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Picking Up The Pieces: Milwaukee Bucks

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Categorized as: Author: Erik, Fantasy Basketball, Milwaukee Bucks
Posted on: September 14th, 2009

Injuries, Salary Cap, Team/Franchise Rebuilding, Bad Long-term Contracts – Those are the “Four Horsemen” that ravaged through the NBA this off-season and left many teams’ rosters, well to be polite, really fugly as far as fantasy basketball is concerned.

So now we denizens of the fantasy basketball Universe are left to pick up the pieces; as we try, ever so constantly, to find those diamonds in the rough.

Scavenging

I will take a look at a few teams, figure things out, and assess the damage. What can we expect from these new-look rosters? – Getting hit in the face with a baseball bat, does tend to give someone a “new look”, doesn’t it?

The Milwaukee Bucks are a “small market” team and did not want to overstep the ever-shrinking salary cap. They lost the three most talented, un-injured guys on their roster from the 2008-09 who valiantly tried to carve out those rare wins.

Richard Jefferson is now with the San Antonio Spurs. Charlie Villanueva is now with the Detroit Pistons. Ramon Sessions is now with the Minnesota Timberwolves. All that reasonable real-life and fantasy talent is now gone.

Who’s left? They kept the guys who were all too noticeably absent for many games last season due to injury. Michael Redd (ACL and MCL) and Andrew Bogut (Back) are still not 100%. The Bucks drafted a young, promising, raw, potentially erratic/great point guard in Brandon Jennings. They still have Luke Ridnour. They signed Hakim Warrick and Carlos Delfino. Luc Mbah a Moute should show some improvement.

Sifting through its roster is like making a list for an all-late-round-draft team.

You know a team has a bad roster, when Luke Ridnour – LUKE RIDNOUR! – and Hakim Warrick are the guys that appear to be the most appealing to draft. Want an exciting draft? Then go after last season’s injured stars.

For now, Redd and Bogut should still be considered high risk picks. While both of them are potentially capable providing the most value out of the Bucks’ roster, but their “comeback upside” may not be enough to mitigate their risks enough to prevent them from being drafted very late. Redd was a good scorer. Redd was good at lighting it up from beyond the arc. Heck he was a good FT% booster too at some point. I will stop using “was” and and go back to referring to him in the present tense, on his first regular season game.

Hakim Warrick should be a pleasant surprise to many of his owners. He should provide better value than most last round picks. I bet you never thought you would ever see “Hakim Warrick” and “Sleeper” in the same sentence. Well join the club, that makes 2.3 million of us. Maybe not a true sleeper, but he should still outperform his off-the-bench numbers last season over at Memphis. I would consider him as a must-pick in deep leagues.

08-09: 82 games; 24.5 mins; 11.6 PPG; 5.0 RPG; 0.8 APG; 49.1 FG%; 71.1 FT%; 0.6 SPG; 0.5 BPG; 1.2 TO

Minutes, points, rebounds, can all be expected to rise a bit this season. We should expect him to start in the forward position of Scott Skiles’ choosing.

As for the PG time-share situation in the back court, both guys have their own organic drawbacks or risks. Luke may still have a bit of the “force” left in him, but his age and durability raise eyebrows. Jennings, on the other hand, has inexperience riding on his shoulders. Is one year in Europe enough to prep this kid for NBA play? Talent, skill, I.Q. for the game; Bran-Jen’s got ‘em. The question is “Can all of that translate into a serviceable fantasy PG?”

Luke should be good for about five dimes, 1+ steals, and the occasional three. Brandon should be able to dish a bit more, score a bit more; but turn the ball over a whole lot more as well. And of course, there’s always that “rookie wall” that you’ll be afraid he will slam into at some point in the season. Both guys should still be workable late round PG picks.

Keep your eyes on: Luc Mbah a Moute, Carlos Delfino and Joe Alexander – They will most likely go undrafted, but watch them over the Bucks first 10 games and check their production. They may end up being deep-league viable.

Regardless of how bad Andrew Bogut may be doing or how long it takes him to get back to 100%, it is doubtful that Dan Gadzuric, Fransisco Elson, or Kurt Thomas will be rocking your world this fantasy season.

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  • http://fourpointplay.weebly.com/ Henry

    You guys are super harsh on Bogut. All the news coming out of Milwaukee is good on that front. He really knows how to play good offensive ball, the Bucks just need to run some sets through him. Anyone who has seen him play in the Aussie team knows this. I've got him as a solid backup center and I think he'll go for 16 and 9. If he could nudge his blocks up, he'd be a semi-monster (http://fourpointplay.weebly.com/bucks.html)

  • http://www.givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    I actually kind of agree with you Henry. Word is that Bogut has been on a strenuous conditioning routine all summer and hopes to be back from injury by the start of training camp. Even if that timetable is a little optimistic, realistically he should be back for the start of the season at least.

    I don't think we're disagreeing with you about Bogut's ability on the court. He put up a 14.4 and 9.8 a couple years ago while playing in 78 games. And even his blocked shots went from a disappointing 0.5 a game in his sophomore season to a very good 1.7 in 2007-08. I think Bogut might be a steal in a lot of drafts this season – a guy you can realistically use as a low end first center who will still be available in the late rounds of many drafts.

    Unfortunately, I think Bogut has entered “guilty until proven innocent” territory as far as his health goes. I'm no doctor, and in fact blood makes me scream like a little girl, but a stress fracture in your back seems like something you better be damn sure is fully healed before getting back out on the court to bang with the big boys. He is taking it slow and, unless he shares DNA with Yao Ming, things appear to be progressing well for him. But I'd still rather have some one else reach for him in a draft assuming he's healthy than to pick him up myself and cross my fingers all year.

  • http://fourpointplay.weebly.com/ Henry

    You guys are super harsh on Bogut. All the news coming out of Milwaukee is good on that front. He really knows how to play good offensive ball, the Bucks just need to run some sets through him. Anyone who has seen him play in the Aussie team knows this. I've got him as a solid backup center and I think he'll go for 16 and 9. If he could nudge his blocks up, he'd be a semi-monster (http://fourpointplay.weebly.com/bucks.html)

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  • http://www.givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    I actually kind of agree with you Henry. Word is that Bogut has been on a strenuous conditioning routine all summer and hopes to be back from injury by the start of training camp. Even if that timetable is a little optimistic, realistically he should be back for the start of the season at least.

    I don't think we're disagreeing with you about Bogut's ability on the court. He put up a 14.4 and 9.8 a couple years ago while playing in 78 games. And even his blocked shots went from a disappointing 0.5 a game in his sophomore season to a very good 1.7 in 2007-08. I think Bogut might be a steal in a lot of drafts this season – a guy you can realistically use as a low end first center who will still be available in the late rounds of many drafts.

    Unfortunately, I think Bogut has entered “guilty until proven innocent” territory as far as his health goes. I'm no doctor, and in fact blood makes me scream like a little girl, but a stress fracture in your back seems like something you better be damn sure is fully healed before getting back out on the court to bang with the big boys. He is taking it slow and, unless he shares DNA with Yao Ming, things appear to be progressing well for him. But I'd still rather have some one else reach for him in a draft assuming he's healthy than to pick him up myself and cross my fingers all year.

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  • http://twitter.com/Pitpblog Points in the Paint

    Henry I am not harsh. I am cautious. I project him to be a double-double contributor. 14-10 range. 1.4 BPG. Great FG%. All of that is when he's close to 100%. That's his upside.

    Now the downside. FT% will not likely get better. More expectations from him offensively, will translate into him going to the line MORE, and that will hurt the FT% cat even more. 2.4 TO is the minimum I project from him. Again, more touches may result in more lost possessions. Sadly, there is some rust. Obviously. He will get called on some “illegal defense” and the like.

    Put his upside and his downside together (even if you exclude injury recovery), he still merits being a late-middle round pick at least. Add the injury + re-injury risk factor, then he slides down to a late round choice.

    It's just I am taking a conservative approach to looking at him. If people target him as their first choice for third string center, then it is a matter of expecting less in order for him to “wow” us with his capability to over deliver.

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  • http://twitter.com/Pitpblog Points in the Paint

    Henry I am not harsh. I am cautious. I project him to be a double-double contributor. 14-10 range. 1.4 BPG. Great FG%. All of that is when he's close to 100%. That's his upside.

    Now the downside. FT% will not likely get better. More expectations from him offensively, will translate into him going to the line MORE, and that will hurt the FT% cat even more. 2.4 TO is the minimum I project from him. Again, more touches may result in more lost possessions. Sadly, there is some rust. Obviously. He will get called on some “illegal defense” and the like.

    Put his upside and his downside together (even if you exclude injury recovery), he still merits being a late-middle round pick at least. Add the injury + re-injury risk factor, then he slides down to a late round choice.

    It's just I am taking a conservative approach to looking at him. If people target him as their first choice for third string center, then it is a matter of expecting less in order for him to “wow” us with his capability to over deliver.

  • http://fourpointplay.weebly.com/ Henry

    Harsh, cautious.. same thing =) You don't think that he is up to the task, whereas while I agree he will take a hit with FT% and TOs, his upside is potentially enormous. He is playing on a team which lacks any ability to score after the losses in the off season and he has shown previous potential to get it done (Patrick mentions his blocks in 07-08). Late-middle is fine, I just didn't get that vibe from your piece.

    Perhaps I'm just more of a risk taker. Read, I took D Wade at number two last year. Probably wasn't the best option, but it worked out ok. The same couldn't be said for Arenas. Let's just hope Bogut is more Wade and less Wizard this season when I take him in the 8th.

    I agree with you on Warrick as well. If he gets a start, he could be a gun.

  • http://fourpointplay.weebly.com/ Henry

    Harsh, cautious.. same thing =) You don't think that he is up to the task, whereas while I agree he will take a hit with FT% and TOs, his upside is potentially enormous. He is playing on a team which lacks any ability to score after the losses in the off season and he has shown previous potential to get it done (Patrick mentions his blocks in 07-08). Late-middle is fine, I just didn't get that vibe from your piece.

    Perhaps I'm just more of a risk taker. Read, I took D Wade at number two last year. Probably wasn't the best option, but it worked out ok. The same couldn't be said for Arenas. Let's just hope Bogut is more Wade and less Wizard this season when I take him in the 8th.

    I agree with you on Warrick as well. If he gets a start, he could be a gun.

  • http://fourpointplay.weebly.com/ Henry

    Harsh, cautious.. same thing =) You don’t think that he is up to the task, whereas while I agree he will take a hit with FT% and TOs, his upside is potentially enormous. He is playing on a team which lacks any ability to score after the losses in the off season and he has shown previous potential to get it done (Patrick mentions his blocks in 07-08). Late-middle is fine, I just didn’t get that vibe from your piece.

    Perhaps I’m just more of a risk taker. Read, I took D Wade at number two last year. Probably wasn’t the best option, but it worked out ok. The same couldn’t be said for Arenas. Let’s just hope Bogut is more Wade and less Wizard this season when I take him in the 8th.

    I agree with you on Warrick as well. If he gets a start, he could be a gun.

  • http://fourpointplay.weebly.com/ Henry

    Harsh, cautious.. same thing =) You don't think that he is up to the task, whereas while I agree he will take a hit with FT% and TOs, his upside is potentially enormous. He is playing on a team which lacks any ability to score after the losses in the off season and he has shown previous potential to get it done (Patrick mentions his blocks in 07-08). Late-middle is fine, I just didn't get that vibe from your piece.

    Perhaps I'm just more of a risk taker. Read, I took D Wade at number two last year. Probably wasn't the best option, but it worked out ok. The same couldn't be said for Arenas. Let's just hope Bogut is more Wade and less Wizard this season when I take him in the 8th.

    I agree with you on Warrick as well. If he gets a start, he could be a gun.

  • http://fourpointplay.weebly.com/ Henry

    Harsh, cautious.. same thing =) You don't think that he is up to the task, whereas while I agree he will take a hit with FT% and TOs, his upside is potentially enormous. He is playing on a team which lacks any ability to score after the losses in the off season and he has shown previous potential to get it done (Patrick mentions his blocks in 07-08). Late-middle is fine, I just didn't get that vibe from your piece.

    Perhaps I'm just more of a risk taker. Read, I took D Wade at number two last year. Probably wasn't the best option, but it worked out ok. The same couldn't be said for Arenas. Let's just hope Bogut is more Wade and less Wizard this season when I take him in the 8th.

    I agree with you on Warrick as well. If he gets a start, he could be a gun.

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