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    • Yes, You Can Draft Dwight Howard and Still the Win Free Throw Percentage Category in a Rotisserie League

    Author Icon for Patrick

    Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy
    Posted on: September 28th, 2009

    …here is how you do it.

    The Ground Rules

    • Roto scoring system
    • 12-team league
    • 10 starters per team (PG/SG/G/SF/PF/F/C/C/UTIL/UTIL)
    • A serpentine draft
    • I have the 8th pick in the draft
    • I’m using the insane mock draft spreadsheet from BuserSports. I cannot draft anyone with an average mock draft position lower than my current pick (if I’m at pick 50, the AVP for my pick has to be 50 or higher).
    • With one notable exception, the free throw stats I’m using come from the Four Fingers Draft Guide projections for 2009-10. Among everything else, we projected free throw percentage and attempts for the top 250 fantasy players for the upcoming year.
    • And for an added degree of difficulty, I’m taking Dwight Howard in the first round (8th overall) and using his free throw percentage numbers from last season (59.4%) which is ever so slightly worse that what we are projecting for him this year. I don’t want to make this too easy.

    But Wait. How Do You Know Your Team Would Win the Free Throw Percentage Category?

    Good question. I went back and pulled the final standings from six roto leagues I had participated in over the past few years. I threw it all in a giant bucket and looked at the free throw percentages from the best, middle, and worst teams in the leagues. Averaging the six leagues together:

    The best team had on average: 80.7% free throw percentage
    The middle team had on average: 77.6% free throw percentage
    The worst team had on average: 73.0% free throw percentage

    So, the goal is to create a team of 10 starters with a combine 80.7% free throw percentage or higher.

    The Draft

    1st Round (8th Overall)

    Dwight Howard (59.4% FT%, 10.8 attempts per game)
    Current Team FT%: 59.4%

    2nd Round (16th Overall)

    Chauncey Billups (90.8% FT%, 5.0 attempts per game)
    Current Team FT%: 69.3%

    3rd Round (32nd Overall)

    Kevin Martin (86.7% FT%, 10.3 attempts per game)
    Current Team FT%: 76.2%

    4th Round (40th Overall)

    Mehmet Okur (80.2% FT%, 4.7 attempts per game)
    Current Team FT%: 76.8%

    5th Round (56th Overall)

    Ray Allen (94.0% FT%, 3.2 attempts per game)
    Current Team FT%: 78.4%

    6th Round (64th Overall)

    O.J. Mayo (87.8% FT%, 4.0 attempts per game)
    Current Team FT%: 79.4%

    7th Round (80th Overall)

    Michael Beasley (80.4% FT%, 2.9 attempts per game)
    Current Team FT%: 79.4%

    8th Round (88th Overall)

    T.J. Ford (87.7% FT%, 3.8 attempts per game)
    Current Team FT%: 80.1%

    9th Round (104th Overall)

    Marvin Williams (82.6% FT%, 4.1 attempts per game)
    Current Team FT%: 80.3%

    10th Round (112th Overall)

    Corey Maggette (83.3% FT%, 8.1 attempts per game)
    Current Team FT%: 80.8%

    ***
    The Final Team

    PG: Chauncey Billups
    SG: Kevin Martin
    G: Ray Allen
    SF: Michael Beasley
    PF: Marvin Williams
    F: Corey Maggette
    C: Dwight Howard
    C: Mehmet Okur
    UTIL: O.J. Mayo
    UTIL: T.J. Ford

    This team’s final FT%: 80.8%.

    So, can we finally stop talking about how drafting Dwight Howard means you are going to come in last in free throw percentage? In the 6 roto leagues I pulled, this team would have come in first in four of them, tied for first in another, and came in third in the final one. Yes you can have the best free throw percentage in the league with Dwight Howard anchoring your team.

    51830694

    Full Disclosure

    Ok, this experiment was actually a lot harder than I thought it was going to be going into it. There are not a lot of combinations of players this works with in a 10-starter league with 2 centers. Kevin Martin, Ray Allen, and TJ Ford were all pretty much necessary at their respective parts of the draft to make this work. Mehmet Okur and possibly Brook Lopez are the only half-decent centers who can be paired with Howard on this team. Alternatinely, I could have skipped the center position and went small until the end of the draft when Brad Miller was available. But the goal was to also create a balanced team that would actually make use of some of Howard’s strengths.

    The team is still a little guard heavy and contains a lot of guys that wouldn’t necessarily be my first choice in a draft. For simplicity sake, it also doesn’t take into account injuries which of course are bound to happen. But there are plenty of players who could fill in as temporary FT stopgaps in the case of an injury over the course of a season. For example, if/when Kevin Martin gets hurt, Francisco Garcia and Beno Udrih are both career 80%+ free throw shooters. Neither shoots anywhere close to as many free throws as Martin, but could temporarily fill in for him while not killing this team’s FT%.

    Realistically, it would be incredibly difficult to win the FT% category with Howard. However, simply paring Howard with Billups and Kevin Martin gives you a combined FT% of 76.2%, which based on my quick roto analysis, puts you in the middle of the pack in an average roto league. So drafting Howard doesn’t mean roto league death. In fact, it’s fairly easy to get back to league average and, yes, even possible to win the free throw percentage category.

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    • http://www.givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I didn't mention in the post that if you set your sights a little lower (say a team FT% of 80.0%, which would have still come in first in three of the six leagues I was in) then you have a lot more draft options. For example, swapping Charlie Villanueva for OJ Mayo in the 6th round would have resulted in a team FT% of 80.5% while providing a more balanced team. There are a ton of guys you can pair with Howard and still have an overall FT% of 79-80%.

    • http://twitter.com/Pitpblog Points in the Paint

      It is a strong free throw shooting team, indeed. My question now is, after slogging through a gamut of options to survive Dwight's FT%; how does the team hold up against others in terms of the whole ROTO picture. I cannot see Dwight keeping the team competitive in blocks all by his lonesome and the same goes with rebounds.

      Can you do a follow-up post with a mix that can win a Roto league altogether or at least be competitive?

    • doneycat

      It's what needed to be said – wish I had thought of it! I hope the peoples realize that with a little less myopic drafting, you could have a team that could finish 3rd in FT% (still 10 points) and not get killed in boards and blocks, and maybe have guys who will approach 75 games.

      With that lineup, I could go to battle in H2H most weeks – not the perfect D-12 H2H lineup, but doable.

    • http://www.givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Well, it'd be a lot of work to figure out exactly how they would compare across all categories, mostly because the other categories are counting ones and take into account games played and bench players much more than the percentages do. But just eye balling things, with Dwight, Kevin Martin, Ray Ray, Mehmet Okur, and Mayo, this team would be at the top of the league in points scored and threes. They'd do pretty well in assists and steals because of all the guards. The teams rebounds would be fairly weak and their blocks would be downright horrible, which obviously negates the point of drafting Howard in the first place.

      But the point of the post was to see if a Dwight Howard led team could lead the league in FT% and that point has been proven. The team as built is totally competitive, abet as a small ball one that is built in a very strange way.

      Here are 3 small changes that would completely change the dynamic of this team: 1) Draft Brook Lopez in the 2nd round instead of Billups, 2) Take a PG in the 4th instead of Okur (possibly Mo Williams), and 3) draft Charlie Villanueva instead of OJ Mayo. All of a sudden you have a big ball team that is competitive in blocks and boards. I don't have my spreadsheet in front of me, but the FT% of this team would probably be in the 79% range. It probably would not win the league in FT%, but in the 2nd-4th range is likely.

    • http://www.givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I didn't mention in the post that if you set your sights a little lower (say a team FT% of 80.0%, which would have still come in first in three of the six leagues I was in) then you have a lot more draft options. For example, swapping Charlie Villanueva for OJ Mayo in the 6th round would have resulted in a team FT% of 80.5% while providing a more balanced team. There are a ton of guys you can pair with Howard and still have an overall FT% of 79-80%.

    • http://twitter.com/Pitpblog Points in the Paint

      It is a strong free throw shooting team, indeed. My question now is, after slogging through a gamut of options to survive Dwight's FT%; how does the team hold up against others in terms of the whole ROTO picture. I cannot see Dwight keeping the team competitive in blocks all by his lonesome and the same goes with rebounds.

      Can you do a follow-up post with a mix that can win a Roto league altogether or at least be competitive?

    • doneycat

      It's what needed to be said – wish I had thought of it! I hope the peoples realize that with a little less myopic drafting, you could have a team that could finish 3rd in FT% (still 10 points) and not get killed in boards and blocks, and maybe have guys who will approach 75 games.

      With that lineup, I could go to battle in H2H most weeks – not the perfect D-12 H2H lineup, but doable.

    • http://www.givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Well, it'd be a lot of work to figure out exactly how they would compare across all categories, mostly because the other categories are counting ones and take into account games played and bench players much more than the percentages do. But just eye balling things, with Dwight, Kevin Martin, Ray Ray, Mehmet Okur, and Mayo, this team would be at the top of the league in points scored and threes. They'd do pretty well in assists and steals because of all the guards. The teams rebounds would be fairly weak and their blocks would be downright horrible, which obviously negates the point of drafting Howard in the first place.

      But the point of the post was to see if a Dwight Howard led team could lead the league in FT% and that point has been proven. The team as built is totally competitive, abet as a small ball one that is built in a very strange way.

      Here are 3 small changes that would completely change the dynamic of this team: 1) Draft Brook Lopez in the 2nd round instead of Billups, 2) Take a PG in the 4th instead of Okur (possibly Mo Williams), and 3) draft Charlie Villanueva instead of OJ Mayo. All of a sudden you have a big ball team that is competitive in blocks and boards. I don't have my spreadsheet in front of me, but the FT% of this team would probably be in the 79% range. It probably would not win the league in FT%, but in the 2nd-4th range is likely.

    • http://www.deciphersoccer.com ncizzle

      This is why i think sometimes that DHoward should be top 5 in H2H leagues, you can balance out your FT% and give yourself a huge boost in boards, points, fg% and blocks

    • doneycat

      Well you had pick #5 in the GMTR Mock, there was your chance! You can make a case for D-12 over Kobe in that spot.

    • http://www.deciphersoccer.com ncizzle

      I know, it was the pressure, i was under the gun, really… i had no time…i swear! :)
      it still feels wrong to take Dhoward over Kobe…but in H2H it might have been a savvy move, we'll tell by the end of the season :)

    • http://www.deciphersoccer.com ncizzle

      This is why i think sometimes that DHoward should be top 5 in H2H leagues, you can balance out your FT% and give yourself a huge boost in boards, points, fg% and blocks

    • doneycat

      Well you had pick #5 in the GMTR Mock, there was your chance! You can make a case for D-12 over Kobe in that spot.

    • http://www.deciphersoccer.com ncizzle

      I know, it was the pressure, i was under the gun, really… i had no time…i swear! :)
      it still feels wrong to take Dhoward over Kobe…but in H2H it might have been a savvy move, we'll tell by the end of the season :)

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    • urbanstate94109

      Those projections are kind of funny. Your team would actually only have an 80.1% free throw percentage based off of last years per game numbers. I am curious why they think so many of your guys will improve ft%.

      Also your team would not do too well overall. You would destroy in points and do well in 3's, but you'd be severly lacking in assists, steals, blocks, and rebounds. You would also be average in fg% and your ft% would be above average. Proving once again, that taking Dwight Howard in the first round of a fantasy league is extremely stupid.

    • urbanstate94109

      Those projections are kind of funny. Your team would actually only have an 80.1% free throw percentage based off of last years per game numbers. I am curious why they think so many of your guys will improve ft%.

      Also your team would not do too well overall. You would destroy in points and do well in 3's, but you'd be severly lacking in assists, steals, blocks, and rebounds. You would also be average in fg% and your ft% would be above average. Proving once again, that taking Dwight Howard in the first round of a fantasy league is extremely stupid.

    • http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

      I think perhaps you skimmed the article a bit, and ignored Patrick's comment immediately preceding yours. He is well aware of the drawbacks of drafting Howard. The point was to prove that you could in fact draft Howard and still win the FT% category. The title of the post was not “Draft Dwight Howard and Still Win Your Rotisserie League.” He also proposed a few changes to the draft that would make a team competitive in blocks and rebounds and still also competitive in FT%.

    • http://www.givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Thanks for the comment urbanstate, I’m always happy to elaborate on this type of stuff. As Nels said, the goal of this thing was to see if you could win the FT% category with Dwight Howard on your team, which has been accomplished. As you mentioned and I mentioned in the comments, this team would not be the most ideal team to draft because you'd basically be wasting Howard's talents. With a few changes, you could draft a big ball team around Howard that might not win FT%, but would be very competitive and make better use of Howard's rebounding and blocks. Maybe I'll go into more detail on that in another post.

      Regarding our projections, 80.1% is really not that far away from 80.8%. Among the 9 starters not named Dwight Howard, our projections have 4 of them increasing their FT% over last season (Beasley, Ford, Williams, and Maggette) and 3 of them with a decreasing FT% (Okur, Allen, and Mayo). None of these guys have a % which is wildly different from last season. In addition, we have people like Beasley, Mayo and Williams taking more free throws compared to last season, which typically happens as players age. None of that seems crazy optimistic to me, especially considering my goal was to pair the best FT shooters in the league with Howard. Guys who we project will see a big drop in FT% this season simply aren’t going to make this team.

      I happen to be playing in at least one roto league this season. I’m happy to put my money where my mouth is by selecting Howard and attempting to win both the FT% category and the league itself. Win or lose, it should be interesting.

    • http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

      I think perhaps you skimmed the article a bit, and ignored Patrick's comment immediately preceding yours. He is well aware of the drawbacks of drafting Howard. The point was to prove that you could in fact draft Howard and still win the FT% category. The title of the post was not “Draft Dwight Howard and Still Win Your Rotisserie League.” He also proposed a few changes to the draft that would make a team competitive in blocks and rebounds and still also competitive in FT%.

    • http://www.givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Thanks for the comment urbanstate, I’m always happy to elaborate on this type of stuff. As Nels said, the goal of this thing was to see if you could win the FT% category with Dwight Howard on your team, which has been accomplished. As you mentioned and I mentioned in the comments, this team would not be the most ideal team to draft because you'd basically be wasting Howard's talents. With a few changes, you could draft a big ball team around Howard that might not win FT%, but would be very competitive and make better use of Howard's rebounding and blocks. Maybe I'll go into more detail on that in another post.

      Regarding our projections, 80.1% is really not that far away from 80.8%. Among the 9 starters not named Dwight Howard, our projections have 4 of them increasing their FT% over last season (Beasley, Ford, Williams, and Maggette) and 3 of them with a decreasing FT% (Okur, Allen, and Mayo). None of these guys have a % which is wildly different from last season. In addition, we have people like Beasley, Mayo and Williams taking more free throws compared to last season, which typically happens as players age. None of that seems crazy optimistic to me, especially considering my goal was to pair the best FT shooters in the league with Howard. Guys who we project will see a big drop in FT% this season simply aren’t going to make this team.

      I happen to be playing in at least one roto league this season. I’m happy to put my money where my mouth is by selecting Howard and attempting to win both the FT% category and the league itself. Win or lose, it should be interesting.

    • urbanstate94109

      Nels and Patrick, I was not disputing the fact you can win free throws with DH on your team. I agree with you that it is possible and never stated otherwise. I was merely making another point, that by doing that, you basically assure yourself that you will not finish in the top half of your league.

      If you can win a league with Dwight Howard as a first round pick I would be impressed (much less, win a league and win free throw percentage). I think the secret is getting big men that shot good free throws to accompany Howard, like Brook Lopez or Turiaf.

    • urbanstate94109

      Nels and Patrick, I was not disputing the fact you can win free throws with DH on your team. I agree with you that it is possible and never stated otherwise. I was merely making another point, that by doing that, you basically assure yourself that you will not finish in the top half of your league.

      If you can win a league with Dwight Howard as a first round pick I would be impressed (much less, win a league and win free throw percentage). I think the secret is getting big men that shot good free throws to accompany Howard, like Brook Lopez or Turiaf.

    • Anonymous

      Nels and Patrick, I was not disputing the fact you can win free throws with DH on your team. I agree with you that it is possible and never stated otherwise. I was merely making another point, that by doing that, you basically assure yourself that you will not finish in the top half of your league.

      If you can win a league with Dwight Howard as a first round pick I would be impressed (much less, win a league and win free throw percentage). I think the secret is getting big men that shot good free throws to accompany Howard, like Brook Lopez or Turiaf.

    • urbanstate94109

      Nels and Patrick, I was not disputing the fact you can win free throws with DH on your team. I agree with you that it is possible and never stated otherwise. I was merely making another point, that by doing that, you basically assure yourself that you will not finish in the top half of your league.

      If you can win a league with Dwight Howard as a first round pick I would be impressed (much less, win a league and win free throw percentage). I think the secret is getting big men that shot good free throws to accompany Howard, like Brook Lopez or Turiaf.

    • urbanstate94109

      Nels and Patrick, I was not disputing the fact you can win free throws with DH on your team. I agree with you that it is possible and never stated otherwise. I was merely making another point, that by doing that, you basically assure yourself that you will not finish in the top half of your league.

      If you can win a league with Dwight Howard as a first round pick I would be impressed (much less, win a league and win free throw percentage). I think the secret is getting big men that shot good free throws to accompany Howard, like Brook Lopez or Turiaf.

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