Perhaps I'm just more of a risk taker. Read, I took D Wade at number two last year. Probably wasn't the best option, but it worked out ok. The same couldn't be said for Arenas. Let's just hope Bogut is more Wade and less Wizard this season when I take him in the 8th.

I agree with you on Warrick as well. If he gets a start, he could be a gun.

Perhaps I'm just more of a risk taker. Read, I took D Wade at number two last year. Probably wasn't the best option, but it worked out ok. The same couldn't be said for Arenas. Let's just hope Bogut is more Wade and less Wizard this season when I take him in the 8th.

I agree with you on Warrick as well. If he gets a start, he could be a gun.

Perhaps I'm just more of a risk taker. Read, I took D Wade at number two last year. Probably wasn't the best option, but it worked out ok. The same couldn't be said for Arenas. Let's just hope Bogut is more Wade and less Wizard this season when I take him in the 8th.

I agree with you on Warrick as well. If he gets a start, he could be a gun.

Perhaps I'm just more of a risk taker. Read, I took D Wade at number two last year. Probably wasn't the best option, but it worked out ok. The same couldn't be said for Arenas. Let's just hope Bogut is more Wade and less Wizard this season when I take him in the 8th.

I agree with you on Warrick as well. If he gets a start, he could be a gun.

Now the downside. FT% will not likely get better. More expectations from him offensively, will translate into him going to the line MORE, and that will hurt the FT% cat even more. 2.4 TO is the minimum I project from him. Again, more touches may result in more lost possessions. Sadly, there is some rust. Obviously. He will get called on some “illegal defense” and the like.

Put his upside and his downside together (even if you exclude injury recovery), he still merits being a late-middle round pick at least. Add the injury + re-injury risk factor, then he slides down to a late round choice.

It's just I am taking a conservative approach to looking at him. If people target him as their first choice for third string center, then it is a matter of expecting less in order for him to “wow” us with his capability to over deliver.

Now the downside. FT% will not likely get better. More expectations from him offensively, will translate into him going to the line MORE, and that will hurt the FT% cat even more. 2.4 TO is the minimum I project from him. Again, more touches may result in more lost possessions. Sadly, there is some rust. Obviously. He will get called on some “illegal defense” and the like.

Put his upside and his downside together (even if you exclude injury recovery), he still merits being a late-middle round pick at least. Add the injury + re-injury risk factor, then he slides down to a late round choice.

It's just I am taking a conservative approach to looking at him. If people target him as their first choice for third string center, then it is a matter of expecting less in order for him to “wow” us with his capability to over deliver.

I don't think we're disagreeing with you about Bogut's ability on the court. He put up a 14.4 and 9.8 a couple years ago while playing in 78 games. And even his blocked shots went from a disappointing 0.5 a game in his sophomore season to a very good 1.7 in 2007-08. I think Bogut might be a steal in a lot of drafts this season – a guy you can realistically use as a low end first center who will still be available in the late rounds of many drafts.

Unfortunately, I think Bogut has entered “guilty until proven innocent” territory as far as his health goes. I'm no doctor, and in fact blood makes me scream like a little girl, but a stress fracture in your back seems like something you better be damn sure is fully healed before getting back out on the court to bang with the big boys. He is taking it slow and, unless he shares DNA with Yao Ming, things appear to be progressing well for him. But I'd still rather have some one else reach for him in a draft assuming he's healthy than to pick him up myself and cross my fingers all year.