once was? Can he?”
2, Shawn Marion (6.2 -> 63/43) – Once tagged one of the most underrated guys in Fantasy’s Top 5, but that was a long time and two teams ago. I knew he wasn’t going to be great in Miami, but add up his injuries to his underwhelming performances and you just want to hurl if you drafted him somewhere in the first round. He moved to the Raptors and he became a so-so version of his old self at best. He will drop down next season rankings and from formerly underrated, he will now just finally be simply rated.
3. Allen Iverson (14.2 -> 104/155) – He dazzled and tantalized people last year in Denver with his solid performance, only to do a 180-degree turnaround over at Detroit. Demoralizing. He won’t stay in Motown. So what now?
Erik even provided an honorable mention:
Ricky Davis (113 -> 260/277) – This one’s personal. I was so high on him being signed by the Clippers that I drafted in him like 6 of this season’s 8 Yahoo leagues I played in. I even pimped him to no end in my old site. He made look like a fantasy basketball non-expert. I am done with him; done with the hopes that he can make a comeback and be that great late round sleeper. Adios! El-crapo!
Nels
1. Josh Smith (19.0 -> 71/99) – While Greg Oden (see below) was technically a “bigger” disappointment (if you go by actual ranking), Oden was only drafted in the mid-60′s (5th round or so), where as Smith was going in 2nd round in most drafts, so the fact that he’s currently a 9th round value in 9 category leagues earns him the Biggest Disappointment award in my eyes (at least out of the guys that weren’t already taken by Patrick and Erik).
Smith’s FG% is actually up, but he’s taking less shots, and his FT% has dropped into Center territory terrible. Despite playing almost exactly the same amount of time as last season, Smith is down almost 2 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, and – the biggest hit to his fantasy value – 1.2 blocks.
2. Rudy Gay (32.6 -> 60/88) – Again, Oden is still the bigger disappointment by rank, but I think everyone who took Gay this season had very high hopes. Then along came OJ Mayo (65/110), who’s actually rated about the same as Gay if you don’t count turnovers.
3. Greg Oden (63.5 -> 176/197) – The disappointment here comes from the 54 games played. The 8.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks were probably about what most people were thinking would be the low-end numbers (and it was the optimists bringing up his average draft position). 56% from the field is awesome, and the 64% free throw shooting is about what you expect from a seven-footer. It’s too bad that health is already such a major concern for someone who’s only played 54 games professionally, but I’d still say Oden is worth taking in the last few rounds of your draft next year. Someone else will probably cross their fingers and take him before that, though.
Patrick
1. Gilbert Arenas (15.8* -> 203/168) – There are two camps on Gilbert Arenas. Group one consisted of people who saw right though his bag of lies and balky knee and knew that his supposed December 2008 return date was filled with as much fantasy as the Lord of the Rings novels. The second group consisted of naive rubes who took Arenas at his word because Washington wouldn’t have signed him to a $111 million contract if there was something seriously wrong with his body. Obviously. That’d be an insane move by the Wizards…
Sadly, I fell into the second group.
2. Shawn Marion (6.2 -> 63/43) – Even before he was traded to the heat, we all knew that Marion’s game was enhanced by Steve Nash and the Suns offense. After the trade, it was clear that he had to work much, much harder to get his shot off and the result was a 7% decrease in his field goal percentage while he still saw his points drop from 15.8 to 14.3 a game. Still, the rest of his game was there: he was rebounding well (11.2 after joining the Heat) and was swiping about 2 balls a game. With Wade back this season, everything was going to be good again for Marion right? Right? Not even close. Marion’s stats continued their decline this season, his points, rebounds, steals and blocks are all way down from his career averages. He also went from making 1+ three a game with the Suns to basically nothing with the Heat and then Raptors. Oh, and that trade to Toronto which was supposed to help out his game? Besides points (at a whopping 13.6), his stats are down across the board since joining the Raptors. Marion sits at #63 on our 8-cat player rater, which is not cool for a guy who was, on average, a first round pick.
3. Allen Iverson (14.2 -> 104/155) – There were a few guys I thought about putting in the list instead of Iverson, including the last guy Nels’ list. In the end, I went with Iverson because of the crap he’s pulling now, shutting it down for the season with a “bad back.” We expected to see some age-related regression in Iverson’s game, but he just fell off a cliff this year, playing in 54 games with 17.4 points, 5 assists and 0.5 threes a game. Compare that to his year with Denver in 07-08: 82 games played, 26.4 points, 7 assists, and 1.2 threes and it’s clear he’s been a disaster for anyone who drafted him.
* All the mock drafts were obviously done before news of the Arenas surgery broke
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Tags: Allen Iverson, Elton Brand, Gilbert arenas, Greg Oden, Josh Smith, Ricky Davis, Rudy Gay, Shawn Marion
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