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Bonus! The amazing 2008-09 fantasy percentages spreadsheet is now up. It contains the standardized field goal, free throw and three point percentages for every player in the league last season.
Double Bonus! Let’s talk about three point percentage.
I’m all about the percentages as my last post about the best and worst shooters in the league demonstrated more clearly than anyone cared to know.
And in talking with people (I do that occasionally), there appears to be a growing number of fantasy owners with leagues that use three point percentage as an additional statistical category. It makes some sense considering the three has become such a big part of the NBA game. You figure it’s at least as important (if not more) than free throw percentage, although if my league did use three point percentage, I’d want to separate out two point percentage as well and use that instead of the all-encompassing FG%.
Anyway, for those of you in leagues that count three point percentage as a category, here is a list of the 20 best and worst players for three point percentage last season. As was the case in my last post, percentages have been standardized based on the number of shots a player took on a per game basis (E3% is the standardize percentage). Stats are from the 2008-09 season, with a minimum of 30 games played to make the list. While many of these guys will see a regression to the mean as they say (the good won’t be as good and the bad won’t be as bad this year), it will still give you an idea on which players to target to improve your team’s 3pt percentage.
The Larry Bird I’m Not Going to Take off My Warm-Up Jacket and Still Punk Your Ass List
| Name | 3M | 3A | 3PT% | E3% |
| Troy Murphy | 2.2 | 4.9 | 45.0% | 50.0% |
| Jameer Nelson | 2.0 | 4.3 | 45.3% | 49.0% |
| Mo Williams | 2.3 | 5.2 | 43.6% | 48.3% |
| Eddie House | 1.9 | 4.2 | 44.4% | 47.4% |
| Bobby Simmons | 1.6 | 3.7 | 44.7% | 46.5% |
| Anthony Morrow | 1.3 | 2.7 | 46.7% | 46.1% |
| Steve Blake | 2.0 | 4.8 | 42.7% | 46.0% |
| Roger Mason | 2.0 | 4.8 | 42.1% | 45.2% |
| Kevin Martin | 2.3 | 5.4 | 41.5% | 45.0% |
| D.J. Augustin | 1.5 | 3.4 | 43.9% | 44.9% |
| Ray Allen | 2.5 | 6.2 | 40.9% | 44.9% |
| Matt Bonner | 1.5 | 3.3 | 44.0% | 44.8% |
| Steve Nash | 1.5 | 3.3 | 43.9% | 44.7% |
| Danny Granger | 2.7 | 6.7 | 40.5% | 44.6% |
| Kelenna Azubuike | 1.3 | 2.8 | 44.8% | 44.5% |
| Mehmet Okur | 1.3 | 2.8 | 44.6% | 44.2% |
| Raja Bell | 1.7 | 4.0 | 42.1% | 43.8% |
| Ben Gordon | 2.1 | 5.1 | 41.0% | 43.7% |
| Danilo Gallinari | 1.1 | 2.6 | 44.4% | 43.5% |
| Chauncey Billups | 2.1 | 5.0 | 40.8% | 43.3% |
The most efficient three point shooter in the NBA last year was not Ray Allen, Kevin Martin or Danny Granger. No, it was power forward and Nels’ man crush Troy Murphy, thanks to the 2.2 threes a game he hit at 45% shooting. His career three point percentage is 40%, so while he’s no slouch from behind the arc, don’t draft him this season expecting him to the best three point shooter in the league again. But who knows, maybe center Mehmet Okur will take his place.
As I mentioned briefly in our draft guide, last year Mo Williams became a point guard in name only. With LeBron James on the ball so much, Williams saw a decrease in his assists from 6.3 a game during his last season in Milwaukee to 4.1 a game with the Cavs. But at the same time, he almost doubled his threes to 2.3 a game. Overall, his fantasy value ends up being about the same, but draft him this year expecting more shooting guard types stats.
Guys like Steve Blake, Roger Mason and Kelenna Azubuike will likely see a decrease in their three point efficiency this year simply due to a decrease in minutes and a result, three point attempts. But someone like Danilo Gallinari could be one of the top three point guys in the league this year even if he only gets about 25 minutes off the bench for the Knicks.
It might not be pretty, but it’s effective
The Antoine Walker I’m Gonna Keep Shooting Or Die Trying List
| Name | 3M | 3A | 3PT% | E3% |
| Deshaw Stevenson | 1.1 | 4.0 | 27.1% | 23.4% |
| Baron Davis | 1.5 | 5.0 | 30.2% | 25.1% |
| Marquis Daniels | 0.3 | 1.7 | 20.0% | 27.5% |
| Devin Harris | 0.9 | 3.2 | 29.1% | 28.4% |
| Nate Robinson | 1.7 | 5.2 | 32.6% | 28.9% |
| Louis Williams | 0.8 | 2.7 | 28.6% | 29.3% |
| Corey Maggette | 0.5 | 1.9 | 25.3% | 29.7% |
| Raymond Felton | 0.7 | 2.5 | 28.5% | 29.8% |
| Andre Iguodala | 1.0 | 3.2 | 30.7% | 30.1% |
| Deron Williams | 1.0 | 3.3 | 31.0% | 30.2% |
| Donte Greene | 0.5 | 1.8 | 26.0% | 30.3% |
| Manu Ginobili | 1.6 | 4.8 | 33.0% | 30.4% |
| Caron Butler | 1.0 | 3.1 | 31.0% | 30.6% |
| Dwyane Wade | 1.1 | 3.5 | 31.7% | 30.6% |
| Bobby Jackson | 0.8 | 2.8 | 30.5% | 30.9% |
| Chucky Atkins | 0.4 | 1.7 | 26.3% | 31.1% |
| Stephen Jackson | 1.7 | 5.2 | 33.8% | 31.1% |
| Ricky Davis | 1.0 | 3.1 | 31.5% | 31.3% |
| Wilson Chandler | 1.3 | 3.8 | 32.8% | 31.5% |
| Earl Watson | 0.3 | 1.3 | 23.5% | 31.5% |
DeShawn Stevenson is the league’s least efficient three point shooter (4 attempts a game at 27%), but he only played 32 games last season. For sheer volume of suckitude, Baron Davis would make just about any list based on his performance last year. His 3pt% is no exception. Devin Harris is a career 31% shooter from three, so don’t expect him to improve much if any this season. However, Manu Ginobili’s all-around performance was likely affected by his injury and he should see his 3pt% bounce back into the 38-40% range of his career average. Dwyane Wade’s range has gotten significantly better over the past 4 years, but he still has a ways to go until he’s a league average three point shooter.
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For fantasy-related analysis that’s even better than this, check out the Four Fingers of Fantasy Draft Guide, now available everywhere the Internet exists.
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